Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 01/3/2018 17:31

Hi Chip,

Sat behind you last Thursday but unfortunately could not hang around whilst we endured a fifth presentation (a re-run of that greedy man Engelbrecht and his Crusader).

Clearly Boyd was going to make limited commitments, he (or Teo) has had a re-think since July 2016 and is now inclined towards efficiency (reduced AISC) rather than significantly higher increased production. On the way out I had a brief chat with the "only +15%" questioner (who is an ADVFN BB lurker) and we're both of the view that what what we need to put a fillip in the share price is a small restarter dividend soon.

Did you take the chance to bounce that topic off Boyd?

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 01/3/2018 11:12

Cheers Chip, looks like a bargain lets hope progress continues and it is reflected in the share price toward the backend of the year or sooner 🙂

[chipperfrd] 01/3/2018 10:41

Following the 6m Financials I get the following valuation ratios for MML:

PER (Price/Earnings) = 2.5PBV (Price/Book Value) = 0.46PSR (Price/Sales) = 0.52Ev/EBITDA = 1.02PCF (Price/CashFlow) = 1.25



This continues to be the PM stock with the lowest valuation compared to 65 of it's peer group.
Chip

[galeforce1] 28/2/2018 13:00

Chipperfrd - thanks for your very helpful and interesting reply, and to all the contributors who make this a very useful BB.

[chipperfrd] 28/2/2018 12:34

Galeforce1,

The average P/E across 66 producers that I am monitoring is 26.4x. Admittedly, a lot of them are large outfits listed in N.America so tend to have higher multiples than the LSE or the ASX.

I normally work on 15x as a reasonable rule-of-thumb unless LoM is very short.
Chip

[galeforce1] 28/2/2018 11:29

Chipperfrd and others -

Assuming the gold price holds roundly where is, what do you feel would be a reasonable market cap for MML? It's now around USD70m. That's theoretically a forward P/E of about 1.5 (assuming the AISC falls to $900). Could that be expected to rise to P/E of 5?

[katie priceless] 28/2/2018 08:40

I will be moving to the Philippines when i get a buyer for my house, i think one or two posters on here live there.

[roguetreader] 28/2/2018 07:51

Half Year results are out

[deka1] 27/2/2018 18:09

Hi Chip , thank you ,I am getting along ok, since the T.I.As I had last june,it has taken a long time to get used to the way I am now, I have no visible injuries , but I have some unseen leftover effects ,in my throat , and my head , still coming to terms with these things.
But all in all things are ok, thanks again for your concern old pal.

[chipperfrd] 27/2/2018 11:18

You are welcome guys!

Deka, I hope all is well with you.

Worth noting that BT is totally focused on improving margins and NOT increasing oz produced. So it is the steady accumulation of free cash flow and only a modest improvement in production that we should be expecting after the completion of the service shaft.

He stated in the presentation that lifting capacity will increase by c. 30% once the new shaft is in operation but that production may only improve by c. 15% in order to set the mine on a long term sustainable rate of production. So the old production targets under the previous management are totally out of the window.

Given the latest quarterly figures that would indicate a milled rate of c. 143kt/qtr and production at c. 29koz/qtr, ie around 110-120koz pa over the next financial year to June 2019.

Given that the last two quarters have seen FCF at c. US$7m/qtr, and assuming exploration, development and G&A remain at current levels with a steady erosion of capital outlays once E15 is finished, the level of FCF should improve into double figure per quarter with consequential build up of cash reserves.

That is with gold at current levels - always a difficult one to call!! However, on the above basis, all else being equal, AISC would fall towards sub US$900/oz on my model.

We will have to see how it all works out. But given the torrid time the company and shareholders have been through, perhaps at long last some light is appearing at the end of this particular tunnel!

Just my opinions of course.
Chip

[deka1] 25/2/2018 20:27

Capt bligh, Chip, Thanks very much for sharing the feedback,much appreciated,
Dek

[ilostthelot] 25/2/2018 12:04

Thanks for the feedback Chip and captain.

[chipperfrd] 23/2/2018 11:33

I had a wide-ranging discussion with him after the presentation.

To be honest, there was not much that I was unaware of, but he came across as very forthright and experienced. I really enjoyed talking to him.

There is no way that he will over-promise, so hopefully the market skepticism and poor sentiment will start to improve the current extreme under-valuation.

I am quite encouraged and will consider adding a bit more as we approach the end of FY18.

Chip

[roguetreader] 23/2/2018 11:16

Cheers Chip / CB
Thanks for the update, it looks as if plans are still on track. Lets hope BT stays around a while longer, he is no spring chicken so I'm hoping he doesn't have any imminent retirement plans.
RT

[chipperfrd] 23/2/2018 10:49

Good morning RT.

Boyd Timler gave a good presentation. I really liked him.

His clear focus is to grow free cashflow and to build up a war chest of cash. Now that E15 is within 4 months of operation he feels confident that MML is now close to achieving consistent sustainable production at a growing margin over AISC.

He has been working to correct poor infrastructure in order to reduce pressure on the mine. All this has been funded from cashflow but is now almost complete and will reduce costs going forward.

Nothing much about Cambodia other than the opportunity to get in early to a largely unexplored and unexploited mineralised geographical area without the problems inherent in certain other countries in S.E.Asia.

He is very aware of previous management over-promising and under-delivery so we can expect conservative forward guidance.

No current plan to re-list in London although it has been under consideration.

No resumption of dividends until a good level of cash has been restored coupled with sustainable free cashflow. But given the single country/single mine nature of the company, the right accretive opportunity might well jump ahead of future dividends.

Certainly a very experienced chap who has spent the last 18 months working to correct production issues at the mine. Hopefully the market will begin to recognise these improvements, particularly once E15 is operational.
Chip

[roguetreader] 23/2/2018 08:49

Chip / TF
assuming you made it to the presentation any news or feedback for the long term perusers of this BB
RT

[chipperfrd] 21/2/2018 16:39

I am planning to be there TF.

Hope to see you there.
Chip

[tightfist] 21/2/2018 16:33

Hi, apart from me is anyone attending to Pro-Active tomorrow evening to listen to the latest?

Cheers, tightfist

[aim_trader] 15/2/2018 14:48

Medusa Mining to present at Proactive One2One Mining Forum on 22nd February. For details and registration, click here:

[tightfist] 14/2/2018 11:56

Next Thursday's Pro-Active registration to listen/network with Medusa (Boyd Timler?), Cora, etc im Mayfair, London:

hXXps://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/proactive-one2one-forum-22nd-february-tickets-42232259826?invite=&;err=29&referrer=&discount=&affiliate=&eventpassword=

See you there? tightfist

[chipperfrd] 13/2/2018 16:48

Thanks TF!

[tightfist] 13/2/2018 15:19

Hi All,

The updated presentation is interesting, in that it is clearer that the Drilling (in particular from chamber 45E) seems quite successful – see slide 15. The new date for the Resources/Reserves cut-off of 31.12.2017 is also interesting. It looks as though the stage (IMHO) is set for a significant reduction in AISC and an increase in production and resources, to boot.

I came back from Cambodia yesterday so it is maybe unsurprising that I am more positive about the Cambodian developments than others. The prospective tenements start about 14km West from the edge of 1.1MOz Okvau which is being financed and put into production soon by Emerald (ASX:EMR). Also Riversgold (ASX:RGL, Como WA HQ) floated on ASX in Autumn 2017 after raising A$8m; Cambodia is a lower priority for them currently; they are hoping be awarded the area North of Okvau.

Take a look at:
hXXps://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180110/pdf/43qqtb0lkc43l4.pdf

The area has a history of artisanal working but no modern mines. According to Wiki the per-capita GDP of Cambodia is only 46% of the Phillipines (which incidentally is 92% lower than the UK). This bodes well for Cash Costs and NPV/IRR; IMHO it looks a good prospective place to expend a modest amount of cash and potentially diversify, now that the E15 Service Shaft/cash flow is finally drawing towards a close.....


Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 05/2/2018 09:27

Quarterly update presentation

[deka1] 01/2/2018 09:56

Cheers , thanks for the opinions guys