Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 07/5/2018 19:54

Well done RT, “IIRC” is sometimes a cop-out for doing proper research. The took the decision to put the contract with a national company which has given rise to QA/QC issues. There has also been loose reference to “scope creep” taking place re: E15.

Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 07/5/2018 13:27

To satisfy my own memory recall more than anything else, I can confirm the Lower Shaft Steel (LSS)fabrication is being undertaken by contractor in Manila, as reported in the 2017 December Qtr update.

[tightfist] 04/5/2018 20:01

It's good to see the brief shaft sinking update from MML and the rather good photo - BT is going the distance to communicate progress, when the opportunity arises.

O/T chapv: I believe the opportunity in Indonesian ARS is considerable; IMO the current time is a good entry point (bouncing off the last placing price of 11p) with plenty of significant news flow expected in the next few months inc. the first BFS. There is an ARS BB with very knowledgable and sharing posters to reinforce a quality BoD with plenty of skin-in-the-game, unlike MML!

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 04/5/2018 08:27

MEDUSA MINING LIMITED ABN: 60 099 377 849
Suite 10, 100 Mill Point Road South Perth WA 6151
PO Box 860 Canning Bridge WA 6153
Telephone: [phone] Facsimile: 618-9474 1342
Email: [e-mail] Internet: www.medusamining.com.au ANNOUNCEMENT 04 May 2018
UPDATE ON E15 SERVICE SHAFT (ASX: MML)

Medusa Mining Limited is pleased to provide the following update regarding the E15 Service Shaft. E15 has reached a project milestone on 3 May 2018.
As stated in the March 2018 Quarterly release, the E15 Shaft final bench was blasted at the end of April. Ground support bolting and mucking has taken until the 3rd of May.
The E15 Shaft has now been sunk to its designed depth of 506 meters, 27 meters below level 10.
The next phase will be the installation of the shaft hardware and services over the next months. The commissioning date is anticipated to be the end of September 2018

[geeseflynorth1] 04/5/2018 07:58

progress is being made on shaft

[chapv] 03/5/2018 11:04

Any of you got an opinion on ARS?

[tightfist] 03/5/2018 08:04

Hi RT,

Like you I recall reading that the (less hi-tech?) steelwork was to be sourced locally, hence my comment about the company choosing it's suppliers - but we are not told the actual issue.

I too am hopeful of a move upwards based purely on cash generation, but I am an optimist.... The ongoing issue is that the BoD have minimal skin-in-the-game - I am involved in Stratex (STI) which is frustrated by the same issue - guess what is now a higher priority on my checklist!

Unless PoG collapses or Phillipines politics goes AWOL, IMHO there is little doubt that how/why MML will not become a healthy cash-cow in the next few quarters. But I have thought that for at least two years!

Dividends are a very obvious way of making that very public, but like you I sense that it mat be Autumn 2019 before such a move - by that time the local initiatives may become a cash drain, who's to say?!


Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 02/5/2018 19:10

Hi TF
I was sure that I had read that MML's Philippines supplier had been responsible for the delays re the steel fabrication, but on re-reading the report and presentation, there's nothing that states this, so not sure where I got that thought from. So, as you state it is not clear as to the cause of the delay, maybe there will be clarification at some point going forward.

Dividends would definitely bolster the share price and shareholder confidence, but I don't foresee commitment to this until E15 is in the rearview and we have a few quarters with a strong cash build, post E15 full commission. I'm hoping that a steady cash build on its own in the next and coming quarters will start to see the share price move north, without a commitment to Dividends.

RT

[tightfist] 02/5/2018 10:14

Hi RT,

As we all know Confidence is hard-won and quickly lost - MML completely lost investor Confidence but BT is doing a slow-and-steady (and under-promising?) repair job which is well advanced. We know little about the latest lower steelwork delays but ultimately a customer chooses it's suppliers and their quality accreditation... after the Chinese SAG mill saga there was a lot of emphasis on a world-class South African supplier of the E15 headframe. I think the lower steelwork is locally sourced? - but not sure.

As for share price appreciation I agree that one can still buy super-cheap. The realistic kicker for share price price appreciation is in my view dividend resumption; this signifies ongoing cashflow generation AND BoD confidence in the future. I am still hopeful of a first move in that direction at the AGM this Autumn, but realistically it's more likely in CY2019.

The re-listing on the LSE would IMO also help a lot but they don't need the cash - a Spotify-style listing doesn't seem to be on Andrew Teo's cards?!


Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 02/5/2018 09:39

IMO the current share price is a factor of confidence in management. Boyd Timmler has done a good job since coming on board and confidence in the company has improved. However that does not mean it has been regained in full, there have been too many management misses over the last few years. Management will have to deliver in full and then some more before the share price gets too where it should be, IMO. The latest delay to E15 was unfortunate and looks to have been outside of MML's control, but with the current history it again delays when management are able to prove they can meet targets. The upside you can still buy super cheap!!
RT

[rhuvaal2] 01/5/2018 20:27

I don't know but maybe relisting in London, when the time is right...

[tightfist] 01/5/2018 14:25

Any thoughts? I havn't checked the numbers bur IIRC the outstanding Payables had been allowed to increase in H1 and they are less than transparent about the capex split between (rapidly reducing) capex on E15 the (completed) TSF and general equipment replacement (presumably continuing on a similar trajectory). I am expecting this to result in AISC falling significantly during FY2019, especially as production increases.... (IMO double whammy of reducing numerator and increasing denominator?).

There is the overlaying curiosity of the MML share price IMO that is another issue.... it will get corrected to a degree by the market sooner or later. What could be the catalyst for that??

Cheers, tightfist

.

[melksham] 01/5/2018 11:26

I agree, another very solid result. Again, the share price doesn't reflect this. The last two quarters have seen cash surpluses (production minus AISC) of $US6M and $US7M but cash position has only increased from approximately $US16M to $US18M. This might be holding back the share price If cash position was $US29M I think things would be different.
Any thoughts?

[tightfist] 30/4/2018 10:55

Hi RT,

Looks pretty solid to me too. It was released on ASX in the middle of the day(?) but there was hardly any trading afterwards? Maybe I am looking at the wrong data.....

The E15 Service Shaft blind-sinking must finally be complete any day now.


Key out-takes for me:

“For the full year to 30 June 2018, the Company expects to deliver gold at the upper limits of the revised production guidance with AISC at the lower end of the revised costs guidance….

In Co-O’s 10 years of production history, the original pre-production reserves have been replaced four-fold, showing the robustness of this deposit. Currently Medusa has a better understanding of the Co-O ore body, a higher level of confidence in the resources and reserves and the deposit remains open to the east and down plunge on the main structures.....

With the completion of the E15 Shaft and un-constrained access to Level 9 and 10, geology can establish newer, more ideally located drilling stations for continued expansion of the Co-O resources".

In Q3 there was almost a 100% increase compared with Q2 in Resource drilling (length and cost). The Durian prospect (pp 14, 15) sounds interesting; I think it’s the first insight we have seen.


Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 30/4/2018 09:14

Looks pretty solid report to me

[deka1] 30/4/2018 07:25

qtr report out , below from the comment section.

due to a significant amount of mining occurring outside of Reserve, accurate reconciliation has only been possible for some local areas of the mine. However, the GHV vein has performed consistently with exceptional high-grade stopes (> 10 g/t broken ore), justifying the application of the very high cutting factors used. This is now being observed in the development on Level 9 where very high grade stopes are being encountered (particularly towards the east). • Co-O is an operating mine and there are no perceived modifying factors that would have a material impact on the global Ore Reserve viability. • Mine performance has been considered and factored into the Ore Reserve parameters used in this study

Luvly jubly

[chipperfrd] 24/4/2018 17:00

iltl,

The list is Table#2 in the header of my comparison thread:-



AAZ is currently 12th.

I try and update the table every weekend.
Chip

[andypar] 24/4/2018 11:03

GF1 - The cash was $16.7m at the end of Dec. Hoping for it to be approx $20m at end of March. We will soon see :o)

[ilostthelot] 24/4/2018 08:53

Where does AAZ rank in that list chip ?

[chipperfrd] 20/4/2018 10:43

galeforce,

I agree. I check the trailing PER based on the Dec17 financial report every week (along with a load of other metrics - and other producers). Current PER ~ 3.2x.

Just for info:
PER ~ 3.2
PBV ~ 0.58
PSR ~ 0.66
PCF ~ 1.58
Ev/EBITDA ~ 1.31

Which makes it the most undervalued out of the 66 PM producers that I track.
Chip

[galeforce1] 20/4/2018 10:11

It's disappointing that the E15 shaft may be delayed to September. But in other ways things look good here. It's nice to see the cash position is now US$ 16.7m (up from $12.47m at Dec. 31st.).
The production guidance of 85-95,000 for full year 2017-18 looks conservative, as just under 50k ounces were produced in H1.
Even if H2 production comes in at 45k ounces Medusa should show a profit of c. US$25m after tax for 2017-18, with a market cap of USD 89m looks fine. That would be a P/E of around 3.5

[roguetreader] 20/4/2018 08:43

Looks like E15 sinking nearly done but delays with steel fabrication of the shaft i.e. Chips contingency is going to be needed.

[geeseflynorth1] 20/4/2018 08:04

new presentation in Hong Kong.