March Networks Share Discussion Threads

[mitzis] 04/11/2005 20:46

I go along with EJ but my forecast is £15 to £18 a share in 2 years time.I could be wrong of course..!

Good finish Tor at $22.

[rogerl] 04/11/2005 18:57

In post No.57 on this site I forecast 1000p in 18 months, I am happy to say I was totally wrong. At this rate I could be out by a factor of 5!

[mitzis] 04/11/2005 17:03

Quite a good day... at $21.50 over there.

[milesy] 04/11/2005 15:54

Interesting background article on DVRs and IP surveillance here:



"Dispelling the Top 10 Myths of IP Surveillance: Myth No. 8
Myth #8: DVRs are the latest and greatest in CCTV technology

Fredrik Nilsson
SecurityInfoWatch.com

With little fanfare or notice, it's become a digital world. Many of the products we use every day - from cars, microwaves and music players - incorporate digital technology. In the world of security, this shift is also taking place. However, many security professionals believe that digital video recorder (DVR) technology is the most advanced form of digital technology available in the security industry.

However, stopping with DVR technology for security would be the equivalent of the music industry stopping with the CD player. Just as MP3 players offer more functionality than CD players, DVR technology has limitations when compared to truly digital surveillance systems.

Innovation has continued beyond the DVR, and a viable, cost-effective alternative has emerged in IP surveillance. IP surveillance has all the functionality of a DVR and allows users even more performance benefits. In its simplest form, it is video transferred over IP infrastructure - a surveillance concept that is fully digital.

The Digitization of CCTV Technology

Over the past few years, digital technology has become more and more integrated into CCTV systems. DVRs now constitute 80 percent of new CCTV systems. While it is true that DVRs improve upon solely analog systems by adding a digital element, they do not represent an all-digital network technology. End users have started to realize this and some security professionals recognize that DVRs represent just one more step in the digital evolution of surveillance systems.

The DVR is actually a hybrid technology - it is part digital and part analog. DVR systems incorporate digital technology, but maintain the use of coaxial cables. This creates a system where an image is sent over analog cabling, digitized at the DVR, and then presented at a designated viewing station. This processing of the images causes a loss in quality and slows performance. Network cameras and video servers have eliminated this by making the link from the camera to the recorder digitized, using standard computer networks, the Internet, or wireless technologies.

Advantages of IP Surveillance

DVR systems have distinct advantages over a solely analog system, including the elimination of videotapes, consistent recording quality, access to recorded video over IP networks, and more efficient searches for recorded events. However, IP surveillance systems offer all of these same advantages and more:

Scalability - IP surveillance allows users to scale the system from one camera to thousands of cameras in individual increments. In comparison, DVRs usually require users to increase in 16-channel jumps, even if only one additional camera is actually added to the network. This makes IP surveillance a better choice for installations that may need to ramp up in size. For example, the Sooper Stop convenience store in West Fargo, N.D., installed just four network cameras to secure its facility while the New York State Unified Court System installed more than 300 network cameras.

Intelligence at camera level - In DVR systems, most of the "action" takes place within the DVR, including compression, recording and video management. This creates a shortage of computing power and makes it difficult to run intelligent video applications. However, fully digital systems decentralize applications by pushing intelligence out to the camera level, much as PCs did with mainframe computing. Built-in event handling, sensor input, relay output, video motion detection, time and date, and other capabilities allow network cameras to make decisions on when to send alarms and to whom, when to send video, and even at what frame rate or resolution to send the video.

Cost-efficient infrastructure - Most facilities are already wired with networking cables, so no additional wiring is required with IP surveillance. CCTV systems require separate wiring, which can be a major expense. The computer network is also used for applications such as data and voice, so IP surveillance can be easily integrated and managed along with other systems. As an additional bonus, some network cameras offer a Power over Ethernet (PoE) option, which allows users to power cameras through the network and eliminate the wiring needed for electrical outlets.

These benefits are particularly important for facilities that need to be cost-conscious. For example, the Eastchester Union Free School District in Westchester, N.Y. was able to set up a network video system using the infrastructure and extra bandwidth from its voice over IP (VoIP) network.

"By piggybacking the video network onto the voice network, we were able to save significant amounts of time and money," explains Anita Better, the school district's director of information technology. "The network cameras are so bandwidth efficient that the video does not slow down or degrade the voice network."

Image quality - Image quality is clearly one of the most important features of any camera, if not the most important. Using progressive scan and megapixel resolution, network camera technology has recently surpassed the image quality of analog cameras, allowing users to more closely follow details and changes in images. This is particularly important with rapidly moving objects, where interlacing problems with analog cameras cause objects to blur.

Two-way audio - Besides being able to observe events from any computer via the Internet, there are also products that enable two-way audio communication over networks. This allows users to integrate audio with their IP surveillance systems so that they can hear and speak through the network. With both visual and audio communication, users can observe, hear and question intruders.

Equipment upgrades and replacements - IP surveillance is based on open networking standards, not proprietary equipment like DVRs. This means that standard IT server and storage architecture from any vendor can be used, which reduces wait times and simplifies upgrades and replacements. By comparison, DVRs are difficult to upgrade because it requires replacing proprietary digitizer boards.

Contrary to some popular opinions, the DVR is not an end-point solution, but rather one advance in the continuing development of CCTV technology. As the marketplace assesses DVRs more carefully, it is emerging that the DVR provides only a few benefits of digital technology. While this option will work in the short-term, digital systems allow the user much more flexibility and control in the long-term. IP surveillance technology has quickly proven to be superior to DVR technology. There is an enormous difference between the two technologies and the marketplace is only just beginning to understand this critical point.

About the author: As the general manager for Axis Communications, Fredrik Nilsson oversees the company's operations in North America. In this role, he manages all aspects of the business, including sales, marketing, business expansion and finance. He can be reached at [e-mail]."


Chris

[william63] 04/11/2005 15:49

What I like about this company is they are never bullish about what the future holds and therefore tend to exceed 'general' expectations.

[sranmal] 04/11/2005 15:03

Ah, I see Canada has opened, currently C$21.065 = £10.20

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 10:03

Depends on your perspective and risk tolerance for the discount factor. £10-£15 per share looks possible on a two-year view. Still plenty of uncertainty.

[shanksaj] 04/11/2005 09:56

Can someone have a go at estimating fair value please. Thanks.

[milesy] 04/11/2005 09:53

Just to note that as Wesley Clover is Sir Terry's investment vehicle they may well have no plans to dispose of any holdings when lock-in period expires.

Chris

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 09:52

Thanks! Notice a market maker has sold 3,000 shares, presumably in a desperate bid to encourage others!

[sranmal] 04/11/2005 09:38

EJ - the recent Unwins contract win was featured in the May-July 2005 copy of MNW's magazine as a pilot study (with indeed Bell Security). If one scrutinsed the subsequent issues in more detail, one could probably have a guess at further contract wins if they featured similar pilot studies.

[sranmal] 04/11/2005 09:34

Wesley Clover shares are locked-in for 1 year, and as stated In addition, other shareholders of the Company, holding in the aggregate 3,977,459 outstanding common shares, have agreed to not sell their respective common shares for a period of 180 days following the closing of the offering.

So, 4,647,973 held by Wesley Clover free on 27 April 2006, 3,977,459 more came out of lock-in on 24 Oct, so nothing to worry about!

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 09:27

Hard to guess the momentum in that respect; implicitly from today's announcement there are plenty of wins the company hasn't boasted on RNS. Looks good though.

[mitzis] 04/11/2005 09:22

I was expecting some news on further contract wins sometime this week as suggested in the Express last week but nevermind todays news is more than enough.

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 09:13

Nope, Citywire is focusing on IFA content. I'm focusing on making money!

There was a quip higher up this thread about when the stock lock-up expires soon, I don't have the prospectus to hand but cannot imagine it is less than 12 months.

March is going to be a really interesting case study of whether genuine growth stocks enjoy a premium for scarcity in a low growth environment, versus the risk of paying a high p/e! But on current earnings momentum it can hardly be described as stretched.

[sranmal] 04/11/2005 09:00

Just bought back in, certainly is illiquid!

Latest issue of MNW magazine here:


EJ - perhaps that says as much about the PI that holds those Companies than the Company itself! Presume you'll be providing an update article on Citywire in due course :-)

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 08:56

Amazing how much energy and attention is given to cr*p companies on these threads, then here's one delivering a sweet spot of genuine growth - yet by comparison the discussion is a deathly hush!

Illiquidity doesn't help though.

[lordcoco] 04/11/2005 08:37

I can trade over the phone but apparently I cant fund my account over the phone!!

[edmondj] 04/11/2005 08:36

Looks a conservative target!

[mitzis] 04/11/2005 08:34

Your just have to use the phone lordcoco before they reach 1000p a share.!

[lordcoco] 04/11/2005 08:31

I'm both livid and very happy with the update. Livid because my online trading account has an internal error which wont let me trade or fund my account, had I been able to buy first thing, when i wanted, that trade would already be in profit!

[mitzis] 04/11/2005 08:13

Blyme they have doubled earnings in one quarter what an achievment..

[sranmal] 04/11/2005 08:09

Diluted EPS for the quater of C$0.27. Compare that to Evo's forecast of 63.1c for the whole year! The word "smashed" comes to mind, shame I haven't bought back in! I remember when the thread first started, some of us came up with FY EPS numbers a lot higher than the brokers (circa 70-80p EPS) based on maintaining the same rate of sequential growth, probably won't be that high but looks very promising.

Current H1 EPS is 44c compared to Evo's FY estimate of 63c.

[lordcoco] 04/11/2005 07:52

Take a look!