Ly Emu Small Discussion Threads

[dreggspicker] 11/4/2011 07:17

I can't see them putting a coal mine in with the fluorspar club, suits ........but you never know of course .....

[suits you] 10/4/2011 21:16

Looks like Firebird taking control of Berkh Uul, where Davidoff is already on the board. Another one to join the club ?



Berkh Uul was traded for 53.09 percent of outstanding shares in last 2 days
(BDSec) – On 01st of April, total of 1.20 billion MNT worth of 31 stocks traded on Mongolian Stock Exchange.

The most valued stocks were Berkh Uul /BEU-coal mining/ 1.09 billion MNT, Baganuur /BAN-coal mining/ 28.52 million MNT, Sharyn gol /SHG-coal mining/ 21.39 billion MNT, Khukh gan /HGN-iron industry/ 11.81 million MNT and APU /APU-beverage/ 11.50 million MNT.

31 joint stock companies' shares traded actively through MSE were Berkh Uul /BEU-coal mining/ 2,805,705, Khukh gan /HGN-iron industry/ 125,130, Remicon /RMC-mud/ 25,084, State department store /UID-trade, rental service/ 11,590 and Hermes center /HRM-trade, rental service/ 10,200.

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Firebird acquires over 50% of shares in Berkh-Uul JSC
Firebird Mongolia Fund purchased 1,865,993 shares of Berkh Uul JSC (MSE: BEU) from Petrovis LLC, bringing the total ownership by Firebird over 50%. Berkh Uul JSC is a diversified mining company, with fluorspar, coal, and gold mineral properties. Firebird has made a number of large investments in fluorspar mining companies in countries including South Africa, Kenya, and Canada. Fluorspar is a strategic mineral used as a flux in metallurgic processes and is also used in Fluor chemical operations.

[suits you] 01/4/2011 06:49

No worries, just wanted to clarify the position. The EGM and vote is also a normal part of AIM rules and as you say the outcome is just formality. Firebird and Board members have so many shares and cannot be out voted. Just a rubber stamp job but non the less has to be done to comply with rules.

Presume rest of Sallies shareholders will be offered MMS ( or the new Co's )paper. Am sure this has a better chance than previous Firebird offer as shareholders will in effect still have their holding in Sallies with the added bonus of the all the other assets.

I would speculate that MMS or ( new Co name ) could become a holding Co, just as Sallies is now, Witkop and Buffalo are seperate Co's within Sallies structure.

[dreggspicker] 31/3/2011 21:38

looking back at my post before the last one, it is abit ambiguous, I really meant it looks like maghreb is going to let us vote on the takeovers etc which is of course a formality......... I was not thinking of the Sallies holders......

[dreggspicker] 31/3/2011 21:30

suits, yes I know they really need to get to the 90% to get there and I recon they think they are near to that or they would not have mentioned it imo.
Even if they did not quite get there I don't think it will stop them with the ongoing operations, it would be just be a pain in the bum.

[suits you] 31/3/2011 21:06

dreggs

Lets be clear about the 'mandatory offer' bit. This comes about due to normal stock market rules related to MMS's 78.3% holding in Sallies after it has acquired Firebird's holding. It does not mean that it is mandatory that it has to be accepted by the remaining shareholders. Remember Firebird tried before and did not succeed.

Once we have 90%, the remaining 10% have no choice and will have to accept the offer.

So we need at least 11.7% to agree so that we can achieve the magic 90%.

Like the statement

"It will place the Company in a strategically powerful position from which to proactively further pursue its stated strategy and acquire additional interests in the international fluorspar industry".

[backmarker] 31/3/2011 14:29

don't forget that the directors took options instead of fees last year. I imagine they will individually expect a reasonable return on them.

[godolphin] 31/3/2011 11:08

Yes rmart - maybe oil shale will be Firebirds new interest!

[godolphin] 31/3/2011 11:07

15-20p maybe higher. I'm sure Firebird will want higher they've invested a lot of time and money in mms.

[rmart] 31/3/2011 11:05

godolphin, If only we had had the same timetable from Tomco !, at least these do what they say.

[borisimo] 31/3/2011 11:03

GD what do you consider a good return?

[godolphin] 31/3/2011 11:00

There's about 22% of Sallies left, so $5m+ needed?. I assume they have to offer cash. Then there's those damn debentures, 10% is a good interest rate in these times so they may be reluctant to sell.
Macquaries probably took the placing on the understanding that there wouldn't be another one at less than their price. So I doubt if mms would want to upset them at this stage.
So sequence of events will be documents, end of suspension, egm, cash raising.
Then later on this year, new assets - eg. more of KFC, maybe the farm next door to Sallies, Mongolian? Not sure about CFI - seems a long way to go with them and finance needed.
Probably need to hold these for at least a year for a good return.

[dreggspicker] 31/3/2011 10:09

I don't think I have seen in black & white about the mandatory buy out of the minority shares in Sallies before though. Subject to our vote of course!! (I will be voting for it) ;#}

[godolphin] 31/3/2011 08:38

Half yearly report out. Nothing much that is new. They'll be starting drilling at Bou Jabeur next month and Fej Lahdoum later. No mention of Zriba.

[dreggspicker] 31/3/2011 07:22

scoping results at TYM this morning, it indicates a fluorite grade of around 10% . This is even lower than I expected, they will have to have alot of diesel to get that out even if it is a large deposit.........

[suits you] 30/3/2011 22:06

Some thoughts can be drawn from the deal with African Renaissance,
R85 577 000 ( about £7.8M ) for an interest of 26% in Witkop.

Not quite what it seems as

Witkop will provide financial assistance to ARH amounting to R85 577 000 to enable ARH to effect the payment for the subscription consideration.

However the valuation placed on the deal is interesting to say the least and presume has some actual bearing on a valuation of Witkop by all parties concerned.





All should be become clear with the admission document.

Interims due tomorrow but may be delayed due RTO.

A little of topic MMS but is BEE related. Microsoft just signed a BEE agreement, just some info here on significance.

[godolphin] 30/3/2011 08:39

Difficult to find anything to compare mms with. China Shen Zhou has had some bad publicity lately but despite that their mkt cap is $137m. Sales little more than $12m in 2010. 29k tonnes of fluorite powder produced, and looking for growth there. The big difference being that they are a zinc and copper producer, but that only started in 2010. The share price support is down to potential growth as always.
MMS can easily produce more fluorspar (120k tonnes is Sallies' aim), no copper, but zinc and lead are still there. I'm not suggesting mms will be worth anything like $137m but gives an idea of what can happen when the market gets behind you.

[suits you] 30/3/2011 06:44

BTW the 634,129,513 shares in issue as of 24/12 includes shares issued for $10M placing, of which we have already lent an amount to Sallies.

Any accountants here, how does that work, if we get all of Sallies then in effect, we have made a loan to ourselves.

I could imagine that a new Co name (ex MMS) will be the holding Co for all the assets, with each unit operating separately.

[suits you] 29/3/2011 22:09

If anyone is trying to come up with a broad base valuation, IMO they should start by looking here at the table giving NPR. The table DOES NOT include any Fluorspar value from Zriba, only the in ground resource from Bou Jabeur - Gite.

Whilst I have said many times forget about Zinc & Lead and still do as a far as MMS developing them on their own, however there is a NPV to be had from these assets.

See table on NPV



The Co used 91,033,981 ordinary shares in issue at an exchange rate of £/$ 1.485 on an interest of 90% in the project's net present value.

Base plus 50% share price 24.8 with Zn @ $1,800 and Pb 2,100 per tonne

We now have 634,129,513 ordinary shares in issue with RNS 24 December.



Zinc is now around $2300 and lead $2679, so we are off the scale on the NPV table provided by the Co but we have many more shares in issue. At a very rough guestimate, would think we currently stand at base plus 70-75% or in price roughly 30P but with 6 x more shares in issue. So a division of 30 by 6 would say a rough guide of about 5p NPV from Bou Jabeur. as we stand today suspended.

Now what value can we place on Fluorspar at Zriba ? I have no idea.

The market has continually ignored any value from the Bou Jabeur scoping study. We should see some mention of asset value in the admission document. We have to see what JP and ND have planned for BJ. Sell it, JV it or split it off into a separate Co. You can bet that Passin will eventually want to gain maximum value from the assets.

I continue to speculate that a consolidation will take place with any possible additional placing ( if there is one ) at a post consolidation price.

DYR on Passin, he likes to 'invite' guests to his party. In other words, he is in the driving seat. Read as much as you can about JP, this will give you an insight as to his methods and his achievements.

We are actually acquiring Sallies very cheaply, Firebird accumulated their shares in Sallies very cheaply and is why some shareholders held out last time Firebird tried to take full control. Sallies seems to have been very poorly run by its previous management and perhaps deserves to be snapped up cheaply.

Then of course we will have 20% of KFC.

Synergies and 'critical mass'.

[dreggspicker] 29/3/2011 12:35

I will eat a floppy felt hat if it did go to .5p on the refloat ..............and buy rather alot more.............

[godolphin] 29/3/2011 10:27

The deal with Sallies and KFC were based on those companies when they were not producing. Sallies was trading at around 10c, it did jump to 30c but is now around 16/19c. But given the lack of free stock I'm not sure it gives much of an indication. It was way over 100c when it was active a few years ago. There's about 650m shares in Sallies.
I'm not sure how anyone could suggest .5p, there would be heads rolling at Macquaries and Mr Passin's reputation would be down the toilet.

[backmarker] 29/3/2011 10:14

if I recall correctly, the person looking at all the deals on behalf of the small shareholders has stated that we should be at least no worse off as a result of those deals - well, the one's he has so far pronounced on.

while that may not count for much I would like to think that there would be some upside from all the re-arrangements that would leave us with an share price no lower than it was and hopefully higher.

but it will surely take some careful analysis of the post-deal company to come up with a new valuation, and I would not have thought that was possible just yet while wheels are still in motion.

[dreggspicker] 29/3/2011 07:09

I must say how on earth can we go to 0.5p because of the dilution? Forgive me for saying, but haven't MMS now got two producing assets with the money raised, or hav I been in a dream ???????

[suits you] 29/3/2011 06:24

Borisimo

No point trying to put a value on these yet. We have to see the admission document, many things will influence starting price including any consolidation that may take place, we could something like a 1 for 10. Although there are many shares in issue, Firebird, the Board and others have a big %, so the actual free float of shares is not huge making liquidity an issue. We could through consolidation we could have a start price of say 15p
(just an example ). Any further fund raising could be at post consolidation price. All this is pure speculation and until an admission document is published, we have no idea of knowing.

[borisimo] 28/3/2011 22:50

Posted by infra-penny on iii MMS board,

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Does anyone dare put a value on these when relisted, bearing in mind the capital raising required and the complete transformation of the business?

The completely un-informed range I've got at the moment goes from 0.5p (because of the extent of dilution and uncertainty over revenue flows) and 3.0p (because of the power engineered through the reverse takeover and the value of the raw material.

there must be a more intelligent analysis out there somewhere that could refine this range of potential outcomes....

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Is there any comparison to be drawn with TYM?
They are expecting a JORC statement around the end of March, but as previously noted with the RTO changes we are now a producer, whereas they are not....any one any thoughts?