Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[roguetreader] 06/7/2017 07:31

Arbiter now holding 23.5M shares / 11.3%

[tightfist] 05/7/2017 13:55

Hi RT,

Thanks to you and miningnut for the interesting view of possibilities going forward. Arbiter & Ruffer are collectively building a useful stake; maybe that will make Andrew Teo more attentive.

I am not looking for such modest $775 AISC at this stage. I want to take a look at the Impairment Test and accounting treatment highlighted in item (5). [Chasing-down asset valuation driven by a falling Market Cap seems like a vicious spiral until/unless you reach a bottom].

Maybe Chip can add his three-penny worth on this point!

Cheers, tightfist

[galeforce1] 05/7/2017 09:11

So, let's say that things begin to go significantly better for Medusa from now on - the security situation in Mindanao improves, the new shaft completes by October, production rises to 125k ounces p/a, the gold price stays firm. In that situation what might Medusa's profits be?

Market cap is only about £37m here. Could annual profits approach that kind of level?

[deka1] 04/7/2017 07:24

Hi RT, thanks for the above , and thanks to Miningnut on hot copper,

[roguetreader] 03/7/2017 08:03

Excellent posted summary view from Miningnut on Hotcopper today:

'Upcoming announcements:
1) 5July. Change in substantial shareholding. Arbiter has bought another 2.1mil shares to increase its holding to 23.5mil shares(11.3%). So together Arbiter/Ruffer have 24.2%. Turnover today would indicate that the shorts totalling 1.9mil shares( www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=MML ) could be in trouble as they'll have to compete against Arbiter each morning for the loose overseas shares as they'll be no sellers each day after that initial flurry.
2) 24July. Martial Law lifted indicating a lowering of the security threat on Mindanao.
3) 31July. Quarterly activities report. Main items: a) Production for Q4 to be around 24k ozs - this will confirm that the operation is back on track and that cash flow will be enough to avoid any capital raising that has been a threat to shareholders over the last six months. b) Confirmation that good progress has been made on development of the E15 Service shaft - hopefully it has now been completed to at least Level 8 at 378metres depth from surface and that the blind sink to Level 10 has commenced. They haven't updated guidance(Jul17 previously) for over seven months as to which month it will be operational so it would be great if they would now state which month, in the next six, that it will be finished - what a marathon! My money is on October.
www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/thuthukani-engineering-designs-hoisting-infrastructure-to-medusa-mining-2017-06-26
c) Hopefully they will provide production/cost guidance for FY18(as happened this time last year) - I'm hoping for ~140k ozs at AISC $US~775. Looking for a realistic estimate and not a 'soft' estimate - Management will get no points from me for deliberately under-estimating and then over-delivering as Management bonuses should be based on achieving a stated realistic target. d) Good drilling results from the mine down to Level 16.
4) 18August. Reserves and Resources Statement for FY17. This report was released on 28Sept last year but I expect it will be brought forward this year as it resulted in an auditor's qualification due to its lateness in relation to the preparation of the Annual Financial Statements. Last year Resources of 961k and Ore Reserves of 376k for the operating mine - hopefully with all the drilling in the last 12 months from Level 8 that these figures will be substantially increased but impossible to guess by how much..
5) 25August. Impairment testing for FY17. Due to the low market capitalisation of $US45mil at 30June, I would expect that they will add another ~$100mil to impairments which when added to the $55mil provided at 31Dec16 will bring the total for the year to around $150mil. ASIC is tough on listed companies that state intangible assets in Non-Current Assets with a value greater than the Company's market capitalisation so the Evaluation, exploration & development A/c will have to be cut back. I would expect a statement similar to this previous release:
www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/150903_assetimpairment.pdf
6) 31August. Annual Financial Statements for FY17. Interesting figures will be Cash at Bank, Gold ore for settlement, Accounts Payable and Loans Payable.'

[bluelynx] 02/7/2017 18:52

Atlantic, I'm now sure that is correct, and agree that given the uncertain times nothing is guaranteed.

All the best BL

[bluelynx] 02/7/2017 18:48

Just checked the Money Savings Expert website, and in an article dated April 2017 they state that the allowances for dividend payments (£5,0000 falling to £2,000) relates to Shares held outside ISA's.


-----"No tax on dividend income. Inside an ISA, you don't pay tax on dividends. Outside an ISA, you'd get a £5,000 dividend income allowance, and above that higher- and additional-rate taxpayers would pay 25% and 30.56% respectively".-----

Sorry to have caused disruption to the board over a panic error.

[atlantic57] 02/7/2017 18:24

Blue i think you can sleep easily for now.However we are living in very volatile political times so anything is possible in the future.

[bluelynx] 02/7/2017 18:19

Hi all, I hope I have made a silly error here, but what made me think that the Tax concerning ISA's had changed, was an email from my Broker that said it was my responsibility to pay the correct TAX. I thought they were writing about ISA's as the email seemed to be mostly referring to ISA's.

[atlantic57] 02/7/2017 12:58

Dividend income within an isa is tax free i believe.

[cp42kx07] 02/7/2017 12:02

BL / chip

My understanding is that ISA gains & income remain tax-free.

[chipperfrd] 02/7/2017 11:59

BL,

I have had a quick look on the web and the dividend allowance cut (from £5k to £2k) appears to NOT apply to investments within ISA's.

Tax

Investments that pay interest (e.g. government and corporate bonds), or rental income (such as some property funds) provide 100% tax-free income if held within an ISA and therefore offer tax benefits for everyone.

As of April 2016, all individuals are eligible for a £5,000 tax-free Dividend Allowance (this tax free allowance will fall to £2,000 in April 2018).

Dividends received by pension funds or received on shares within an ISA will remain tax free and won’t impact your dividend allowance.

Also, any profit you make when selling investments in your Stocks and shares ISA is free of Capital Gains Tax.

Any losses made on your investments in your Stocks and shares ISAs can’t be used to offset capital gains on your other investments.

I will check with HMRC to make absolutely certain.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 02/7/2017 11:46

Thanks for the heads-up BL, I was not aware of that change.

I will need to have a good look into it as it would have a growing impact on me.

It is really annoying if ISA's are going to be modified in this way.
Chip

[bluelynx] 01/7/2017 20:15

Off-topic, I am not sure if posters on this thread are aware of the fact that ISA's are now not totally TAX free when it comes to Dividends. Currently you are allowed £5,0000 in dividends before you pay Tax but in 2018 this will drop to £2,0000.

As I am mainly invested in growth mining companies it doesn't concern me yet but in the future i had hoped to invest in dividend paying companies, this kind of defeats the original point of ISA's.

[tightfist] 29/6/2017 09:33

Thanks Ein, between them Arbiter and Ruffer have acquired another 4.4m (2%) of the equity, the last Buy was at 28.5c.

Slow and steady buying action, but still the price is weak. What do they know? Is anyone here a buyer at this level?

Cheers, tightfist

[eintracht] 29/6/2017 00:53

ASX announcement. Increase in substantial holdings.

[deka1] 27/6/2017 16:14

Thanks Kimboy, TF, three days to the end of year for the Co,

[tightfist] 27/6/2017 12:41

Thanks Kimboy for breaking the silence.

The phrase "....After being operational for several months we can now announce that all the components are working correctly and no issues have been reported regarding the performance of the Headgear, Shaft Collar and Winder house we designed,” says de Jongh" is helpful. I think this is the equipment that we saw being inspected in SA by Rob Gregory in late 2015.

Meanwhile the share price drifts slightly downwards and aimlessly until there is some meaningful news. Personally I am not expecting a lot in the FY production figures at the end of July (can it get any gloomier?), more interested in what happens in the Autumn as the E15 shaft comes on-line and the L8 shaft is freed-up for increased hoisting.

Also the annual resources statement should be more meaningful this year and provide more insight to the future? A lot of our cash has been invested in all that underground drilling!


Cheers, tightfist

[stoph] 22/6/2017 07:38

Anyoneelse having problems logging on to the Medusa website

[arja] 22/6/2017 07:13

a while since I checked the MML share price but hard to see this stock ever recovering although stranger things have happened .

[edjge2] 14/6/2017 22:36

surprised TDW were not making enough money

[deka1] 06/6/2017 19:04

TDW SOLD TO INTERACTIVE INVESTOR