Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 09/12/2010 08:13

careful kimboy, £6.4m would lead to earnings of 37p before tax, over 26p EPS.

We'd be on a shockingly high PER of over 3 then! Yoiks! :)

Seriously, the success of ecommerce, and the outcome of the Morrisons renewal are the keys here at the moment.

[kimboy2] 09/12/2010 08:04

Well it seems that profit has fallen from £3.1m to £2m once you add back the costs of the new projects. This it would appear is mainly due to Morrisons having reduced the space for back titles.

If this was pro rata and there was no further costs on the new projects, or revenues, then this would result in £6.4m pbt for the year.

[fmcalorum] 09/12/2010 08:02

Another brick in place for the MBO!

[goonertone] 09/12/2010 08:01

Not that far off what I feared. The price paid for GMV always suggested that the price to pay would be in the ongoing costs of supporting it to market which is impacting these figures to the tune of 6pps.

Everyone on here knew or should have known that the initial bounce from the demise of Woolworths would not be ongoing and that sales would decline gradually over the years until the boards strategy starts to kick in re new income streams.

For me nothing has changed other than the facts that most people knew and could see were impacting the market are now in the public domain.

GMV is key and we shall see in the new year what the reality of that is and how the market will perceive it. The problem in the meantime is how painful will the price chart be in the interveneing period.

GT

[edmundshaw] 09/12/2010 07:45

Shocking headline, but not nearly so bad if you look at the detail.

1) It's H1. H2 results are much more important.

2) Results for wholesale are turnover down 14% , which has resulted in a 45% drop in op. profit. The weak new release titles and the maturity of the current generation of games hardware are probably mostly to blame, as has been commented and as is mentioned in ther results. This is likely therefore to improve. Hopefully Morrisons will fix the change in the in-store layout too, especially given the new titles.

3) The remainder of the profit drop is investment in IT and ecommerce, which has resulted in SBRY online platform and bee.com (and more to come potentially). Plus "other" which is explained as due to ecommerce again. Many cos would account for this as exceptional items, and hide it from the headline results...

Transition period, guys, January trading will be more useful benchmark.

[fft] 09/12/2010 07:40

i hope that TA is considering a cut in his 'remuneration'. That would have added many pennies to the bottom line...

[scott84] 09/12/2010 07:35

I cannot defend those results, they are poor.

Suggest some of you value investors have a look at Dcd now as i always
thought Mubl represented the best value but now i think different.

[alroyrob] 09/12/2010 07:28

Shocking results !
David, after putting in such hard work researching this company,...you deserved better. :o(

[someuwin] 09/12/2010 07:18

Results look grim to me.

[strollingmolby] 08/12/2010 21:15

Ahem, thanks GT. Thought I'd discovered the secret formula of Coca-Cola then...

[tacobumpy] 08/12/2010 21:05

Hi David

As you are undobtedly aware you cannot rely on the data. We are at a peak shopping period, the weather will have meant some people spending extra time at home and perhaps using that to get their Xmas shopping done online and there has been heavy discouting to get customers to the website.

This does at least mean that a lot of data has been harvested for future use, but Internet customers are fickle and price sensitive and generally go for the cheapest they can find.

Your listing also does not take into account orders that may be cancelled before delivery or returned.

I made a purchase from the site for Christmas a Balamory DVD for my son. Ordered on the 17th Nov with an estimated delivery date of 30th Nov. I received an Email on 30th Nov saying it was out of stock. I was close to looking elsewhere, but received an Email on the 2nd Dec to say it had been dispatched, but it has not yet been delivered.

All anecdotal as your list is and simply a caveat to not take that traffic as read or a guide to future traffic.

On now to the profit warning, the business would appear to be expanding fast and winning new contracts. Could the profit warning be as a result of this expansion with a lot of cash being spent on the new ventures hence not meeting previous expectations. We will find out soon, but my suspicion is that this may be the reason. If so, that is a pretty good reason for a profit warning.

Regards
Taco

[goonertone] 08/12/2010 20:24

David

We are in the busiest 2 weeks for online sales so trying to draw inference from growth here is somewhat tenous, interesting non the less.


Strolling Molby

The full price list is on the u-explore website



GT

[davidosh] 08/12/2010 18:21

Well none of us know what tomorrow will bring ....or at least not until the morning but we do know that the Sainsbury website is going from strength to strength. I have received an email with someone order details for three stocking filler games this afternoon. Nearly 3000 orders in just a few hours of daylight trading online...WOW.


05/11/10..first day launch (the first digit is a dummy number)

Day 5....101238
Day 7....101792 (am)(dvd)
Day 8....102353 (am)(book)
Day 12...104263
Day 20...109109
Day 21...110059 (pm) (Two dvds)
Day 22...111070 (pm)
Day 25...114342 (am) (multiple order)
Day 27...118502 (am) (boxed set)
Day 28...121238
Day 30...123742 (pm) (boxed set) 5/12
Day 31...125690 (pm) (three childrens annuals)
Day 32...129318 (pm) (Two dvds) 7/12
Day 32...130036 (midnight) (6 Wii games)
Day 33...132688 (pm)
Day 35...136495 (am)

If they are busy again this evening as they were late last night then that could be 5000 sales today to midnight. Who is going to do the honours late tonight ?....lol

Just look at the rate of growth every five days from the above figures....

Day 5...01238
Day 10..03263
Day 20..09109
Day 25..14342
Day 30..23742
Day 35..40000 ? How close can it get ?

That is very impressive considering the main Sainsbury grocery online site only gets 120,000 orders a week

[jeffian] 08/12/2010 18:01

Times,

If all my "dogs" were up 100% (after 200%) and paid a nice growing divi covered over 5x by earnings, I'd be happy! Your points about open-ness and corporate governance have been widely covered by others above. With a share price at only 3x earnings, surely some, if not all, of that risk is in the price?

Anyway, let's see what tomorrow brings.

[shanklin] 08/12/2010 16:46

davidosh

It will be interesting to see whether the interim results contain anything substantive in terms of outlook as last year's interims provided no information in this respect.

Clearly, I would much prefer such information to be provided.

Cheers, Martin

[davidosh] 08/12/2010 16:36

The company will not have expanded on the trading update they provided two months ago when they entered the offer period under takeover panel rules as to do so would require audited information. They cannot provide detailed information and that is why the results tomorrow should help understand more and the outlook with only two weeks to Christmas will be very helpful too.

[timesmoney] 08/12/2010 16:26

Jeffian
Sorry, so keen to send a message back to Scott84 I missed your post.
The very fact that you can list all the positives yet the stock is still so poorly rated underlines my point. In the absence of 'other' issues logic would demand a decent rating, but is isn't there.
I have listed these resons many times and nothing has changed my view in the recent past.
In fact I stand by my post regarding the profits warning, and the reasons for it.

[scott84] 08/12/2010 16:26

ps...it's hard not to ramp a stock when it has no debt, cash and makes
half it's market cap in profits each year !

You want to look around these boards and check the ramping on stocks
worth 50 mil + that are loss making and have debt etc etc !

You can hardly blame punters for being keen here !

[timesmoney] 08/12/2010 16:19

So Scott84 give me a better (or any) explanantion of the profits warning and lack of info since. And while you are at it, tell us why my explanation may not be on the money? This forum is really useful if you treat others with respect.
And you have absolutely no idea how, when, where or for how long or at what level I have been involved in AMU.
Be cautious and try not to make a fool of yourself.
And finally 'deramping' suggests 'ramping' six of one half a dozen of the other.

[scott84] 08/12/2010 16:00

Dont forget since mr timesmoney has shown up the share have gained around
30p !

Not bad considering all his deramping !

[jeffian] 08/12/2010 15:58

Ratings aside, it's hard to see how this warrants the description "dog". A glimpse at the long-term chart shows that the share price has gone from sub-60 to over 180 before settling back around 120 (+100% over 2 years); turnover, profits and dividends have shown stonking growth; it's strongly cash-generative and the Balance Sheet has net cash and no borrowings. We'll have to see what surprises tomorrow brings, but as long as they focus on the fundamentals, the share price will look after itself in due course.