I have never encouraged anyone to sell or buy - its their decision. |
Bought a few thousand Marstons shares a while ago. It's sometime in November they issue hotel discount vouchers for the following twelve months? |
Thank you for conceding fenners that the shares have hardly moved since the budget was announced, contrary to what you previously suggested. Re share price - the shares are circa 50% up on the 52 week low (where you encouraged people to sell) and around 17% down from the 52 week high (where you encouraged people to buy). No one suggesting everything is rosy, but investment is about valuation, not just repeating consensual stories |
Share price lower = KY bought in |
Actually share price is lower now than its been for a month - the same time frame that rumours about the budget have been circulating.
Once the full impact of the budget sank in the shares resumed falling
You have referred to the rise over the past couple of months - but not referred to the 17.6% fall over the last 4 weeks never mind its all rosy ... |
"You deny its anything to do with the budget.." Yes because the shares are at the same level now as they were in the hours immediately before the budget. There has been no impact worth mentioning so far.. "£25bn doesn't arrive out of thin air" - never claimed it did and I'm sure Marstons will contribute, probably not the full £25bn though.. Yes - for perspective the £50m FCF expectation covers your guesstimated wage impact more than 6-8 times over.. The company stated at the interims (last announcement) that they expect the £6m deficit payment to cease end 2024. Yes - that £6m expectation is far more concrete than your wage guesstimate (posters may recall your last guesstimate relating to fcf this year)... ATB |
Ask KY boi why he invested in Mars
I am really curious 😂😂😂😂8514; |
So wigwammer you claimed that the shares fell 31st because global markets were down , so clearly as global markets were strongly up yesterday that explains why Marstons rose too. Oh hang on Marstons were down again...
You deny its anything to do with the budget whilst the employers in the UK are digesting the long-term impact and preparing to halt hiring or reduce staff numbers .
£25bn just arrives at the treasury from thin air does it ? |
And that £6m guesstimate is entirely offset by the fall out of the pension top up which ends this year. A concrete detail yet repeatedly ignored.. Are Marstons likely to be sidelined by industry wide wage cost increases? Given they are targeting £50m+ fcf pa, seems far more likely they consolidate their position as weaker players (again) fall by the wayside. Sub 0.5x book looks good value. GLA |
wigwammer - highlighting the increase in NLW is omitting the vast majority of the wage cost rise (I would hope you well know that , as being misleading is one thing , being totally ignorant and unable to process the real cost implications is something else).
So just in case you cannot comprehend the detail - its the lowering of the Ers NIC threshold by £4100 and increasing NICs at the same time that will affect almost all of the Marston's employees.
Anyone earning 9100 a year will cost an extra £615
Those part time workers on NLW and below will now go into the Ers Calculation for the first time.
Reviewing the 2023 accounts it is possible to work out based on their notes that about 10% of the workforce were on NLW their cost will once again be likely c £2m+
But the NI impact across the piece will impact the other 90% this time and that will likely be over £6m
So combined about £8m per annum - which was about 25% of the underlying 2023 profit. |
Where is KY 😂😂😂
How’s Mars doing KY? |
Marstons is evidently better placed than all the boarded up competition/capacity that has been removed from the market in recent years. They cater to a different demographic. The latest rise in the living wage is the lowest in the last 3 years, with the previous two years being close to 10%, versus this years 6.7%. Despite the material increase in wage costs, most posters here (fenners included) believe the company will post meaningful free cash flow from ops this year... So we have had three years of material wage increases, but the company is expected to generate nice free cash flow. Hmmm - I wonder how that happened.. |
You think Marstons are "better placed to absorb such cost increases" better placed than what exactly.
For every employee that earns 9100 or more the company will have to "absorb" as you put it at least £615 p.a.
Where those employees were on NLW for 40 hours a week they will now have to absorb £2800 p.a
Where they employed 18-20 yr olds say only on 20 hours a week they will have to absorb
£2357 on just those 20 hrs a week.
The ONS tells us that "The lowest-earning employees tend to be younger, aged between 16 and 21 years, and in elementary occupations (including bar staff, cleaners among others) or the hospitality industry"
The problem for the hospitality industry is its all discretionary spend and people can choose to go the pub less. |
Thank you for conceding that it is very difficult to accurately forecast the impact of rises in min wage on the cost line, and that you have repeatedly ignored more tangible positives such as the £6m fall out of pension payments... Believe it or not, the minimum wage has been materially rising for many years and Marstons has been employing people on minimum wage across that whole time. But if you are a premium operator selling to a wealthier and older demographic - in a market where large parts of the competition have been removed, - then you are better placed to absorb such cost increases. Not sure what world you are from, but you evidently have a grudge against Marstons, and/or have difficulty seeing beyond a very consensual narrative. |
You don't think the pub and hospitality industry employees lots of people on minimum wage or teenagers.
You are in cloud cuckoo land. |
Fenners the shares are about where they were yesterday morning. And global markets are down. Nothing rose tinted about my world, just that I understand valuation matters, not just repeating consensual stories |
Why KY why KY???? |
Why KY why KY???? |
wigwammer and todays share price move is completely unrelated to yesterdays budget ....in your rose tinted world ? |
Oh KY where are you ? 😂😂😂
Meanwhile over at SFOR
Like I say do the opposite of KY and you will do well |
And where is any mention of the cigarette ban, or lack of? ... sooo agnostic... lol :) |
From the link in post 7645 :-
"Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced a 40% relief on business rates for the retail, hospitality and leisure industry in 2025/26, up to a cap of £110,000 per business.
In her Budget statement today (30 October), Reeves justified the move by saying that the previous government had “created a cliff edge next year as temporary reliefs end”.
Retail properties have enjoyed business rates relief since 2020, currently benefiting from a 75% discount capped at £110,000 per business. This is due to expire in April 2025.
However, the move from a 75% discount to 40% still means that many businesses will see their business rates nearly double." |
As always, all you are doing is highlighting the "agnostic numbers" and newsflow that suit your preconceived bearish opinion. And if it is anything like last time it will be inaccurate gibberish. Given that we have little detail on what proportion of wage costs relate to NLW, it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions... But for those who prefer more tangible "agnostic numbers" - the £6m pa cash outflows relating to the pension shortfall will end this year. Thats a material sum, but not one getting much air time from our agnostic bear friends... GLA :) |
>careful
31 Oct '24 - 08:21 - 7643 of 7651
odd that Reeves claimed she was helping the hospitality sector then says 110,000 per business.
That is peanuts for spoons and mars.
Have we misunderstood?
What if Marstons set up each pub as a seperate Ltd company ?
Its too obvious - but since the idiots that write tax legislation always leave loopholes is it possible to do
and gain the relief ? |
I guess its going to hurt McDonalds and student union bars... |
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