Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[roguetreader] 31/1/2018 13:54

Concur with Andy and Chip's comments.

Although the shaft date drifting is a disappointment it was not wholly unexpected given the history; obviously (as Andy states) it has been a significantly much more difficult and costly project than they ever expected.

The finances, apart from the relatively small hiccup of additional Capex on the shaft look on track.

With the above 'almost' behind us, my primary interest now, is seeing them replace the depleted reserves and provide confidence in the 'Mine's' future, where this would be the final brick in what is/has been a long recovery. I see this as way more important in the short-medium term than the Cambodian development
RT

[chipperfrd] 31/1/2018 12:21

Yes Andypar, I come to similar estimates of financial performance.

I calculate All-In Costs on a quarterly basis and these have been within c. $20/oz of their reported AISC for over 14 quarters now with the current financial year showing a considerable improvement over FY17.

Likewise free cash flow. So far FY18 is shaping up to be far better than FY17, even with the degree of exceptional capital works outflow that is still required to complete the service shaft.

Pity that the shaft completion has drifted back to the end of FY18, but after such an extended delay to the original expansion plan for Co-O, I guess a few more months is now not such a big deal.

Hopefully, the new reserve statement will show that their exploration spend has fully covered mine depletion. We will have to see how that looks when it is released this quarter.

A higher production guidance looks to be a given for FY19 once the new shaft is fully commissioned and AISC can also be expected to drop as capital spend falls back to sustaining levels.

With gold at current levels all these factors ought to finally bear fruit at the bottom line and (hopefully) start to improve the share price at long last!

New management appear to have taken a firm grip and should be congratulated for finally getting this company back on the right track.
Chip

[andypar] 31/1/2018 11:00

Good results for the quarter. 95k oz target for the year should be hit.

Financials (all figs are approx)
Cash generation was $6m, all of this was absorbed in movements on inventories, debtors and creditors, so cash remained unchanged at $16.7m.

If POG stays around $1350 and a similar performance in next quarter I would forecast cash to increase to $22m.

The bad news is the new shaft is delayed another 3 mths. Clearly the company massively under estimated the difficulty of sinking this shaft.

Looking ahead to around August time we should hopefully be producing at around 32k oz per quarter, ASIC of $900 (pog $1350)and generating FCF of $12m per quarter. MML have been serial target missers, but looks like we are finally gettting closer to delivery. The last 2 good quarters hopefully is a sign of the future.

IF mml deliver the current market cap of £60m should increase significantly. Also worth noting is that MML has only $4m of borrowings which is an impressive achieivement, considering the amount of money required over the last few years to redevelop the mine to the deeper levels.

I would like management to start talking about cashflow, dividends, shareholders returns etc towards the end of the year. Personally the Cambodian news was a disappointment for me. I want all focus on the current mine and the share price where 90% of shareholders are still underwater.

[eintracht] 31/1/2018 02:07

Quarterly report out. Pretty similar to the last quarter, all slight improvements accept the ASIC which has gone up.

[atlantic57] 25/1/2018 13:28

Thanks Chip then we will be into currency wars big time.Every nation wants a lower currency the uk included.

[chipperfrd] 25/1/2018 09:37

Thanks Tightfist :-)

[chipperfrd] 25/1/2018 09:34

Atlantic,

The words and actions of the Trump administration have been for a lower dollar.
The new tax cuts will increase their annual deficits to $1.0T+
The Chinese have stated they intend to buy less US debt
The US Treasury Secretary stood up at Davos yesterday and stated they wanted a lower dollar.
etc, etc.

[roguetreader] 25/1/2018 07:55

Cheers Tightfist

[abbotslynn] 24/1/2018 22:31

Gold on the rise again

[atlantic57] 24/1/2018 22:27

Can anyone answer a basic question.
Why is the Dollar so weak at the moment.

i am also highly amused that as usual just a few months ago i was being bombarded by experts telling me the pound was heading for parity .Now the same experts are telling me that the pound will soar.

[bluelynx] 24/1/2018 20:54

Chip, Thanks for the link very informative,

Cheers BL

[bluelynx] 24/1/2018 17:49

Ageed concerning the 10 yr US Bond yields.

Also the DXY US Dollar index is below the important 90 level

and WTI Crude Oil above $64.

all bearish for US.

[chipperfrd] 24/1/2018 16:10

I agree BL.

Worth watching bond yields as prices appear to have topped out.

US 10Y are now at 2.66% and rising, with what would appear to be countless reasons why buying even more US debt looks to be crazy.

So there will be a point when the maintenance of all that cheap debt from the last 10 years begins to really hurt and impact sky-high stock prices as well as the balance sheets of Government and Corporations.

'Look out below'!
Chip

[bluelynx] 24/1/2018 15:50

Chip, Thanks for that observation. What I currently find confusing is the quite astonishingly bullish outlook by many normally bearish people, even Alex Jones of Info Wars has turned bullish on USA GDP growth. All this with record high debt (consumer, corporate and government) all at record levels. Plus massive bubbles in equities, real estate and bonds. Go figure, this hopefully is a good contrarian sign that a top is in place for a correction of all the bubbles mentioned above. Sure is going to be interesting times ahead.

[deka1] 24/1/2018 15:17

Absolutely agree Chip, I posted much the same on RUGT yesterday.

[chipperfrd] 24/1/2018 11:42

The current rise in gold is all about the drop in US$ and not about a rising gold price against the other major currencies. In fact, gold has fallen against GB£ (actually the £ has risen v the $ and therefore gold) and that is reflected somewhat in the Sps of miners listed in non-US exchanges.

From my point of view it is looking to be a good time to buy the gold metal with GB£.

[bluelynx] 24/1/2018 11:13

General gold related observation here, currently gold is on a very encouraging move up. But oddly there have been a number of articles stating that they expect strong world growth. Even the hyper negative King World News has an article by Art Cashin saying expect USA GDP to be 5%+. One would expect this to be pro equities and negative for gold But, the current improving gold price may be going up in expectation of inflation. Whats the opinion of others on this thread, is it possible to have strongly growing world economies and Stock markets with an improving gold price.

[geeseflynorth1] 21/1/2018 18:25

The articles give a bit more background on what is occurring. So now we know Medusa has a 'long-term strategic diversification plan'.

Have mixed feelings regarding 'diversification', as i was investing in a gold mining company. Is not clear to me where diversification will lead. A wait and see i suppose.

Also am very fond of dolphins.

[deka1] 21/1/2018 17:03

Thanks GFN , I thought it worth posting the whole article.


Australian mining firm Medusa Mining has announced plans to begin exploration for gold, copper and oil in Kratie province’s Prek Kampi commune, about 35 kilometres west of a stretch of the Mekong River that is home to endangered river dolphins.

Medusa Mining signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Sea Resources, which was granted exclusive exploration rights in Prek Kampi by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in June last year. The Prek Kampi region is home to the endangered Irrawaddy River Dolphin, of which about 80 remain in the Mekong River.

Boyd Timler, CEO of Medusa Mining, said yesterday that the exploration itself would be relatively harmless, and the project would be unlikely to affect the dolphins.

“We are aware that the dolphins are in that area of the river,” he said.

“Any water [near the mine] is small little streams . . . it’s nowhere near the river.”

Timler added that Sea Resources was handling the day-to-day operations of the exploration, including hiring a firm to conduct an environmental impact assessment and community engagement report.

A press release by Medusa Mining said the company would stand to earn a 70 percent stake in the project after contributing up to $3 million for exploration over a period of 4 years. The earn-in agreement is scheduled to be finalised March 1.

Un Chakrey, communications manager for World Wildlife Fund, which has spearheaded the campaign to protect the dolphins, said his organisation was lacking details about the project’s size and exact location, and declined to comment on the exploration agreement.

“We don’t have any information on whether or not [the land where the mining may take place] is protected,” he said. “I think [Medusa Mining] just started an environmental impact study.”

Negative environmental impacts of mining can include erosion, contamination of soil and groundwater, loss of biodiversity and far-reaching impacts on river networks.

Spokesmen for the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Mines and Energy declined requests for interviews yesterday.

[geeseflynorth1] 21/1/2018 14:44

and another little glimmer of light

hxxp://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/mining-exploration-set-region-home-endangered-river-dolphins

[roguetreader] 21/1/2018 14:26

Cheers gfn1

[geeseflynorth1] 21/1/2018 14:14

Found this little item which may be of interest, shredding a tiny little glimmer of light.

hxxp://www.khmertimeskh.com/50102013/mining-firms-sign-agreement-on-prek-kampi/

[tightfist] 16/1/2018 10:01

Hi Noirua,

Yes, the gold investing backdrop is improving and the specifics of MML are (IMO) looking better than for several years past, before the dark days of the PH-B era, etc.

Cheers, tightfist

[noirua] 16/1/2018 01:38

Gradually progressing as MML has tried before. This time it is set on an improving platform for gold and the mining sector in general.