Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 07/4/2022 16:45

We can all be wise after the event but thought the buy back was la la land stuff
as posted here at the time. Their focus should have been debt reduction, not
spending cash reducing the share count given the net debt.

Outside possibility of a bid is arguably the best outcome for holders.

[pugugly] 07/4/2022 16:27

wigwammer - Sorry for your loss but the writing has been on the wall since before they authorised the buyback

[wigwammer] 07/4/2022 16:00

Amazing post event rationalisation. I bet you could get 100% in all your school exams (assuming you'd been given the answer paper beforehand).

[brut winky] 29/3/2022 20:31

wigwammer: going to start buying as it looks like the worst is behind them, cheers for the input.

[pugugly] 29/3/2022 17:20

Turnover vanity - profit sanity - Insanity here (imo)

[wigwammer] 29/3/2022 17:08

I've been buying, brut. Nigh on 0.1x sales for a business probably capable of 5% op margin medium term, and with pretty low economic cyclicality. Some growth potential N international markets too. PMDR purchases reassuring. £23m pension deficit worth mentioning, though that's down £7-8m from last report. Obviously given inflationary pressures on input costs, it hasn't been flavour of the month. But what when those pressures ease, or even retrench? I suspect the price increases they achieve will be sticky upwards, at least for a short time.

[brut winky] 25/3/2022 19:12

Nearly at book value , bit of debt but enough cash and good turnover, digging a little deeper over the weekend. Any LTH hanging around your views would be welcome, Cheers Brut.

[she-ra] 17/2/2022 14:29

Their last reported net debt position was £118.4m. The £80 million is available funding.

I presume net debt has gone up since then.

[blackhorse23] 17/2/2022 11:22

It's massively undervalued .. 80m free cash in bank .. sales around 900m .. mcap 75m .. share price should be 150p

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/2/2022 16:25

Yes, I really can't see any reason to be buying these whatsoever. Former holder with views further back on the thread.

[bookbroker] 16/2/2022 16:21

If you want margins in the single digits, and rapidly going negative.

[blackhorse23] 16/2/2022 14:07

Excellent opportunity to buy yearly sales close to 900m but market cap 70m ... broker prices 150p ... yes buying for my portfolio

[nick rubens] 14/1/2022 15:35

Half year results on Feb 23rd will show a terrible loss and how we'll hear how they expect the full year to pan out. Not convinced that all the bad news is in the share price

They need to pass on the inflationary problem and more to earn a decent margin to the retailer/consumer.

[cottlet] 30/12/2021 10:31

Surely its better to invest in a company with higher profit margins...such as ???

[creditcrunchies] 16/12/2021 15:21

there's write up by Paul today on these says pretty much avoid there could be dilution to plug the debt by raising equity if the banks get twitchy. The biggest problem for MCB is that's it is a low margin business if you analyse this over the past 5 years we've got operating margin issues:
2016 4.83%
2017 4.31%
2018 4.57%
2019 3.69%
2020 2.17%
2021 2.27%
Now look at the company debt the highest ever at £118 million
The working capital is the lowest ever level at £7.7 million (£33.7 million in 2020)
This company will really struggle in an inflationary environment with those tiny margins, high debt and shrinking working capital.

[pugugly] 16/12/2021 09:09

Today's trading update and share price fall to 53p against company buying back shares for cancellation at 80p earlier in the year a real classic example of idiotic management failing to read the tea leaves - Happens only too often and an ANNOUNCEMENT OF BUY-BACKS is often a red flag and needs looking at very closely as a possible message to dump and get out - Certainly was here.

[nick rubens] 07/9/2021 11:54

Figures out today, sounds like the expected production cost savings will be a buffer for the inflationary input costs. No dividend. Not sure I agree with the share buy backs as eventually the market will price the company according to earnings or expected earnings.

Perhaps it's a target for a takeover but who would it be suitable for?

[sphere25] 20/8/2021 09:53

They're not falling over themselves to sell here are they as per a normal warning. A lesser profit warning pre-Covid and MCB gets absolutely creamed, but the market might be giving abit of pass here on these well known issues.

The market has concentrated on the good in the VTU statement today too, despite marked caution on forecasts being hit. Possibly first signs that the market is seeing them as short term.

Not interested in MCB, just how the market is reacting and maneuvering around these threats.

Onwards!

All imo
DYOR

[creditcrunchies] 19/8/2021 16:54

Their margins are so thin on the products they supply any negatives tend to get amplified is something you notice with this stock, I've always ended up taking profits after buying low several times now. If they hit 50p again they're worth a punt to hold and forget for a while

[sphere25] 19/8/2021 09:42

Interested to see how this one moves on the back of that ugly statement. There are a fair few companies warning on similar supply chain issues of late (ULVR, RKT, CTEC to name a few) and today we have:

MCB
CGS
RBN
ENET

The small move down of only 8.5% at the moment looks generous, particularly considering the sequence of cautious statements at MCB of late and will more follow?

The last one in May set this statement up so it will be interesting to see if other companies cautioning on these issues do now start to come out with clear profit warnings.

Currently we are seeing cautious statements, veiled warnings or something along the lines of "We will hit forecasts IF supply chains and costs do not deteriorate".

If these moves down are only small or eventually get bought up (i.e. market genuinely believes them to be very short term in nature), it will provide more assurance, but it is very difficult to say at the moment how long they might last and the nature of the moves.

Furthermore, the US is wobbling on the back of the FED minutes, and with the IWM showing more weakness of late and testing very critical support levels, there are a multitude of factors to consider out there for market participants.

Happy to nip in and out of things and let any quick ones go through a stop at the moment. I can see more selling out there this morning, but still nothing substantial.

Sometimes the US headlines from business channels are alot worse than they appear. I saw "US markets plunge yesterday" and checked and the market was off about 1%...hang on..what?

However, if key support levels do get taken out and that usual wave of buying on the 3-5% dip doesn't come in, then expect some significant selling pressure here and some larger moves down.

A proper correction has been due for a while, but the market continues to gobble up any patches of weakness. The FED is the key factor so how will the market follow through on the release yesterday?

Historically volatile months of September and October to follow.

Possibly a pivotal moment to come?

Let's see how it goes.

All imo
DYOR

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/8/2021 07:49

Wow.

Glad to have left this behind - said at the time it was potentially unreliable and stuck between supplier inflation and without pricing power themselves as their supermarket customer bases would be declining to take the increased costs.

At best, they are saying they will lose half a year's cashflow and profit, with no long term impact. I'm really not sure how much I believe that.

Debt will be higher (it was already quite stretched), interest costs higher...

It's a tough world being in the middle - it's not fair, but it is what it is.

[bookbroker] 19/8/2021 07:38

Shocking statement, 50p today on the cards!

[nick rubens] 27/7/2021 10:03

Cheers apollocred1. Results are due 7th September. Will be interesting to hear of any forward looking statement and potential margin issues with them.