Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[goonertone] 29/11/2010 08:42

It seems to me that people have become fixated on u-explore and the need to tell the world they don't get it and to try to find some deep dark conspiracy theory between TA and Andy Pickles. We may never know the true relationship or thinking behind but my only concern is will it be profitable or do I write the £2million off when I do my projections.

It's not the easiest business to value so what do you do? All you can do is root around the web and find what snippets you can and try to guestimate a) what they are generating in fees b) are they still growing c)is the cost base growing as fast as the fees d)market penetration and competitors and e) any synergies/cross selling for MBL. Based on this what is MBL's cost/cut.

Is it a good price/deal only time will tell but for now I am concentrating on the main businesses and if u-explore proves to be a sound investment(I think it will be personally)then its an added bonus.

GT

[kramch] 28/11/2010 17:56

Reiterate that last point, no benefit to shareholders to post stuff that's useful to lurking competitors. Something we tend to forget in our quest for openness. K.

[marben100] 28/11/2010 16:38

Hi RBCRBC,

"The only market I can see in the western world is in specialist outlets where customers want an obscure track/album/film on hard nedia and are not themselves internet savvy, and therefore are prepared to wait a little while whilst the shop owner downloads it for them."

I don't think it'll serve the market you're thinking of in the West, as content is pre-downloaded to the kiosk, so more limited in range than what, for example Bee.com can offer (that site IS well placed to serve the "obscure" market you're thinking of).

However, where I could see it working is for "impluse purchases" near the supermarket checkout. If, for example, it displayed a special offer on some popular track, I can imagine it attracting impulse buyers, who can just plug in their iPods etc and buy it on the spot - simpler than searching for things on the web. Given that the kiosk can accept cash, it's also great for kids who won't have a credit/debit card - but can spend their pocket money. 50p in the slot to get the latest Lady Gaga, for example? Remember that impulse buyers are MBL's traditional marketplace. So, I'm prepared to reserve judgement on the kiosk concept in the West - but the "white label" site offering for large retailers looks like a pretty sure-fire winner to me.


One tricky thing re writing up the meeting is that, for example, those that attended know what the deal is with Sainsbury's re marketing/promotion for the entertainment site but it doesn't strike me as wise to post that here, as though it's not price sensitive for shareholders it IS commercially sensitive for negotiations between MBL and retailers. Suffice to say, it's a good win-win deal that minimises risk for MBL but also gives Sains something in return.

Cheers,

Mark

[miamisteve] 28/11/2010 16:37

daviddosh - I think it sounds like a sure thing personally. Mobily pay for the kiosks, and the trial had queues of people lining up. MBL retain all IP for the kiosks.

I suppose the same sort of kiosks will be utilised in asda / fuji

[fft] 28/11/2010 13:51

Jeffian,

thankyou very much for that detailed reply. Confirmed my thoughts/fears. Given the 15% holding, I suspect that it is best to discount any possible benefits from u-explore.

In that kind of situation, i am surprised that TA/MUBL didnt get some warrants that could have been exercised in 3-5 years at a certain price - that at least would have better rewarded MUBL input over the next few years.

[rbcrbc] 28/11/2010 13:41

What did you guys think about the potential of that Mobily deal in the Middle East ?

I am not sure that I see it catching on in the UK as a means of distribution, it seems to offer no benefit over any of the direct internet distribution methods. However in the very large areas of the world where Internet access is restriced eg China it could take off significantly. It'll be interesting to see the results of the UK supermarket trial but I am not wildly expectant for a 'western world' market, but how many potential customers does China have ?

The only market I can see in the western world is in specialist outlets where customers want an obscure track/album/film on hard nedia and are not themselves internet savvy, and therefore are prepared to wait a little while whilst the shop owner downloads it for them. So apart from a few second hand record shops in the Brighton Laines I would focus on the Chinese market.

[jeffian] 28/11/2010 13:16

Yes, thanks for organising that, david, a really worthwhile exercise and an excellent presentation by Matt who came across as very shareholder-friendly - informative, open and approachable.

fft,
I did ask that question. The answer seemed to be that it was very difficult to value early-stage software companies but some very fancy prices had been paid for those perceived to have secured a niche market with barriers to entry for others. Matt said that the combination of U-explore's established client base (mainly Local/Education authorities, schools, uni's etc.), protected IP and the fact that they were now pretty deeply ingrained into the educational system meant that it would be very hard for someone else to replicate. Of course, we all recognise that £2m/15% puts a £13.33m valuation on U-e, which he couldn't comment on but he did say that he foresaw the company as being potentially very valuable indeed a few years down the line. When queried about the £2m, he responded that that was as much as MBL felt comfortable with investing at this stage but was less convincing about the 15% minority stake, which I pointed out gave U-e access to MBL technology/platforms without any real control if the going got rough. His response to that was that it gave us influence but it seems that the heart of the deal is the relationship between Trevor Allan and Andy Pickles and the fact that TA sits on the U-e Board. As ever with this company, our fates all seem to revolve around TA - the signs are that we have a very valuable and potentially fast-growing business; is he going to knuckle down and drive it forward for all our benefits or fiddle around for his own benefit before the true value becomes apparent to a wider market? Matt described TA as "enigmatic"; I don't think he was using the word in its proper sense but he may have been closer than he thought - it means "an unknown quantity"!

[davidosh] 28/11/2010 13:15

Matt said the advertising and marketing was only just about to start and that Sainsbury were going to be pushing it very heavily over next few weeks. What did you guys think about the potential of that Mobily deal in the Middle East ?

[jeff h] 28/11/2010 13:13

Full page ad in yesterdays Daily mail mag for sainsburysentertainment.co.uk - advertising box sets

[rbcrbc] 28/11/2010 11:54

Many thanks to DD - sorry I didnt get to say hello, but your were very busy ;-)

I agree that GMV is the future and the future has enormous potential. But I am still mystified as to the wisdom of the U-explore deal, I just dont get it.

[fft] 28/11/2010 10:03

I couldnt make the presentation, but understand why GMV and U-explore could be very significant.

However, i dont understand the price paid for U-explore. In the Q+A session, what was the rationale/justification given by Matt for the price paid ?


Many thanks to DD for setting this up, and also to Matt for allowing the presentation to be available on the website

[kramch] 28/11/2010 00:10

Well done Dave for setting this up. When MUBL acquired GMV I thought what .... are they doing? Now the potential is clear and wow, this is the future!

Matt gave us a lot of confidence of their control of the physical and digital fulfilment technology and a clear vision of where they are going.

They have a real asset in this team. K.

[marben100] 27/11/2010 18:24

Davidosh, big "thank you" from me for organising the event and an excellent performance by Matt P. Matt has promised to post the presentation on the website and got KPMG's approval to do so. Once it's there, I intend to do a bit of a write up (but don't want to simply repeat what's in the slides).

GMV seems like a business with an exciting future, irrespective of concerns about use of the VAT loophole, as it would be hard work for GMV's retail customers, like Sainsbury's to replicate what GMV have developed over quite a few years (and believe is highy competitive with The Hut's offering to retailers). Moreover, AIUI the loophole is difficult to close, because businesses like The Hut would simply move to other jurisdictions, like Switzerland.

Whilst I understand the rationale for bringing U-explore on-board, I find it hard to justify the price paid at this early stage.

Cheers,

Mark

[davidosh] 27/11/2010 18:05

Remember,remember 5th November...first day launch
Day 5....101238
Day 7....101792 (am)(dvd)
Day 8....102353 (am)(book)
Day 12...104263
Day 20...109109
Day 21...110059 (pm) (Two dvds)
Day 22...111070 (pm)

We are through the 10000 mark and we now know double or multiple purchases have the same order number plus goods over £18 are delivered from within UK. There are some very high value orders and even Xbox consoles and playstations have been ordered through the site so average order values must be in excess of £15 IMO and probably nearly £20.


Well done to Matt Porter an absolutely first class and very informative presentation yesterday which lasted nearly two hours with a full hour of non stop questions from the floor and ALL answered openly and honestly by Matt.

A shame that only 21 could make it in the end due to a few being caught out by the weather and one stuck on the M40 for two hours in standstill due to a serious accident ahead. An excellent presentation though and Matt has assured us he will make it available on the website and also said that because there were still so many questions coming in from the floor that he would like to do these at least twice a year and maybe even more regularly if there is such demand and interest.

Incidentally I was right. GMV are doing work with ASDA too. Surely Morrisons will be thinking about a move online in the near future and Matt will be well placed for that contract having done such a great job with the Sainsbury Entertainment site.

[jonc] 26/11/2010 12:12

hangers lives in Cambodia btw.

[mr hangman] 26/11/2010 12:07

Isnt it about time we canceled Christmas, world war III is about to start
we have mass unemployment, famine, rising oil prices, people have not got
the time to hang around on websites buying cheap DVD's

[davidosh] 26/11/2010 11:59

smellyjim....lol

I wonder how much marketing and promotion is going into driving traffic to the Entertainment website. They have to sign up first so at least it will be easier getting them back for repeat business and hopefully the site will get very busy in the four weeks leading into Christmas.

[smellyjim] 26/11/2010 07:40

Scott84 - 18 Nov'10 - 09:32 - 3076 of 3093
How old are you then David, just curious ?


Karl I've told you before this aint a dating sight ffs.

[shanklin] 26/11/2010 06:48

So, presumably up to just over 600 orders per day.

[davidosh] 26/11/2010 04:08

Remember,remember 5th November...first day launch
Day 5....101238
Day 7....101792 (am)(dvd)
Day 8....102353 (am)(book)
Day 12...104263
Day 20...109109

[patersdw] 25/11/2010 22:40

Order No. 109109 via sainsburys

Didn't buy via Sainsburys because of my interest in MBL, did it because it was cheaper than anywhere else coming up on my shop-bot!

[davidosh] 23/11/2010 13:28

That is coincidental timing. I have just had confirmation from the Takeover Panel that the meeting can go ahead as planned on Friday with their appointed advisor in attendance. Matt Porter will be providing the presentation but none of the directors will be present.

The meeting is at 4.30pm on Friday at Brewin Dolphin, 12 Smithfield, London EC1

We have a very large turnout indeed and if any more shareholders want to be added I will need to set a cut off at 5pm tomorrow so that I can get a final list for the receptionist at Brewins or it will be a nightmare at the desk.

About fifteen of us are having dinner afterwards.

Any more wanting to come ?

[miamisteve] 23/11/2010 12:56

David - Just arrived in the UK. Could you put up the details of the Matt Porter meeting again? Time + Date + Location. Cheers.

[fmcalorum] 23/11/2010 09:34

My top story 3 arrived yesterday from bee.com. Dont know where it was delivered from but if it needs to be returned it goes back to lancashire

[davidosh] 22/11/2010 22:58

Just had an interesting email from the Sainsbury team....(looks like they are out to please their new customers and win a few new ones with good PR !)

Dear Customer,

Notice Regarding: Toy Story 3 - DVD.

We are contacting you in relation to the above item which has recently
been despatched to you by the Sainsbury's Entertainment Team.
Sainsbury's reduced the price of this product on the release date (22nd
November 2010) to £8.99 from its original online price of £9.99.

As your product was ordered and despatched prior to the price drop was
implemented, we have refunded a total of £1.00 to your credit card. This
refund has been made to the card on which you have paid for the product.

We would like to take this opportunity to thank you for shopping on the
Sainsbury's Entertainment site and that you enjoy Toy Story 3 and thank
you for ordering this product.

Best wishes
The Sainsbury's Entertainment Team