Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 10/10/2017 07:05

Solid statement.

Notice the slight training of 2018 CAPEX, would expect more of that
to come.

The CEO perhaps getting the message the market is sending imv.

[dunns_river_falls] 10/10/2017 07:04

Good update. Steady as she goes

[skinny] 10/10/2017 07:03

Marston's PLC issues the following update on trading for the year ended 30 September 2017. The preliminary results will be announced on 30 November 2017.

Trading
We made further progress in implementing our strategy, achieving growth in revenue and earnings led by the performance of wet-led pubs and brewing.

In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales were 0.9% above last year. The more subdued summer trading and relatively stronger performance of wet sales compared to food sales was consistent with the market. A disciplined approach to pricing and promotions and good cost control contributed to the operating margin in Destination and Premium being only slightly below last year despite the continued cost pressures.

In Taverns, like-for-like sales were 1.6% above last year. These wet-led community pubs continue to benefit from greater consumer interest in local beers and craft drinks and the continuing development of our offers, together with the continued strong performance of pubs operated under franchise-style agreements.

In Leased, like-for-like profits are estimated to be up 1% compared to last year reflecting the high quality of our Leased estate, together with licensee stability.

In Brewing, we have had a transformational year including the successful acquisition of the Charles Wells Brewing and Beer ("CWBB") business in June, and growth in distribution through entering into long term agreements including Punch B and Hawthorn Leisure. The integration of CWBB is on track, and performance is in line with our expectations. Own-brewed volumes increased 6% demonstrating the strength of our brand portfolio and the acquisition of CWBB, and contributed to market share growth in the on trade and the off trade.

Estate Expansion
We completed 19 new pubs and bars and eight lodges. Openings were weighted towards the end of the financial year, and four pubs planned for September will open in late October.

In the 2018 financial year we now expect to open 15 pubs and bars, and six lodges. This modest trimming of our openings programme reflects a degree of caution given recent subdued market conditions, but our investment criteria are unchanged. Our new pubs continue to open strongly and the performance of those opened in recent years remains good and in line with targets. We remain confident that investment in new pubs and bars creates shareholder value, and is an important component of our strategy to achieve organic growth. We have a good pipeline of sites beyond 2018.

Outlook
Sales and profits for the year are ahead of last year, and we target further growth in 2018. There is no significant change to the cost trends highlighted previously, but we have identified cost savings of approximately £5m per annum including the recently announced reorganisation of the pub operational structure, demonstrating that we are alert to opportunities to mitigate ongoing cost increases.

Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"Our priority is to focus on quality, service and standards. We are well placed to continue to implement our growth strategy through investment in higher quality pubs and bars and through our unrivalled beer brand range supported by high customer service standards.''

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2017 23:23

They don't need to change tack, just defer a % of their expansionary CAPEX.

[spacecake] 09/10/2017 22:09

Yes, but Marstons only think long term, 20 years + therefore to change tack is going to be a slow process.

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2017 18:50

If they reduce 2018/19 CAPEX budgets, the market may like that,
depending on margin guidance and current L4L.

The market does not want to hear about shiny new expansions plans atm.
Cash generation and debt metrics more important in late cycle
with macro risks increasing.

[exel] 09/10/2017 18:38

This is the problem Spacecake! In a nutshell - tomorrow will be interesting....

[spacecake] 09/10/2017 17:40

Well the broker reports don't seem to be able to mention one without the other.

[exel] 09/10/2017 17:24

GNK down 2.8% today
MARS down 3.2% today
Whose dragging who?
Is there the linkage that the market seems to assume?

[essentialinvestor] 09/10/2017 16:30

Luck for tomorrow folks, will have look in the morning.

[andyj] 09/10/2017 15:58

And that isn't a good sign!

[spacecake] 09/10/2017 15:18

Down again ahead of tomorrows trading statement.

[skinny] 09/10/2017 07:58

Year End Trading Statement tomorrow.

[exel] 08/10/2017 22:37

hugely oversold....

[spacecake] 07/10/2017 18:50

Mastons annual returns

2016 -13.93%
2017 -18.09%

According to Morningstar

Trailing returns

1 month -4.61%
3 month -11.66%
1 year -20.42%
3 year ann -3.2%
5 year ann +3.4%
10 year ann -3.85%

Not the greatest example of "growth" by any stretch of the imagination. 10 years of capital expenditure for a negative return.

[luderitz] 06/10/2017 22:44

SP On the up all be it slowly.

[lord gnome] 06/10/2017 15:40

I don't have a problem with the new HQ building. It's good to see that the employees have a decent place to work.

[arf dysg] 06/10/2017 14:32

I suspect the placees (big investment firms) are working in exactly the same kind of offices, paid for in exactly the same way, i.e. with other people's money.

[spacecake] 06/10/2017 11:37

Share price has been going down for two years, whatever the company choose to say next week I doubt it will be anything more than last years statement with slightly different numbers. LFL 2.3 - 2.7% last year, near inflation, no real growth. Expect much the same LFL at inflation level. Cash flow spent on debt service and building ever more pubs.

I wonder how the Wells Brewery placement investors are feeling, maybe they will discuss it at the new £10 mill HQ vanity project below...

[luderitz] 06/10/2017 08:28

I'm feeling positive about next weeks TU and the ongoing share price appreciation.

[exel] 05/10/2017 10:42

EI - don't disagree at all! have commented on CapEx criteria before. can't believe the MARS Board only has one gear on this issue, given all the experience & metrix available to them. Sense they may signal a modicum of 'dial back' with the UK economy 'weak and weakening'. But also feel their biz profile/mix and GNK's are sometimes wrongly compared. Clearly there are comparisons, but these are not total 'like for like' sector travellers. Not expecting fireworks from the 10oct17 update, but am hoping for some evidence that MARS is performing a tad better than the share price would suggest. Will look again at last time's update from 12/10/16...

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2017 13:12

exel, the expansionary CAPEX needs dialing back, just my take.

[exel] 04/10/2017 13:10

it offers MARS as a long hold if the div is cut?, but not if there is justification for maintaining it? (ie cover profit cash flow etc). an interesting view!

I personally disagree that taking in new equity for the CW acquisition was a bad move! Would new debt have been better? Not to my mind. Also, there would have been at least some diligence carried out, around that placing, as has been said before. In terms of what has come about recently, the MARS board look a tad smart getting 137p. we'll know more soon.

think the share price gloom is a tad overdone here, but may be wrong. All that said, many thanks for sharing that piece, Fangorn2. Appreciated!

[fangorn2] 03/10/2017 17:18

Marston's: Where Dividend Payments Are Prioritized Over Financial Health




"Interesting assessment, albeit not very optimistic on the dividend front"

[skinny] 02/10/2017 10:11

Trading Statement - 10th October 2017.