Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[scobak] 09/12/2017 13:21

Exel - apppears that MARS have the edge though I have not seen any direct comparisons.
I always seem to have trouble reconciling like to like due to differing reporting periods / exceptionals / exchange rates and so on. Maybe that is a good excuse for being bloody lazy.

[exel] 08/12/2017 20:42

scobak, if IC are pushing GNK (perfecting reasonable) then that is doubly good news for MARS re 1. sector sentiment and 2. MARS edge on fundamentals (last time I looked). Will re-do the MARS v GNK profile re TNAV ps as % of share price, PE, yield, cover, sales growth, gearing, etc. unless it's already been done? Good luck all!

[jeffian] 08/12/2017 16:43

Is that 'before' or 'after'?

[skinny] 08/12/2017 16:16

He wears a disguise !

[jeffian] 08/12/2017 16:10

Anonymously? One of the best-known blokes in the trade, 6'5"-odd with a mullet and a strange accent somewhere between Bristol and New Zealand? I don't think so!

[skinny] 08/12/2017 15:28

Sounds like a nice hobby! :-)

[arf dysg] 08/12/2017 15:27

The Wetherspoons chairman Tim Martin was on Desert Island Discs. He likes to visit at least 10 pubs a week (anonymously) just to see what it feels like to be a customer.

[chinese investor] 08/12/2017 08:21

125p Soon !

[scobak] 07/12/2017 20:12

Greene King is a weekly buy tip in Investors Chronicle tomorrow.

[exel] 07/12/2017 16:10

Thanks speedsgh, All very good, especially those 3 little words: 'Unlike Greene King'

[speedsgh] 06/12/2017 14:07

From Tempus column in today's Times...

Three companies to buy for yield (GSK MARS DC.) -

...Marston’s: yield 6.6 per cent
Like its fellow brewer Greene King, Marston’s offers the promise of a wet-smacking dividend for yield-thirsty investors. Unlike Greene King, it is on firm ground in a more promising part of the market. This year it bought Charles Wells brewery (not including its pubs), which brings brands such as Bombardier, Courage and McEwan’s under Marston’s stewardship. Two years earlier it bought Daniel Thwaites’ beer division. Those deals bolstered the group’s position at the premium end of the market, adding to a stable that already included Hobgoblin and Wainwright, without over-extending its property footprint.

The shares popped 10 per cent last week after strong results, but they remain good value and are still nearly 20 per cent below the levels reached in March, closing at 118¼p.

[chinese investor] 05/12/2017 08:16

Looking Good !

[richie1218] 03/12/2017 20:44

hxxps://www.expressandstar.com/news/business/2017/12/01/1-billion-and-counting-how-marstons-rose-to-top-of-the-beer-business/

[spacecake] 03/12/2017 11:50

I wonder if Founders craft brewers will take up the slack capacity at Wells brewery for the push into the UK ?

[ianood] 02/12/2017 16:18

A self selection for the filter button?

[wrestlingmad] 02/12/2017 09:10

MARSTON’S FY ANALYSTS’ MEETING:

Following the release of its full year numbers earlier today, Marston’s hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments are set out below:

Trading:

• The group maintains that this has been a year of continued progress. Marston’s highlighted just how much it has changed since the financial crisis.

• It has sold ‘bad’ pubs and built good ones.

• Trading has been solid & MARS has achieved sales growth without resorting to discounting

• Wet sales are outperforming food sales at the moment. Wet sales are level (prices are up) but food sales are down in volume terms.

• The level of discounting has increased markedly recently. Marston’s is not taking part. This refusal to discount is helping margins but means that LfL sales are being held back a little.

• Brewing has ‘had an outstanding year’. The division has a ‘proven acquisition ability’. Further expansion in this area would not come as a surprise.

• MARS has virtually no retail park exposure.

• The number of MRO requests has been ‘insignificant’.

• Scottish minimum pricing should be either neutral or marginally beneficial.

Outlook:

• The group ’knows where its growth is coming from’. It will fully incorporate Charles Wells and this year will see a full year contribution from the nine pubs purchased in FY17 and from the 19 that the company has built.

• Lodges in particular can take 2yrs to build to maturity. The group can add 5-10 units per annum going forward

• There is ‘plenty of growth away from hotspots’. It is expanding into the latter space that has caused problems for a number of casual diners.

• In the current uncertain market, the group is slowing its opening programme – though it still expects to open 15 pubs and 6 lodges in the current year

• Costs are largely controlled for FY18. This contrasts with comments made by a number of other companies recently.

Balance sheet & cash flow:

• Marston’s securitisation does not need any near term attention and fixed charge cover has been maintained at 2.6x

• The group does not want to over-service this debt structure. Some 45% of group EBITDA comes from outside the securitisation.

Conclusion & Outlook:

• Marston’s CEO Ralph Findlay pointed out that the group is 94% freehold, has LTV debt of only 56% and has a net asset value of 147p per share.

• Whilst impacted by the wider economy, the company will achieve growth this year on the back of a full year contribution from Charles Wells, the new build pubs completed in FY17 and the assets purchased in the last financial year

Langton Comment:

• Marston’s numbers have pleased the market and the group’s assertion that it is at least to some extent the master of its own destiny has been similarly well-received.

• Christmas will be important. It always is but, to some extent, just how trade settles down into 2018 could have an even more material impact on how MARS and its peers are viewed by the market.

• Because, with the group’s shares little higher than they were at the heights of the financial crisis 10yrs ago, a material slowdown is arguably being factored in.

• And this may happen but, at the moment, there are few signs that the consumer is willing to turn his/her back on the affordable treats that, at the end of the day, may be said to make life worth living.

• Selling what the public wants, from well-maintained (and preferably freehold) units and at acceptable prices, is likely to remain the key to success.

• Even after this morning’s bounce, Marston’s shares trade at only around 8x earnings and, though there are wider economic concerns regarding the consumer, the shares would appear to offer good value at these levels.

[lord gnome] 02/12/2017 07:15

And your point is?

[r ball] 02/12/2017 05:54

Useful but you what about other information out there:-Trade pressOther companiesSector specific analyst reports

[exel] 01/12/2017 17:49

Thanks Fangorn2 - great summary and very compatible with the content of yesterday's announcement. Happy holding these!

[lord gnome] 01/12/2017 15:57

Thanks for that Fangorn2. A most interesting summary.

[jeffian] 01/12/2017 15:12

Thanks, Fangorn, very interesting.

[fangorn2] 01/12/2017 13:22

MARSTON’S FY ANALYSTS’ MEETING:

Following the release of its full year numbers earlier today, Marston’s hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments are set out below:

Trading:

• The group maintains that this has been a year of continued progress. Marston’s highlighted just how much it has changed since the financial crisis.

• It has sold ‘bad’ pubs and built good ones.

• Trading has been solid & MARS has achieved sales growth without resorting to discounting

• Wet sales are outperforming food sales at the moment. Wet sales are level (prices are up) but food sales are down in volume terms.

• The level of discounting has increased markedly recently. Marston’s is not taking part. This refusal to discount is helping margins but means that LfL sales are being held back a little.

• Brewing has ‘had an outstanding year’. The division has a ‘proven acquisition ability’. Further expansion in this area would not come as a surprise.

• MARS has virtually no retail park exposure.

• The number of MRO requests has been ‘insignificant’.

• Scottish minimum pricing should be either neutral or marginally beneficial.

Outlook:

• The group ’knows where its growth is coming from’. It will fully incorporate Charles Wells and this year will see a full year contribution from the nine pubs purchased in FY17 and from the 19 that the company has built.

• Lodges in particular can take 2yrs to build to maturity. The group can add 5-10 units per annum going forward

• There is ‘plenty of growth away from hotspots’. It is expanding into the latter space that has caused problems for a number of casual diners.

• In the current uncertain market, the group is slowing its opening programme – though it still expects to open 15 pubs and 6 lodges in the current year

• Costs are largely controlled for FY18. This contrasts with comments made by a number of other companies recently.

Balance sheet & cash flow:

• Marston’s securitisation does not need any near term attention and fixed charge cover has been maintained at 2.6x

• The group does not want to over-service this debt structure. Some 45% of group EBITDA comes from outside the securitisation.

Conclusion & Outlook:

• Marston’s CEO Ralph Findlay pointed out that the group is 94% freehold, has LTV debt of only 56% and has a net asset value of 147p per share.

• Whilst impacted by the wider economy, the company will achieve growth this year on the back of a full year contribution from Charles Wells, the new build pubs completed in FY17 and the assets purchased in the last financial year

Langton Comment:

• Marston’s numbers have pleased the market and the group’s assertion that it is at least to some extent the master of its own destiny has been similarly well-received.

• Christmas will be important. It always is but, to some extent, just how trade settles down into 2018 could have an even more material impact on how MARS and its peers are viewed by the market.

• Because, with the group’s shares little higher than they were at the heights of the financial crisis 10yrs ago, a material slowdown is arguably being factored in.

• And this may happen but, at the moment, there are few signs that the consumer is willing to turn his/her back on the affordable treats that, at the end of the day, may be said to make life worth living.

• Selling what the public wants, from well-maintained (and preferably freehold) units and at acceptable prices, is likely to remain the key to success.

• Even after this morning’s bounce, Marston’s shares trade at only around 8x earnings and, though there are wider economic concerns regarding the consumer, the shares would appear to offer good value at these levels.

[welloiledbeefhooked] 30/11/2017 11:52

My local club was under Charles Well until the recent takeover by Marstons. Our guy who runs the bar isn't too impressed so far. Delivering stuff he hadn't ordered, out of stock no visit by a rep yet.

So still room for improvement.

[lord gnome] 30/11/2017 11:01

Things are looking up. A long way to go for me to get back to my 140p (ish) average, so not getting too excited just yet. Nice yield to keep me warm.

[skinny] 30/11/2017 10:24

Numis Add 115.70 125.00 125.00 Reiterates