Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[geeseflynorth1] 10/8/2017 11:17

Thank you CP42Kx07 for posting this article. Maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. However i struggle with how mismanagement has ruled for several years, or was it mismanagement ? I am not convinced it wasn't a deliberate agenda but why ? Time will tell.
sfs

[cp42kx07] 09/8/2017 09:45

Latest Seeking Alpha article:

[deka1] 07/8/2017 19:51

Cheers guys,

MANAGING DIRECTOR’S STATEMENT With the release of our 30 April 2017 resource and reserve statement, Medusa is now better aligned with our financial year-end reporting requirements. From the 10 months of diamond drilling and mine development Medusa has realized a resource grade improvement of almost 14% and an indicated resource to reserve conversion of 76%, very high for this gold deposit type and industry standards. The drilling program focused on better understanding the geological limits of the main epithermal veins, particularly the eastern and down plunge limits of the Great Hamish Vein (“GHV”) at the expense of completing all the infill drilling of the central down dip sections below Level 11. The GHV eastern limit between Level 10 to 16 is now well understood and shows the vein is again returning high grade economic intercepts at and below Level 16, again leaving it open to the east and down dip. The drilling has also confirmed our interpretation of the structural controls and impact of the Diatreme contact. This is confirmed with the results seen on the Jereme (“JV”) and Don Pedro (“DPV”) veins to the east from Level 8 to Level 11 having yielded new high-quality intercepts and resources. Both veins are open to the east and down dip for future resource expansion potential The 10 month drill program has maintained nearly a 350,000 ounce reserve base. In Co-O’s 10 years of production history, the original pre-production reserves have been replaced fourfold, showing the robustness of this deposit. Today we have a better understanding of the Co-O ore body, a higher level of confidence in the resources and reserves and the deposit remains open to the east and down plunge on the main structures.

[chipperfrd] 07/8/2017 07:55

Cheers Eintracht.

[eintracht] 07/8/2017 07:32

Resource update out on ASX.

[deka1] 31/7/2017 13:13

Hi Andy, I think they will be producing 160k ozs per annum, within the next year,if they complete the shaft by next March ,and as prod rises so the aisc falls.
and pray for a good POG by then, 1300 + would be nice, with an aisc of around 900.

[ilostthelot] 31/7/2017 12:47

Hi Deka i agree with your take. At best medusa is a 160,000 producer.Will they ever get to that? Most likely. The picture remains unclear and cash is tight still very much high risk but high rewards buying shares now if they do become a 160 k producer next year.

[atlantic57] 31/7/2017 11:53

Deka/ RT
Thanks for taking the time to post , i appreciate it.

The 400 000 ounces was probably speculation back in 2010 when they had the possibility of two mines.

It looks to me like a straightforward proposition of hitting the now lower production target without running out of cash. The Philipines is no longer a stable country to operate in.

However it is not in the Tanzania league yet.

I have no idea on the gold price and despite various gurus making endless predictions, they have been consistently wrong.It is clear that no one has any idea.

britcoin is now flavour of the mont

[roguetreader] 31/7/2017 11:33

Atlantic
400K? I don't recollect that as a published target? The 200K that was originally targeted for delivery in 2015 is obviously questionable and I suspect no longer anywhere or managements radar. However, If they are able to get to a position of achieving anything near the 120-130K Oz targeted in the 2015 presentation at $900 AISC by 2018-19 then at current share price the forward PE would be somewhere between 1 and 2. That's why I'm still here.

[deka1] 31/7/2017 11:17

atlan hi, MML is imo a 160k/oz/ year opertation, that's with full tonnage through the mill (2.5ktd),at 7gt grade,94% recovery,---that's a year or so down the line,at best .
Gold price?who knows!

Anyone else agree with my take or not ??

[atlantic57] 31/7/2017 10:39

Rt what happened to the 400 000 ounces
Target.
Is there still a target or is this a 100 000 ounce a year producer.

There have been endless predictions for a collapse in the financial system and a sky
Rocketing gold price.

Currently it feels like we are in the one day Rodders zone

[roguetreader] 31/7/2017 09:45

My impression from the report is 'slow' but steady progress. However there is a lot not said or not covered in the report. Surely at the most recent production rates the 80-90K Oz should be easily attainable for 2018. This begs the question are management being extremely cautious having being burned so often in the last few years or are there other unstated concerns that may affect target achievement. Without borrowings increasing by $10m the cash pile would be down to $1M so financially the company could go easily dip into the red before E15 completes next year. On balance I'm more positive than I was in March but don't see Medusa being out of the woods yet. It looks to me that we will possibly need to wait until December 2017 Qtr to get a clear picture that the worm has turned and Medusa is consistently moving positive, assuming current progress continues.

[deka1] 31/7/2017 08:19

So next March for shaft completion, nine months .

[atlantic57] 31/7/2017 07:47

I note that the results are out and do not feel able to comment on these.
However I do remember that some years ago when I was a shareholder i understood that by now we would be producing 400 000 ounces a year.

Does anyone know where we are in relation to that target.

[stoph] 31/7/2017 05:04

June 17 report now out on website

Prod for quarter is 23846 oz.
Guidance for 17/18 is 80,000 -90,000 ozs at a AISC of $1050 - $1200 per oz.

Plenty more info about what is going on in report

[deka1] 30/7/2017 06:49

Aye guys Monday for end of year.

[tightfist] 29/7/2017 21:50

As ever, I expect to see the Q4 production/progress report on Monday the 31st - the last day of the month following the quarter.

It will be interesting to see if they finally sunk Service Shaft E15 past level 8; I am not holding my breath. As long as MML keep generating cash I am OK - for me it's a question of When not If they manage to ramp up production.

[roguetreader] 29/7/2017 10:04

Quarterly report due / overdue?

[deka1] 07/7/2017 09:44

Thanks for your take TF

[tightfist] 06/7/2017 21:17

deka,

Your example numbers (or thereabouts) are why I am still hanging-in here. Back last year Boyd talked of a somewhat lower potential AISC. The main aspect that will continue to concern me for several years to come is that ~70+% of production will be reliant upon L8 shaft performance and reliability. The contributions of the higher level shafts and E15 Service Shaft will be quite modest.

In a few years time there will be a big drain on free cash flow to fund a new deeper production shaft. We need to keep an eye on the resources statement to judge when that will come around; I am thinking that it could absorb ~30% of cash flow over three years?

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 06/7/2017 15:22

Well if they get to produce 130kozs with gold at $ 1250. and an aisc of say $900,
that would be income of around $45mil less around 7% at refining,before offtakes for taxes etc. I think that's right lol.

[ilostthelot] 06/7/2017 14:49

In for a penny in for a pound. Good to see Arbiter are confident!

Galeforce - I've been thinking the same. Medusa have spent a lot of money developing the mine. At some point they will hit a sweet spot again -like back in the day when the market cap was significantly higher.

Yes £37 million profit per year,if not more, could actually be achieved quite soon when the upgraded mine shaft is finally completed. When that happens what will the market cap be? Maybe 5 times cash flow to begin with?

[ilostthelot] 06/7/2017 14:49

In for a penny in for a pound. Good to see Arbiter are confident!

Galeforce - I've been thinking the same. Medusa have spent a lot of money developing the mine. At some point they will hit a sweet spot again -like back in the day when the market cap was significantly higher.

Yes £37 million profit per year,if not more, could actually be achieved quite soon when the upgraded mine shaft is finally completed. When that happens what will the market cap be? Maybe 5 times cash flow to begin with?