Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[atlantic57] 04/9/2017 11:08

The Production guidance here seems very modest for next year.

[ilostthelot] 04/9/2017 07:27

I'm a bit surprised there has been no rise here with the gold price where it is.

[roguetreader] 31/8/2017 16:52

Thanks tightfist I'll take another look

[tightfist] 31/8/2017 16:40

Hi RT,

My eyes were also immediately drawn to the Impairment. The basis and assumptions are stated in Note 13 on pages 23-24 in the financials. I noted that the Probable Reserves are reduced by 19%, however this is not analysed as a sensitivity, neither is the Production Capacity - although the max range value is only reduced by 2%.

I am going to do my own simple DCF to try and understand more.

I vividly remember Geoff Davis cautioning at am AGM about the Cost vs. Benefit of drilling for resources in a narrow vein mine.....


Cheers, tightfist

[roguetreader] 31/8/2017 13:52

Unless I'm missing something these figures look to be much as expected following the June Quarterly report on the 31/07. The one area that may be of note is the size of the impairment i.e. $70.8M. This looks to be lower than some thought it might be, where there are no details on how it was calculated. Therefore, as a non-expert my question would be 'is this it?' or have they low balled the impairment with another possible / probable in 2017/18?
RT

[speedsgh] 31/8/2017 09:34

2016/2017 Financial Results overview -

Preliminary Financial Statements as at 30 June 2017 -

[eintracht] 31/8/2017 08:57

Full year results out on ASX.

[atlantic57] 30/8/2017 04:55

Tightfisted you make a very significant point !
The Landscape has changed from 10 years ago in the way you describe.
Golds current strength appears to be based on n Korea

[tightfist] 29/8/2017 13:45

Hi Paul, good to hear from you. Yes,I am afraid it has to be conditional where MML is involved! Surely the MML corner will be turned soon(!), though I wonder if the resignation of NED Angeles has any deeper meaning?

Regarding PM stocks movements (vs POG) I am thinking there is a pecking order whereby the most liquid mid/large-cap often ETF-held stocks react first and a sustained POG move is needed to drive significant, sustainable re-rating moves further down the chain. A quick look suggests most Goldies over £100m MC (apart from ACA!) have had a respectable year so far in 2017, those under £100m less-so.

Otherwise my thoughts are pure hypothesis and I invite anyone to shoot it down with some deeper statistics.

Cheers, tightfist

[polaris] 29/8/2017 13:21

ah, the conditional tense... ;-)

Long time no post for me.

regards,

Paul

[tightfist] 29/8/2017 12:28

With this year's AISC guidance at $1,050 to $1,200, MML share price should currently be highly geared to POG. It should also become highly geared to falling AISC during Summer 2018.....

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 29/8/2017 09:30

Decent move over $1300 in gold should see money moving into miners.

[speedsgh] 22/8/2017 08:06

Resignation of Non-Executive Director -

Medusa Mining Limited (Medusa or the Company) (ASX: MML) advises that Mr Ciceron "Jun" A. Angeles has given notice of his resignation as a Non-Executive Director of the Company, effective 31 October 2017.

Mr Angeles was appointed to the Board of Medusa in June 2011 as a Non-Executive Director, was Chairman of the Company's Nomination Committee and also a member of both the Audit and Remuneration Committees.

On behalf of the Board, Medusa management and its shareholders, Mr Andrew Teo, Medusa’s Chairman thanked Mr Angeles for his contribution as a trusted and dedicated Non-Executive Director of the Company for the past 6 years and wished him all the best in his future endeavours.

[tightfist] 18/8/2017 17:30

Hi RT,

All I know is that back in May, Pro-Active in London were in contact with MML regarding a potential Autumn presentation - they obviously look to plan well ahead although it is announced to the PI's at far shorter notice.

Last September the MML team had done the rounds in the City (five meetings IIRC) earlier in the week and it seems that us PI's are routinely tacked on the end. With Ruffer now holding ~13% they should increasingly want to keep sweet with Ruffer (and Arbiter at ~11%) - who's to say who else may be lined up. Maybe they can get another potential II on-board at these levels; it could make a compelling story. After all they may not have significant shareholdings but I am sure they soon want their options in the money!

Cheers, tightfist

[atlantic57] 18/8/2017 12:26

If Medusa get their act together and gold finally does make the journey north then shareholders will live happily ever after...

However you now have political risk and a Company with a long history of broken promises.

So you pays your money...

[stevea171] 18/8/2017 11:42

If FY results are not good as expected, why would MML come to London when nothing has changed or improved in the 12 months since they were here last?

If and when all this current mine development capex spend completes some time next year? Does that mean an uptick in cash generation? But wait a minute. Weren't they supposed to have started on L16 shaft before now and how long is that gonna take to build and at what cost given this endless saga with the services shaft?

[roguetreader] 17/8/2017 14:00

Hi Tightfist
has the Proactive presentation been announced? I've been doing some on-line searches to try and see if and when Medusa are doing any presentations to the market but didn't come across any.
RT

[tightfist] 17/8/2017 12:24

I am expecting that there will be a Pro-Active presentation in September/October and it will be very interesting to see how Boyd comes over, now we are undeniably on "his shift". As long as we remain cash-neutral I can live with Service Shaft delays - I am more concerned about the increase in creditors.

To anticipate substantial reductions in AISC we need to understand mid-term underground drilling intentions. Meanwhile, hopefully the chart is hammering-out a bottom formation…..

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 17/8/2017 11:04

😊 Time will tell.. I remain out.

If i see one good quarter with AISC around $1000 and over 25,000 ozs produced that might be enough to tempt me back in in.

Everything hinges on this lift shaft thats already running 9 months over. Its fair to say they could delay it another 6 months come nearer the time.

[kimboy2] 16/8/2017 11:09

Hope baits many a hook.

[ilostthelot] 16/8/2017 11:04

I wonder if medusa still hopes for an AISC of $800 🤔

[deka1] 12/8/2017 07:30

This time next year Rodders.

[roguetreader] 11/8/2017 12:52

Steve,

Re Arbiter / Ruffer, I know and accept that, but I do think their consistent investing over the last two years are interesting positive indicators. Everyone is fallible and Arbiter and Ruffer have highly diversified portfolios to mitigate risks on single stocks, where MML is probably currently in their eyes a high risk play. Hedge Funds and Fund Managers generally, are measured on their performance and anything that has to written off will impact their margins and hence performance. So I don't think either Arbiter or Ruffer would be making this consistent injection of investment if they didn't believe the risk / reward was in their favour.

Re Duterte, he is part of the risk play. Personally I think he is relatively low risk re MML as narrow vein producer, but that is not to say the worst couldn't happen. All jurisdictions have risk and that again needs to be built into each individuals estimate of the risk / reward for a given share.

Currently, I'm still invested in MML, but have reduced my exposure over the last year. However, I do believe they still have potential and will continue to watch progress with the completion of the service shaft and their quarterly production numbers through 2017, to determine whether to ramp up my investment or sell out, depending on results. I don't see any significant change to the share price in the short term.
RT

PS: MML are not doing any worse than my most recent foray into a supposed safe jurisdiction with BLK. But again I still believe they are a long term good risk / reward play. Everyone is responsible for their own investment choices.

[stevea171] 11/8/2017 10:18

What they have invested may be only a few % of their funds so they can afford for the investments to be wiped out in a worst case scenario. Also significantly it's not their money!

PI's who are invested are likely to have a much higher % at risk eg 5-10 companies in their portfolio and would be facing a significant loss if Duterte takes an axe to the sector or there is some other event leading to closure of the mine and company.

As it stands Bananghilig is unlikely to ever be approved for development as a result of GL's campaigning.

[roguetreader] 10/8/2017 11:42

Interesting post from Miningnut on Hotcopper:

'Arbiter Partners have managed to accumulate another 2.12mil shares as of today to bring their total to 25.63mil shares or 12.33%. This will be reported next Monday.
Arbiter have been good at supporting the share price at this level as there are few buyers around besides them and there always seems to be a constant stream of sellers but hopefully this story will change soon. With Ruffer Gold Fund owning 12.91%, the two of them control 25.24%.'

I suspect that both Arbiter and Ruffer have reasonably deep pockets and that 25.63M shares between the two at current prices is not a huge amount of cash to either of them. However, the fact that they have both been consistent buyers throughout the period of Service Shaft development from April 2015 to today with a drop in share price over the period from 92 to 29 cents is a positive. Even if they have got bargain prices on the way down at the current price they can't be in profit, but obviously still see a significant profit in the future. I also understand that both companies whilst prepared to take risk do so on a probability based outlook and are not out and out gamblers. Given that unwinding such large holdings on the market would be nigh on impossible at current prices and outlook, they must still have a high level of confidence in the share price improving with the eventual turnaround in the company we have all been looking for, for the last 2 / 3 years.

I remain invested but am not yet confident enough to buy further - yet.