Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[bluelynx] 14/5/2017 14:41

Hi deka, lets hope it turns out well for MML, if the gold price rises I'm sure all will be well. I am not presently a holder due to my lack of confidence in management and the ecomomic viability of the mine due to its geology.

Good luck to all current holders.

[deka1] 14/5/2017 11:27

At $1500 gold and $878 AISC, major gold miners' profits would rocket 81.8% higher to $622 per ounce. If you believe gold is heading higher in the coming quarters as these overvalued stock markets inevitably roll over, the gold stocks are screaming buys today fundamentally. Their already-strong profitability will soar, really leveraging gold's mean-reversion advance. Gold stocks' great near-term upside potential is unequalled.

Hi Blue , been a long time, good see you back , the scenario above , from your link Is what I pray to see for MML lol

[bluelynx] 13/5/2017 22:08

Interesting research from Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence even if he is biased towards gaining subscribers.

[deka1] 08/5/2017 11:59

Change your shampoo Charles

[charles clore] 08/5/2017 11:43

I dont like the look of the head and shoulders and would be a buyer but for that. However I agree the current price level is disgraceful.

[deka1] 08/5/2017 11:40

Hi TF , we could get a respite if gold recovers soon , back up to the high 1200s
and the low 30s have been holding lately, in the words of MLK I have a dream that good news is a comin

[deka1] 08/5/2017 11:34

Cheers Andy, you'll be back in LOL

[tightfist] 08/5/2017 11:31

deka,

I am far from sure that 11% down is the extent of what is in store. If the share price breaks 32c this could get truly (ie yet more!) ugly. Slightly tongue-in-cheek the AISC is highly likely to fall a lot more quickly than PoG..... Once the Capex starts falling (that part of the plan could be made far far more transparent) to create a positive margin, IMHO this becomes a waiting game.

In the Autumn it will be interesting to see what Resources have been generated from modelling based upon all the underground drilling expenditure. That drilling could become a bottomless pit of considerable expense? I hope it is used to develop and communicate the long-term timing plan/position for the L16 shaft, and then reduced considerably.

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 08/5/2017 08:40

I hope it turns for you deka.

[deka1] 08/5/2017 07:53

11% down ,not to bad considering golds recent $55 fall from recent high.
see the clutch lol

[deka1] 07/5/2017 11:39

Hi Atlantc,well for me the straw is the aisc the comp predicted around $850 (don't laugh)with everything at best grades/ most tonnage/decent gold price etc etc,
that's what i'm clutching at lol

[atlantic57] 07/5/2017 08:19

Hi Dekal the biggest straw for you is the gold price. I lost all confidence in Jim Sinclair as someone with knowledge on the gold space.Armstrong and Larry Edelson both
Predict 5000 Dollars an ounce but they seem to be talking 2020.

Even Stevea feels this is not Vgm or Norseman.
So if they can hang on perhaps by the end of this year gold can establish a base at around 14 - 1500 dollars an ounce MMl could yet make a come back.

The aisc is the key metric for me. Good luck

[noirua] 06/5/2017 23:46

Revised Production Guidance:

[deka1] 06/5/2017 20:00

Good post TF,i can see a lot of thought gone into it , and a lot of useful possibilities come out , very logical.
Thanks.
IMO, the large holders / buyers/ insties would have had an inkling, perhaps even knowledge that this prod revision was coming, if they have been increasing size of positions over the recent past we may see an RNS stating this soon.

PLease excuse the straw clutching

[tightfist] 06/5/2017 16:44

Hi cnc,

I see it as positive that MML have rapidly communicated the shortfall with the market, that’s progress (of a sort); maybe last year’s wrist-slapping from ASX did have some impact. We all knew that the guidance was a best-case, zero contingency, figure and the best-case just became unravelled. Once again they are implementing the right initiatives (new L8 pumping facility) but too late (just like the shaft guide preventative maintenance strategy was too late).

It looks as though Q4 is now going to be something like a re-run of Q1 in terms of grade and hoisting to hit reduced minimum guidance. That being the case if the quarter-averaged realised PoG becomes $1,220 they would need to trim $3m below the Q3 capex etc to break even on cash.

I agree with your comment about stockpiling cash, I was thinking they may run the mill more cost-effectively on part load but there is no suggestion that is feasible (though recoveries may be slightly improved at present? There was emphasis a while ago on reducing the crushed ore screen size ).

Regarding filling the mill to capacity (2,500tpd) slide 12 of the October 2016 presentation suggests (after E15 commissioned) 1,700tpd up L8, 300tpd up E15 and 500tpd up the higher level inclined shafts which would just fill the mill if it is sustainable hoisting capacity. Presumably the three production L10>L8 Winzes are sized to lift to the L8 shaft, etc etc.

Absenteeism: They are certainly having a tough time with rains in the Phillipines; this prediction was posted on 15th April:
hxxp://floodlist.com/asia/philippines-central-south-brace-tropical-depression-02w-crising

And this is 250 miles North of Co-O on 17th April:
hxxp://floodlist.com/asia/philippines-floods-cebu-crising-april-2017
My guess is that it is the rains and transport/family impacts have given rise to the absenteeism, though political strife may be part of the story too?

Friday’s price action may be a continued “Lopez Bounce” with weakness now to follow? Prior to this news I was a likely a buyer at 33c but not now!


Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 06/5/2017 16:08

CNC hi, it's amazed me too, someone must be buying eh ?

[cncventure] 06/5/2017 03:48

I'd prefer they have a "stockpile" of cash on the balance sheet than a stockpile of ore (nor would I suspect an ore stockpile be a priority with MML's under-utilized mill and it's yet to be seen if the increased hoisting capacity after the service shaft completion will even get the mill to capacity).

Also, I'm still a holder of MML, and over the last 6 months I have tended to be a buyer on bad news (taking the long view).

However the last couple of weeks have disappointed me to the point where I'd want the share price to be 30c (or lower) to be tempted again (too much risk and the new management have now shown they are no more competent than the previous lot).

Will be interesting to see where MML opens on Monday - I can't believe it closed at 40c on Friday with what has been happening to the gold price.

[tightfist] 05/5/2017 23:37

Hi Steve,

Let's keep high-grading in perspective. As a mid/long term ongoing operational policy it's clearly not acceptable as it flatters results. However it was clear in the Q3 update that they had been preparing high grade stopes on L8/L9 for immediate hoisting. If they had not done that and subsequently run into short-term cash flow problems they would rightly have been accused of gross incompetence.

Currently they are obviously working their way through a cash pinch-point which IMHO and judgement they will do successfully, but I am going to check my model! All being well that pinch-point will soon be passed and a later transient reduction in grade will readily be accommodated. They are now more a lot more vulnerable to yet another operational glitch; I hope they can soon accumulate a surface ore stockpile to provide some resilience.

I am not sure there are any other holders here right now who have skin-in-the-game. Yes, there I have significant concerns - the current share price reflects vulnerability and we each make our decision on Acceptable Risk vs Potential Reward.

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 05/5/2017 14:46

Looks like the overdraught will be getting hit again.

[stevea171] 05/5/2017 14:01

Atlantic. They don't deserve to but probably will survive for now, though it may be a struggle. This high grading and latest drill results suggest that the economics of mining are going to be higher than anyone expected. It's a lot younger mine than VGM's Vatukoula but with current gold prices may become marginal in the st. Cheap labor did not save VGM although they had a huge resource.

I don't like The Philippines as a domain since this new Government came to power nearly a year ago. Ms Lopez may be out but Duterte has the same view as her wrt the mining industry in that country with a lot of support from the people. Similar nationalistic policies are coming to the fore elsewhere eg Indonesia, Thailand, Tanzania, etc. Now that the dragon has awoken in the Philippines it will not easily be put back in its cage ....

[atlantic57] 05/5/2017 13:34

Stevea do you think medusa will survive

[stevea171] 05/5/2017 13:03

No surprise with this announcement. But why was Medusa's Q4 plan to be high grading on Levels 8 & 9 in the first place?

"Medusa has decided to reduce the production guidance for FY17, primarily as a result of an unexpected reduced rate of mining of the very high grade ("VHG") gold stopes on levels 8 and 9 of the Co-O Mine."

One of the directors told me last September they had done this previously on the higher levels and it should not have happened. Here we are now with a different MD who is doing the exact same thing and this Board is taking no action to stop him. This BOD is totally, totally useless and the lot should go .....

No mention of the failed revised promise for AISC. Just how much cash will they burn in Q4 and will the Auditors be prepared to sign off the FY Accounts? Probably not which is why they are preparing for the possibility of some sort of cash raise before end July when Q4 results must be published and after which Banks/Institutions could give a pass.

[atlantic57] 05/5/2017 10:52

Medusa management have no credibility
Whatsoever.They should have disclosed
All of this when they released their report.

In life all relationships are based on trust.

[justinjjbuk] 05/5/2017 10:23

cnc

And they put the announcement out after market on a Friday. I have seen this so often before with bad news. It really is symptomatic of bad management. Who are they trying to fool? The mantra for investor relations should be: you can sit on good news, but get bad news out instantly. Not the reverse! And as for thinking people won't notice over the weekend.

Sigh

[justinjjbuk] 05/5/2017 10:17

Well some of these factors may be temporary but this factor is extraordinary:

"In addition, there has been a higher than expected level of worker absenteeism at the Co-O mine during late April and early May 2017."

Doesn't suggest a happy mine. Given the paucity of job opportunities in Mindanao and the fact that MML's rates of pay will be a multiple of local ones (stated in response to a question at one of the London presentations a couple of years back), I would think that the availability of workers would be the least of their worries. I worry that this is symptomatic of something more worrying.

As regards a capital raise, there must be a question mark over whether they could even get one away at this stage. Against a backdrop of money pouring out of the junior mining sector over the last couple of months, if I were an institutional investor, I would be very sceptical over whether I would get my money back given the current issues plaguing MML.