Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[goonertone] 09/12/2010 16:24

Timesmoney

You are begining to sound like John French or one of his ilk.


GT

[timesmoney] 09/12/2010 15:52

I can assure you all that I am not CR. the timming is coincidental.
I do not comment on any other BB or currently on any other stock. I have a particular dislike of this stock. (a man needs a hobby)
I would add that I do find CR refreshing sometimes when others on this bb appear to refuse to accept logic and talk matters up when the picture is clearly bad.
by the way kimboy Morrisons represented 82% of Group sales which given the increase in sales of the other areas of the business, must mean that another major customer has been lost, if so we have not been told which.
I have nothing positive to add to todays results and posts. Anyone who cares to re read my posts of the past will see that I have been entirely consistant in my view of the matrket and the companies prospects.
Yes off course money can and has been made by dipping in and out, but the longer term view is not good.
Anyone who has followed this stock for a time knows that it is worth half of what it was 5 years ago when it was a publisher, disrtibutor with a good management team and interesting prospects.The current management which in reality is TA has managed to put all of the companies prospects (and shreholders interests) in one basket. the gamble is not paying off.
The move into other areas is too little and far to late.

[charliebrown2000] 09/12/2010 15:46

Kimboy. I don't. Just meant it as an example of how large a customer they are.

[kimboy2] 09/12/2010 15:38

Charlie Brown
How do you know that Morrison's account for 80% of revenues ?

[scott84] 09/12/2010 15:04

Best of luck tanners.

[tanners] 09/12/2010 15:01

CR - re GMV and the managment of the company I don't disagree, hence my current mere token holding.

It is interesting though you have been banging on for some time about the market for CDs and DVDs being a busted flush but at the same time were ramping up the supposed fortunes of HMV.......still your principles are your prerogative I guess.

As for this Timesmoney handle, it is just a coinicdence that you (CR) were a prolific negaative poster on this BB up until the 14th October, when you took a fair bit of stick and then have not posted until the current day.

Lo and behold Timesmoney appeared on the 15th October with instant and prolific negative posts and doesn't appear to have posted on any other BBs.

Coincidence.......?


PS Scott......not yet, but due date is Friday, so not long!

[charliebrown2000] 09/12/2010 14:41

Scott. You're not wrong. Predicting the outcome is not the hard bit. It's getting the timing right that is. Lot's of people took credit for saying they spotted that the credit bubble was going to burst, but some of them did it years too soon and people made serious profits in the meantime. However, in this instance, I think we've arrived. IMO I don't think this will turn out to be a good Christmas for entertainment and, for what it's worth, my money is on Morrison's deciding to go further down the road of being the nation's grocer and less interested in competing with the other 3 major supermarkets on providing entertainment. My guess is that, if there is an MBO in the wings, its not because there are golden profits ahead but being driven by a desire to avoid the howls of furious shareholders when things start to go sour.

[rbcrbc] 09/12/2010 14:36

Price moving up, there must be a to-be-late-reported buyer in the background picking up a few bargains.

[scott84] 09/12/2010 14:26

CharlieBrown.

If you keep saying the same thing will happen then eventually you will
be right, as for praising CR about being right we have heard that story
for a long time from him and in that time when he first started to predict
it the shares quadrupled so a broken record will eventually be able to play
some sort of tune :-))

[rbcrbc] 09/12/2010 14:22

The part of the results that says
"As a consequence, profitability for the year to 31 March 2011 is expected to be materially behind revised expectations. "

Is after the headline that reads:

"management have further revised their expectations for the year "

How many revisions have they had ?

Why have they not published their expectations or even a general percentage feel of their expectations and how do they reconcile these constantly falling expectations with the very bullish "Gross margins fell by 0.4% to 10.1%, compared to the period to 30 September 2009. Gross margins are not expected to decline any further. "

We need to be told - A face to face with Peter and Trevor a day or three after the January trading statement where they dont turn up an hour late and dont need to leave propmptly would be very useful IMO.

[charliebrown2000] 09/12/2010 14:19

CR's analysis is fundamentally correct. CD's, DVDs, Bluray and even Games sales sales are declining. HMV is heading for the door - it may be a slow walk, but it's going. Everyone is excited about Sainsburys website and the volume of sales but there's truth in the old saying that revenue is vanity and profit is sanity and noone has the first idea what kind of deal is in place and who is really making money out of those sales which btw are probably driven by the low price discounts and not the full price merchandise. As fo downloads, that ship sailed a long time ago. CR is right again when he points out that it hasn't helped HMV. There's no margin in it. iTunes has the market by the short and curlies and if you take the time to look into it, you'll discover that iTunes doesn't make a profit. Its only real function is to support sales of the ipods, iphones, etc. So, how can you compete with that and hope to make money? The fact that Sky Music is shutting up shop is very relevant. The return (if there ever is one) isn't worth the investment and effort. Poor DD - he has done a sterling job but he's wearing rose titnted specs, I'm afraid. Where are the answers to the really tough questions? One year after the acquisition, where's the revenue, let alone profit, from GMV? What on earth is U-Explore all about (please, please don't tell me that unemployed students looking for a job are going to be buying downloads. Wake up! If ever there was a sector of the market that are illegally downloading...). And finally, Morrisons. Does anyone know what Morrisons strategy on entertainment is since the new CEO took over? And how do you think negotiations are going when you know that you account for 80% of the suppliers revenues?

[microscope] 09/12/2010 13:07

RBCRBC - 9 Dec'10 - 12:28 - 3248 of 3248

'....Methinks that someone has been trying hard to make these figures look as nasty as possible and statements such as 'management have further revised their expectations for the year ' are meaningless without even saying if the revision was up or down after initial sainsbury figures are in.'

I think 'behind' can only mean one thing RBCRBC, clearly they do not expect Sainsbury's to make sufficient difference to the overall result being yet lower, or they would not have said this.

As in, quote:
'.....the year to 31 March 2011 is expected to be materially behind revised expectations.......'

[scott84] 09/12/2010 11:21

Now look what you have done tanners :-))

Any good news yet then O/T ?

ps...the price probably would not be down as much as it was because
pre market it had opened 110-120p but then somebody came along and
sold 30k at 90p 8 mins before the open which destroyed the price.

[cockneyrebel] 09/12/2010 11:14

Tanners - I don't use multi-handles.

I haven't bothered posting here for ages as most don't want an honest appraisal.

All I'd say is the results are shocking. They've also spent a fortune on GMV and today say it will start making sales in Nov - geeze - all that dough and it isn't making sales. HMV can't make downloads worthwhile due to the amount of competition but Cowgill reckons he can. I've not seen much detail on what they expect from GMV and there's certainly not much detail in these results - so much for keeping investors informed.

I guess they are taking a big hit from returns from Morrisons - I'd guess that the Morrisons negotions are taking time and not straight forward as they probably want to get a deal that is more favourable on returns - whether Morrisons would go with that nobody knows but even if they do get Morrisons extended it's likely the margins will be squeezed imo in order to get something in there for returns.

My bet is you ain't getting that 7p divi next year with the costs they are incurring.

CD's and DVD's are a declining market - they are moving to a growing market with downloads which is good but the bad news is that anyone can set up a download site and the competition is huge and getting even bigger. What the hell has GMV been doing if sales are only going to start this Nov? Why have they paid all that out for GMV - would have been cheaper to start their own download co from scratch imo.

CR

[tanners] 09/12/2010 10:42

Shanklin - 9 Dec'10 - 10:34 - 3241 of 3244


To be fair to CR, he does not post under multiple handles and has desisted from posting here today.

Given HMV's dire performance today, I hardly think he's got much to gloat about.

[timesmoney] 09/12/2010 10:40

No, I am not CR I will keep my £5.

[tanners] 09/12/2010 10:40

Fair enough Mas.

Timesmoney - show us one more BB that you post on.

[shanklin] 09/12/2010 10:34

To be fair to CR, he does not post under multiple handles and has desisted from posting here today.

[tanners] 09/12/2010 10:32

Timesmoney you are CR and I claim my 5 pounds.

[shanklin] 09/12/2010 10:28

In terms of last year's reported profit, upon which presumably bonuses were based, the following text is interesting

"MBL's major customer implemented a change in the in-store proposition for home entertainment which increased the concentration of chart titles to the detriment of space historically available for back catalogue titles. As a consequence MBL has credited higher than anticipated returns from the customer which has affected revenue. The terms of the contract with this customer provide limits for returns and it is anticipated that the majority of the stock returned will revert to either the supplier or customer in due course."

Given the £5.7m increase in inventory YoY, I am left wondering how many of these back-catalogue sales, and the associated profits, were shown in the 2009-10 results (boosting said results, and bonuses) and are shown as returns in H1 2010-11, suppressing sales & profits for this period

[timesmoney] 09/12/2010 10:23

Run for the Hills (you will have to run because the one trick pony just went very lame)
Don't say I didnt tell you.

[maxcashflow] 09/12/2010 10:21

RBCRBC,

Admin expenses increase is explained in the statement; due to new systems and costs associated with opening the new digital businesses.

Inventory has only increased by £1m since 31st March; probably stocking up for Christmas as well as stocking their new Channel Island distribution hub.

Max