Mecom Share Discussion Threads

[stluke] 18/10/2012 07:56

Against the backdrop of tough advertising markets that was a strong inline update, cost controls are impressive and net debt is being driven down and expected to be below market expectations.

[matt123d] 04/9/2012 21:00

Looking good for a quick run to 98p from here.

[professor x] 17/8/2012 11:00

Same here Steve. If you look back over the last few years on the chart it has made a habit of forming these cup shaped drops!

[trader steve] 17/8/2012 10:54

Yes uptrend under way here. Will hold until the trend reverses. Please note I trade solely based on price action, not fundamentals. GLTA.

Steve

[professor x] 17/8/2012 10:39

By nice breakout out on decent volume!

[bill182] 10/8/2012 09:31

There seems to be a bit of activity here this morning! The MM's appear to be looking for stock, and the offer is moving up.

[active trader] 20/7/2012 11:25

thanks for replying paul, really enjoy your blogg becoming a must read for me i,am not in your league so i,am learning a lot.I have a small holding in uk coal bit of a gamble. keep up the good work. AT

[paulypilot] 20/7/2012 11:06

Hi active trader.

I play around with various filters all the time, looking for low PER, high yield, cheap PTBV, high Z-scores, all sorts really. Sometimes overlaid with poor relative strength, to identify things that are oversold. I seem to recall that MEC came up on a simple very low PER, high forecast divi yield filter, and then when I looked at the fundamentals it was clear that the Edda Media disposal fixed the debt problem, and that it's now just a cash cow that can pay potentially enormous divis. Right up my street! Got lucky with the timing, admittedly!

I glanced at UK Coal recently, but didn't like it.

Cheers, Paul.

[active trader] 20/7/2012 10:56

paul, two questions one you mention on your blogg your filter which you discovered mec just wondered what is your criteria, i use low pe, low peg, strong cash flow, declining gearing,ect. and second what are your thoughts on uk coal epic ukc ? thanks ian aka active trader

[paulypilot] 20/7/2012 10:44

Hi,

Good analysis as always, thanks SteMis.
As with TNI, if you're writing off the intangibles, then you should also probably write off the associated deferred tax. So negative net tangibles may not be that bad.

Very striking what a high price they achieved for Norweigan assets, and also there is lots of scope for cost cutting to mitigate falling ad revenues. Bear in mind that 2011 revenues only fell 2% despite 7% fall in ad revenues, reinforcing the fact that they rely on more resilient circulation revenue, than ad revenue. "Other" is also quite significant, but don't know what that is.

Net debt should be much lower, with E190m Edda Media proceeds in the bag, cost savings & ongoing EBITDA, less cash restructuring costs & less the De Pers termination payment (which will however boost profits). Plus of course interest costs will now be much lower in the future.

"in play" now CEO departed & acceptance that group structure is unnecessary & a break-up now logical way forwards. 150p sounds a sensible target to me.

Results next week should be interesting, as they will include the Edda Media disposal, so easier to follow hopefully.

Obvious read-across here to TNI, but market doesn't seem to have picked up on that yet.

Cheers, PP.

[hoper2] 20/7/2012 10:35

It wouldn't surprise me if the debt was a little higher, but I wouldn't disagree with a share price of about £1.50. However, as much as MEC disappoint on most things they always seem to get a top price when they sell a business, so we may get a pleasant surprise.

I was very lucky and bought in on Tuesday at 51.75p so at the moment it's looking good. I'd be delighted if we finish in the 70's today.

[stemis] 20/7/2012 10:21

Had a look at numbers.

After sale of Norweigan business debt will still be Eur 105m, so not debt free.

Balance sheet is very weak - net tangible liabilities of Eur 360m

Trading is deteriorating. EBITDA in continuing businesses now forecast to be down from Eur 113.6m to Eur 95m - 85m. That Eur 30m - 20m reduction will drop straight to bottom line.

If they could get a bid at 4 x EBITDA however that's probably a share price of 150p.

[cool runnings] 18/7/2012 16:44

150p minimum !!

[karmicpete] 18/7/2012 16:08

If they're broken up, what sort of figure could be returned to shareholders?

Is there a chance another media company would bid for them, especially as they're now pretty much debt free and generating so much cash?

KP

[cool runnings] 18/7/2012 15:20

Sky business news

Exclusive: Mecom CEO Tom Toumazis on verge of quitting after less than a year in the job. Exit could lead to break-up of the company.

[hoper2] 18/7/2012 12:31

Like you I've been out of MEC for about 18-months, bought back yesterday at 51.75p. The downside looks very limited, but I guess some were saying that at £1.50. The intrims are out next week, if things are no worse then I think there's a few quid to be made.

[edward3] 18/7/2012 07:28

Have been in and out of Mecom a number of times got out 18 months back ...thinking of re-entering...

[paulypilot] 18/7/2012 00:41

Hi,

These shares cropped up on one of my value filters over the weekend, and for anyone interested I've just published a write-up on my Blog;


Would be interested in your comments - is there anything important I've missed, or is it really as cheap as it looks?!

Cheers, Paul.

[bubbleandleek] 09/7/2012 09:04

very much doubt it....selling seems relentless still.

[bill182] 05/7/2012 14:45

I wonder if we have finally hit the bottom today, as the sell side seems to have hardened slightly, with more pressure on the buy side.

[bill182] 28/6/2012 09:06

From the original sale notification in December:

Tom Toumazis, Chief Executive of Mecom, said:



"The sale of Edda Media is at an attractive valuation. It will allow Edda Media to benefit from consolidation in the Norwegian media market and crystallise substantial value for Mecom shareholders. In addition and importantly, I am delighted to say that we have agreed with A-pressen that we will continue to operate Sweetdeal together in Norway. We have also agreed that we plan to explore opportunities for co-investing in and exploiting digital product development. This alliance will benefit both companies and maintain links with the great team at Edda Media.



"The sale will of course materially improve our balance sheet. It will allow us to consider, in due course and subject to a refinancing, an enhancement to the Company's cash returns to shareholders, to focus on our future strategy and to invest to improve profitability in the remainder of the Group."

[bill182] 28/6/2012 08:47

Confirmation of sale:



MECOM GROUP PLC



Completion of sale of Edda Media AS



Further to this morning's announcement, the completion of the disposal of Edda Media AS to A-pressen AS has now taken place.

[bill182] 28/6/2012 07:55

At last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mecom Group plc ("Mecom") welcomes today's announcement by the Norwegian Competition Authority clearing the sale (the "Sale") of Mecom Europe AS ("Mecom Europe"), the holding company of Edda Media AS ("Edda Media"), to A-pressen AS ("A-pressen"). It is anticipated that completion will take place shortly.



On 5th December 2011 Mecom announced that it had agreed the Sale at a multiple of 7.2 times Edda Media's 2011 full year consensus EBITDA. The effective proceeds for the disposal of NOK1,500 million were expected at that time to result in a net debt reduction of approximately €190 million. Given the strengthening of the Norwegian Kroner against the Euro since December 2011, the net debt reduction on closing will be approximately €195 million.



In addition, Mecom's sale and purchase agreement with A-pressen includes a conventional price adjustment mechanism such that, subject to the preparation and agreement of completion accounts, Mecom will receive an additional cash payment from A-Pressen for the free cash flow generated by Edda Media between 31st December 2011 and completion. Mecom anticipates that these incremental proceeds will be received within 3 months of completion.



A further announcement will be made when completion has taken place.



Tom Toumazis, Chief Executive Officer of Mecom, commented:



"We are delighted by the Norwegian Competition Authority's announcement today which will allow us to complete the sale of Edda Media, resulting in a further significant improvement in the Group's financial position. We are grateful to A-pressen for their co-operation throughout the past months and wish all our people at Edda Media well for the future."