Mears Share Discussion Threads

[tpaulbeaumont] 11/9/2008 19:22

last one out turn off the lights :) $5.5 flag = $18 target perhaps

[whizzy1] 11/9/2008 01:31

Hmmm, I think the local councils cash will dry up even further in 09, impacting on social housing stock, repairs rather than upgrades, think i'll sit on the fence for a few months before coming back to this one.
(sold @315 15/5/08)

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/9/2008 05:07

looking very flaggy, poised to breakdown perhaps

[hosede] 04/9/2008 09:56

Simon
Sorry perhaps I should have said CHFs or chuffs as expats call them over there.
Further to post 879 RCG just announced H1 profits of 9.15p (up 70%). The price has shot up from 56 to 83p, but is still on a likely PE of 4 for this year

[simon gordon] 29/8/2008 16:01

hosede - I thought you meant the stock SFR. I now realise you mean the Swiss Franc.

[hosede] 29/8/2008 15:13

Yes Simon I read the Moneyweek crew who until recently were looking for an inflationary crash and recommending gold and silver but are now moving more towards the Stagflation option. Also Bob Prechter and the EW crowd who are totally committed to deflation - I think that's simplistic as no two crashes are exactly the same - but it's hard to argue with someone who's read it right for 25 years - nobody else as far as I know predicted gold's heavy fall this Summer.
The Yanks I think unlike the Japs will spend today and forget about tomorrow - they have absolute faith in the FED to bail them out - recent US data seems to confirm this. They will be sorely disappointed, but they do have an extraordinary capacity to recover
I like the SFR because the government tries to keep the money supply under control - it is a surprisingly poor country - the individual people may be rich but they don't pay much tax so there's never enough money to build roads etc. I also spend a lot of my time there
For MER holders apologies for getting a bit off topic

[simon gordon] 29/8/2008 13:03

I have found that Nouriel Roubini, Ken Murray, Moneyweek Posse, Alphaville Crew, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, John Authers and Matthew Lynn, have been nailing it. The vibe from the people above is that the UK economy is heading for a big bust. I think Government spending will be hit and companies like Mears could see earnings for 2010/11 being impacted - the market would then de-rate in advance. I don't like SFR as I read that many building projects are being put into the deep freeze, which could impact 2010/11, as SFR is a long cycle play. I am looking at SEPU as they are exposed to Global growth and their product is almost essential.



Japan printed like hell but they continued to slump. The boom in the US and UK was bigger than the one in Japan. If property and equities slump and the savings rate is near zero then consumers will have to re-build their balance sheets. Its a vicious circle. At least a business can sell off units, cut spending, be taken over, or go bust. Jack and Jill in their semi have very few options to raise fresh capital or escape their debts. A second job maybe if they can find it. It is going to be horrible for all those folks who got into buy-to-let - it reminds me of when many middle class people got slaughtered by the Lloyds fiasco..

[hosede] 29/8/2008 12:20

Simon I'm in SFR - Yen and maybe Yuan would be nice but much more complicated to invest in I think - Gold/ precious metals protect one against inflation but are only moderately successful in a deflationary slump.
I read a mass of financial commentary - the writers mostly disagree or don't know about how it will pan out, but they are almost universally agreed that it will be long and bad - You can safely ignore the main newspaper commentators (like Anatole Kaletsky)who are paid to soothe not to alarm!
I don't see a totally deflationary slump - Bernanke and others of his ilk will pump cash into the economy quite ruthlessly. If they can't persuade the banks to lend and punters to borrow then they'll give away more tax rebate cheques etc. He's not called Helicopter Bernanke for nothing. The result will likely be a fall in the value of assets but a rise in the value of consumables (food oil etc).

[polopolo2] 28/8/2008 19:15

mdrans1

You have a point but hosede has been a regular for years and clearly is pretty knowledgeable on mears. Only wish deehill would return to this bb and give his views. He was a star and knew mears inside out. Whatever became of him?

By the way nice rise in the share price today. 340 on the horizon.

[mdrans1] 28/8/2008 13:36

polopolo

If hosede made a genuine mistake, with his pe figure, then it follows that his negative argument built on that figure was also mistaken. That he has not moderated his negative opinions must tell us something.

[simon gordon] 28/8/2008 13:28

hosede, has been on this thread for years - park off.

hosede, cheers for the kitco link. From my reading the Credit Crisis is getting worse with the gears of the capitalist system grinding to a halt. Fannie, Freddie and Lehman are all close to the edge. Some think that the Investment Banks have little future as their balance sheets become regulated and the paper factories churning out securitised paper have died. Steen Jakobsen at Saxo reckons global credit is contracting by $5 to $10 trillion. I reckon that Britain is heading into a deflationary slump, meaning very few assets will appreciate, a la Japan. The canny Japanese played forex as a way to earn a real return. With the pound collapsing maybe the best bet is to get out of Sterling as the UK economy and political scene looks like it is entering the gates of hell. But which currency is best - the Yen?

[polopolo2] 28/8/2008 13:02

This is getting silly for a bb on such a quality company. Handbags down please gentlemen. I believe hosede made a genuine mistake and it should be put to rest.

[mdrans1] 28/8/2008 12:31

hosede

Who are you kidding? "slightly more than a TYPO". You used your 2 times erroneous figure to justify your argument. Then you edited out the whole passage to cover your embarrassment.

[hosede] 28/8/2008 10:36

Mdrans - getting the PE wrong (since you insist on labouring the point) was just slightly more than a TYPO - I glanced at the results and did a quick (erroneous) calculation. I sold MER because I do not think in this downturn it will have the defensive qualities that many people expect. You can buy the big oils on PEs of single figures and better dividends. Have you read the link I posted above?

[mdrans1] 28/8/2008 08:41

hosede - 21 Aug'08 - 19:32 - 884 of 888

mdrans I bought at 29p but only 20,000 - I supose it was quite a lot of money then. I sold around 260.

hosede

That was cleaver of you. Would that be when you got the PE wrong by a factor of 2 ?

Maybe if you had known the real PE you would have made a loss.

Then maybe not. As I mentioned before, your recent discovery that the PE is only half what you thought it was didn't change your opinion one jot.

[hosede] 26/8/2008 20:53

Josh
When it comes to the nitty gritty I don't think council house repairs are TOP priority and central government funds are even more at risk than local.
This is the sort of nightmare scenario I worry about - I think you'll agree it's truly scary - lets hope it doesn't happen - but I like to have some sort of plan just in case it does!!

[joshalexander] 26/8/2008 18:06

hosede

Point taken.


I think though that MER have chosen their markets very well.
They work in areas that are vital and will continue to be so.

Some may point to low margin work, but i see this as a strenght.
They are not making fat margins from contacts, but can still offer value
to LA's who continue to outsource - a trend that will only increase.

In terms of Local Authority funding for vital services,
only approx. a third comes form Council Tax, the rest and
majority is from Central Government.

With an Election neeed within less than two years,
the Labour Government will be gererous with settlements in my view, there by keeping Council Tax rises as low as possible for April 2009 and 2010.

An issue seems to be recruitment currently,
which will be greatly helpled by the likely Recession/continuing sharp slowdown next year.

This will be particularly so in their Home Care divison, which
is likely to see far easier staff recruitment and retention through 2009 and beyond.

Demographics are working strongly in this Markets favour - and Home Care (where possible) is a far cheaper option for LA's than highly expensive Residential Care.
And often the much preferred option by the "service users".

That is the Bull case, others may have an alternative view.

[hosede] 22/8/2008 12:40

Polopolo see post 879 ACHL is also a possibility - low risk, but maybe low growth as orange trees don't grow that fast!

[polopolo2] 22/8/2008 10:29

Interesting post hosede but I do not see them going below 200, ever. Which chinese AIM shares in particular and is there are particular chinese unit or investment trust with a basket of AIM stocks?

[hosede] 21/8/2008 19:32

mdrans I bought at 29p but only 20,000 - I supose it was quite a lot of money then. I sold around 260. Lets just see how low they go in this slump - my guess is 100-150 in 2010-11
Josh I wasn't comparing them, just pointing out that there are terrific growth shares at PE's a fraction of MER's. If you read my post you will see that I say "e.g chinese AIM shares"

[crickley] 20/8/2008 16:34

From today's Naked Trader:

"Recent buy Mears produced some contract wins driving the price up then results which pushed the price back to where it started! I guess profit-takers couldn't resist.

But it was an excellent statement and I remain in there for the longer-term rewards and in fact right now at under 300p I'm tempted to buy a shedload more Mears. The Times wrote a good piece on them today with a buy rating.

It's doing really well, it's bullish, and it's nicely defensive too so I feel quite confident. In fact I think I might buy some more in a minute...!"