Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 23/11/2016 10:57

Somebody dumping chunky amounts...do they know something we don't?..

[lord gnome] 21/11/2016 08:42

In for a few this morning. Hoping the run up to decent numbers will be profitable.

[ianood] 20/11/2016 17:05

Hope that's true libertine, its what we have been looking to for some time now and could result in a re-rating of MARS.

[defcon3] 12/11/2016 15:33

Don't forget to pick up a discount card too. New one came in the post recently

[jeff h] 01/11/2016 12:08

Never thought much of Marstons management though recently I have started to think
that times are changing and have bought some...some news about them:-

[jeffian] 01/11/2016 09:44

Go on, then!

[paulhoward2002uk] 01/11/2016 08:12

They have 1.2billion of Debt?! Is this not a major factor to short?

[redartbmud] 29/10/2016 20:44

Hedged my bets and added Gnk on the Brexit fall. Gnk now under water, but it may come good for Christmas.

[jeffian] 29/10/2016 11:47

"So MARS was intended to be the slow and steady one to counter-balance that."
Exactly how I use it, maffoo, which is why I initially queried your "2 weeks" comment. I've held some of these since Wolverhampton & Dudley days and also took up the unpopular Rights Issue. It hasn't exactly been my star performer but it's still there and still paying a divi, which is more than I can say for some of the racier shares I've invested in over the years! Unless something dramatic happens to change things, I'd stick it in the bottom drawer for a few years and forget about it. Mind you, if you did the same thing with GNK (discussed above), I think you'd do better.

[r ball] 28/10/2016 20:02

Kinda plodding. Cask ales is the hidden gem. I can see this bit being sold to a mega brewer.

[maffoo] 28/10/2016 19:23

Yes, the dividend yield and donkey-ish stability is the reason I went for it. Other investments I've made are much more small cap and volatile, for example Berkeley Energia (BKY), who have been at a loss for a while but are meant to explode (quite literally, it's Uranium) in the next couple of years. So MARS was intended to be the slow and steady one to counter-balance that.

Assuming it's stable enough that I shouldn't expect it to plummet and die in the coming months/years, I'm fine to hold. Just wanted to check that the general consensus wasn't too pessimistic. I'm very new to all this (if you hadn't garnered that yet) and seeing these big minus numbers is still worrying to me, especially as it becomes clear that I did invest a little too early.

Thanks to both of you for the help, much appreciated.

[skinny] 28/10/2016 16:48

I agree - I bought them 5 years ago @94p and sold a third @164.

Perhaps donkey is a bit harsh - but not by much - they are never going to set the World alight but they do pay (at the moment) a reasonable 5+% yield.

Also your timing was unfortunate - see my post below from 11th.

Skinny11 Oct '16 - 16:17 - 1776 of 1789 0 0 Edit

I'm not sure if there has been a sector upgrade, but JDW is up 3.2%, GNK +1.3%, ETI +3.8% and MAB +1.3%.

[jeffian] 28/10/2016 16:31

It rather depends what you are looking for, maffoo. MARS are unlikely ever to set the world alight; they plod along making steady but unspectacular growth. They are highly geared (which many investors do not like) but the borrowing is secured on good quality property assets. It has a reasonable dividend yield but that is not particularly well covered and growth in divi is likely to be subdued. It's a bit of a donkey but suits my purposes as a reasonably secure and stable dividend payer. However, it's been stuck in the same range for nearly 4 years now. If you are expecting fireworks, this probably isn't the share for you.

[maffoo] 28/10/2016 16:18

@jeffian - Yeah, you are correct. I bought based mainly on an H&L tip without doing much research because I assumed it would be much more stable than it maybe is at the moment. Probably just being neurotic and should look more at the long run!

[jeffian] 28/10/2016 15:57

"I've not invested a huge amount in, but it doesn't seem massively promising to me at the moment."

Two whole weeks, eh?! If it "doesn't seem massively promising" to you now, what was it that prompted you to buy 2 weeks ago and what has changed?

[skinny] 28/10/2016 15:46

Broker notes since :-

13 Oct Beaufort Securities Buy 134.10 - - Reiterates
12 Oct N+1 Singer Buy 134.10 170.00 182.00 Reiterates
12 Oct Numis Add 134.10 185.00 165.00 Reiterates

[skinny] 28/10/2016 15:45

Whilst no guarantee, this is from the recent trading update (I'm a long term holder).

Marston's PLC ("the Group") issues the following update on trading for the year ended 1 October 2016. The preliminary results will be announced on 24 November 2016.

Trading
We have made good progress this year with underlying profit before tax in line with management expectations.

In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales were 2.3% ahead of last year including food like-for-like sales growth of 1.7% and wet like-for-like sales growth of 2.3%, underpinned by strong growth in room income. In the last 10 weeks of the period like-for-like sales have grown 1.8%. Operating margin is in line with last year and we completed 22 new pubs and bars and six lodges in the financial year just ended. In the 2017 Financial Year we plan to open at least 22 pubs and bars and at least five lodges with the openings programme weighted towards the second half year. We continue to have a good pipeline of sites to maintain similar levels of expansion for the foreseeable future.

In Taverns, like-for-like sales were 2.7% ahead of last year, with growth of 2.0% in the last 10 weeks including a strong performance in our franchise estate.

In Leased, like-for-like profits are estimated to be up 2% compared to last year.

In Brewing, our beer brands have performed very strongly, with own-brand volumes up 13% for the financial year and profits in line with management expectations.

[maffoo] 28/10/2016 15:04

I bought two weeks ago at 141.664; the constant dropping of price is starting to worry me a bit. Are people assuming this will bounce back or is it time to jump ship? I've not invested a huge amount in, but it doesn't seem massively promising to me at the moment.

[bench2] 17/10/2016 19:49

MARS not helped by GNK price collapse today , see my post on GNK for an explanation .

[exel] 12/10/2016 09:36

Seems that the market has read update this wrongly. why? the second half comparison (with last year) was always seen to be a tough one to beat, and it has been beaten. 'like for like' excludes the new outlets, surely? and any smaller disposed wet-led units. So, with about 25 new sites (again!) this year (and a further batch to come next year et seq) the overall platform, here, has not just been improved, it has been 'grown'. Amazingly, the prelims due next month could actually surprise people, who must (judging by the weak showing today) have merely fixated on the modest level of 'like for like' sales increase. The monetary sales increase will surely be bigger? and the impact on profit (not mentioned today - other than 'in line') should further reveal the 'earnings inflection point' referred to way back earlier on this thread. Anyway, happy to top up at 142p - roll on the prelims. I'm with Cannacord & Panmure on this, unless they retreat from 175p and 180/185p. Even at any of these levels, MARS would still be rated well below GNK on any meaningful measure. Just my take. DYOR ex

[redartbmud] 12/10/2016 07:58

Trading results steady as you go. Modest growth.

[skinny] 11/10/2016 16:38

Yes, so have I.

Both Cannacord and Panmure have had 175p TPs for at least a year and Numis 180/185 for similar - I don't mind which.

[exel] 11/10/2016 16:25

Thanks Skinny, very good context! Doesn't make MARS look that exceptional? Still like their business model and have reasonable hopes from tomorrow's update. ex