Marks And Spencer Share Discussion Threads

[debsdowner] 07/8/2022 13:55

shesize,

You are correct we have been warning of a recession for months yet this is the first time the BOE has warned of a recession and even they admit it will be quite prolonged and last all next year, this is why retailers are struggling.

On other news NEXT is in talks to take a stake in Joules but it may not come off at this price and could mean considerable dilution for Joules at this price



But back to MARKS and other retailers for that matter I don't think the market has fully digested the impact a prolonged recession will have on sales and profits, tens of millions of Brits are struggling now depsite things getting worse.

[xxxxxy] 07/8/2022 08:22

Seven out of ten are NOT spending less on food and essentialsHow the people of Brexit Britain are responding to the 'cost of living crisis'Montage © Facts4EU.Org 2022From official data Facts4EU.Org presents an alternative analysis to that of the BBC and BoEIn the last 48 hours the doom 'n' gloom merchants in the Establishment have gone into overdrive. The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, gave a press conference on Thursday where he did his level best to talk Brexit Britain into a prolonged recession.Then yesterday he followed this up, telling the BBC's Today programme:"We've had a domestic shock, we've had a shrinkage in the labour force over the last two years or so."Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, 05 Aug 2022Er... Governor... May we quote the ONS's latest employment report at you?The following was published by the Office for National Statistics on 19 July (2022)."Following an increase in the employment rate since early 2012, the rate decreased from the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there has been an increase since the end of 2020. The number of full-time employees increased during the latest three-month period to a record high."Next we turn to the BBC – never slow to talk us all downYesterday the Office for National Statistics released its latest 'Public Opinions and Social Trends Survey'. In a side report they focused on our spending habits and the 'cost of living crisis'.Here is the BBC's headline :-"Cost of living: Over a third cut back on essentials"And here is Facts4EU.Org's :-"Cost of living: Seven out of ten are NOT spending less on food and essentials"Below we present some of the data from the ONS survey. The ONS and the BBC chose to emphasise the percentages of those who HAVE changed their spending habits in each category. Our analysis does two things:We have adjusted the percentages for the whole population surveyed, rather than only for those who said they had reduced spendingWe have shown the percentages of those who have NOT changed their spending habits, rather than those who haveBREXIT FACTS4EU.ORG SUMMARYData from ONS survey released Fri 05 Aug 2022NOT using credit more than usual, for example, credit cards, loans or overdrafts : 89%NOT using my savings : 80%NOT spending less on food shopping and essentials : 69%NOT shopping around more : 68%NOT cutting back on non-essential journeys in my vehicle : 63%NOT using less fuel such as gas or electricity in my home : 55%

[debsdowner] 06/8/2022 13:12

darrin, well you may well have a better handle on BooHoo than I do, I appreciate they have bought some good brands, I have taken what I said from one of the press articles a month or two back that is all.

As to the under 25s I am not sure whether they are all in full time work but maybe the company has done some marketing to back that up.

I just get the feelng looking at the company it is more at risk than MARKS, MKS is supported by good food to the midlde class and more wealthy.

In the meantime there is a warning from the MAIL many households will soar £6,000 .

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 13:27

Debs, It is lazy to say Boohoo sell to the working class. I have pointed out before on this board that Boohoo own the brands Karen Millen, Coast, Oasis, Warehouse, Burton, Wallis, Dorothy Perkins and Debenhams.

Boohoo's original brands are targeted at under 25's who on the whole are not paying energy bills or mortgages. They are in full employment earning very good wages historically.

Boohoo problems were ESG, international distribution that relied on cheap flights pre covid, higher return rates as they have gone upmarket and a large short position (8%).

Boohoo have been very profitable until recently, tripled turnover in the last 5 years and are building infrastructure capacity to double again.

[debsdowner] 05/8/2022 13:21

MARKS bearing up slightly down but NEXT down circa 3% market concerned that sales will fall in NEXT in due course.

[debsdowner] 05/8/2022 11:50

Hi darrin,

It isn't just me it was one of the brokers who mentioned the lower class will be hurt the most so because BooHoo and ASOS provide mainly lower to working class they will suffer the most which I agree.

However MARKS customers tend to be reasonably better of middle class. Now I am not saying MARKS won't be hurt, one of their own brokers warned MARKS profits could be wiped out but they are doing all the right things now with third party tie ups and new brands such as Jaeger and their food is still doing well.

BooHoo looks at risk imo they are making small margins and if customers stop spending they are heading for trouble.

I don't think people realize how bad things are going to get at the moment jobs could be at risk as many businesses will go under.

[philanderer] 05/8/2022 11:46

"Shopper footfall stalls amid record temperatures and cost-of-living pressure"

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 11:07

Debs. Why do you think "ASOS and BooHoo will fare the worst"

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 11:02

Debs, I did not misread, you did not write what you were thinking.;-)
"allowing the £ to fall which has increased imports." should have read "allowing the £ to fall which has increased the costs of imports."


UK inflation was 0.7% in March 2021 and 2% in July 2021. I don't think raising interest rates earlier or higher would have made made much difference.

I'm expecting input inflation to go negative next year, except for energy which depends upon Putin. However I expect wage inflation to have a long tail through 2023 and beyond. The correct response for the BoE then will be to continue to raise interest rates.

Home owners with a fixed mortgage paying 1.7% 2 years ago or 1.9% 5 years ago will already be paying double the repayment rates when they renew this month and those increases are only going to get worse.
The squeeze on those who have bought in the last 10 years or increased their mortgage to fund a lifestyle will be significant and a surprise to a generation who has not known a time of normal interest rates.
As the majority of mortgages are fixed then higher interest rates will take longer to filter through but equally the effect will last longer if homeowners fix again.
Wage inflation will remain high until unemployment increases unfortunately.

[debsdowner] 05/8/2022 10:30

NEXT boss Lord Wolfson warns tax cuts won't fix the economic crisis, on of the problems on inflation he intimatees is supply issues and lack of skilled workers and foods rotting in the fields.



However he seems to have missed some points in particular the supply issues will ease as consumer spend decreases which in turn will decreaae cost of some goods and services.

The BOE own forecasts show an increase in unemployment will will slow wage rises which have pushed up costs to business.

As unemployment rises food won't rot in fields there should be an ample supply of labour if they are set to work in the fields.

Things don't always work out like this however no one has the perfect answer.

Lets hope we don't see the worst case scenario but I think it will be difficult for most retailers the discounters like ASOS and BooHoo will fare the worst imo.

[debsdowner] 05/8/2022 09:55

darrin,

""allowing the £ to fall which has increased imports."

You misread my point, but I should have clarified. If the £ falls our import cost increases. We can export cheaper but our imported goods are dearer with a caveat it all depends where our goods come from.

MARKS no longer manufactures in the UK unfortunately.

Retail Gazettte:



The Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the impact of the cost-of-living crisis would disproportionately affect the poorest households.

“It will get worse precisely, I’m afraid, for those who are least well-off in society,” he said.

“So, while I have huge sympathy and huge understanding for those who are struggling most with this – and I know that they will feel: ‘Well, why have you raised interest rates today?

“Doesn’t that make it worse from that perspective in terms of consumption?’ – I’m afraid my answer to that is: it doesn’t because I’m afraid the alternative is even worse in terms of persistent inflation.”

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 09:49

Current inflation is due to international factors.
Higher interest rates earlier may have led to a slightly stronger £ which would have made slightly cheaper imports in comparison.
US has had the strongest currency and their inflation is only 0.3% lower than the UK's

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 09:37

"allowing the £ to fall which has increased imports."

Falling £ should lead to falling imports and rising exports. The costs of imports increase and the costs of exports fall.

[darrin1471] 05/8/2022 09:30

Lies damn lies and statistics. Read the figures carefully.

North south footfall figures are YoY and not pre covid comparisons.
" with a gain in footfall from 2021 of +8.9% in the North and Yorkshire compared to a +27.4% gain in Greater London"
Earlier in the article they were quoting pre covid figure.
"Footfall across retail destinations in Britain worsened month to 14.2% below the 2019 level"

Bad journalism. Taking selective statistics to create a story that does not exist.

[debsdowner] 05/8/2022 09:26

BOE defends it's reason on raising interesst rates



Whatever they say a recession could have been predicted months and months ago, I and other posters warned of this but this is the first time the BOE has uttered the words. They were too late to raise interest rates allowing the £ to fall which has increased imports.

Listening to Liz Truss last night stating she would be cutting tax this will not help the average low paid worker who doesn't pay tax.

Now people are having to live with sky high food inflation, sky high energy costs, and now higher interest on loans, cards and mortgages.

This is really bad news for the poor the average working class and pensioners.

[philanderer] 05/8/2022 00:42

Ocado shares rose 3.1 per cent, or 27.8p, to 940p and are up almost 20 per cent over the last week since the company announced changes to the executive responsibilities of board member Mark Richardson.

Richardson, the chief operating officer, will be chief executive of Ocado’s new business, which will extend the warehouse technology pioneer’s offering into new market sectors alongside grocery.

The strategic shift has prompted some market commentators to speculate that the company would be open to selling its 50 per cent stake in its retail joint venture with Marks & Spencer (up 1.5 per cent, or 2p, to 139.3p) should M&S be interested in taking full control.

[debsdowner] 04/8/2022 15:48

MPC forecasting a recession worse than the Great Recession - they say it will cause huge rise in unempt with a big risk of deflation as CPI collapses.

MARKS share price has been treading water for weeks with no real direction, it is doing all the right things with third party tie ups etc but at the same time brokers downgrades.

MARKS outlook not easy to predict at the moment the market is giving no real signs on the share price front. If the markets take a hit MARKS could well follow but they haven't reacted much since the BOE rate decission today.

[debsdowner] 04/8/2022 15:17

darrin,

NEXT upgrade of £10 million looks great on the one hand becuause the company presumbaly can predict profits for accounting period but it comes with a warning of cost to living crisis for sales ahead so one can take the upgrade with a pinch of salt at the moment. NEXT is well run however by Lord Wolfson and they do tend to do better than forecasts. I don't think however people realize how bad things are going to get, this is the first time the BOE has stated clearly we are heading for a recession and they cannot do much about it. The BOE needs to reduce inflation and the tools are to raise rates but that will harm the economy.

[philanderer] 04/8/2022 15:14

Good report from NXT.

[debsdowner] 04/8/2022 15:12

Footfall shows North South divide with footfall still in double digits below pre-pandemic



Footfall expected to fall in August.

[darrin1471] 04/8/2022 14:21

"On a three-year comparison, Next online sales are 44.4% higher while store sales are up 4.7%."

"with fewer customers coming to stores for its Sale during the heatwave"

from above link

[debsdowner] 04/8/2022 14:05

NEXT increases it's profit guidance £10 million to £860 million as it was able to sell more merchandise at full price but warned that less people bought SALE items during the hot weather. NEXT warned however that later in the year they expect cost of living crisis to have an effect: