Luceco Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 27/12/2017 15:47

I still think £1.15 is too high for this right now

[tsmith2] 20/12/2017 13:31

Minuscule vol, decks being cleared

[john09] 20/12/2017 12:57

Here commenceth the slow dribble down to £1 !

[tsmith2] 18/12/2017 17:45

Berenberg 180p BUY some v cautious assumptions

[jimbox1] 18/12/2017 13:36

Twixy and Mammyoko, thanks for responses. That explains, to some extent, the hedging strategy.

[tsmith2] 18/12/2017 10:01

Company now in close period?

[mammyoko] 18/12/2017 09:56

47.1% invoicing in dollars per interims

[twixy] 18/12/2017 09:03

jimbox1 - trade and retail chains will be buying in GBP; almost certainly other UK customers too. China predominantly deals is USD, hence why LUCE have an exposure between CNY & USD.

[tsmith2] 18/12/2017 08:50

When a line of stock becomes available it's being googled up..

[diku] 17/12/2017 23:34

£12...£6...few years time £2...

[elsa7878] 17/12/2017 21:11

I confess to know nothing about either this company or Dialight but have noticed both warning recently. LED lighting is clearly in vogue and I have recently exchanged circa 80 halogen lamps for LED's. My concern is that surely margins are being squeezed. I bought my first LED downlighter bulb for about £12 each and can now buy the equivlent ones for closer to £6. Surely the squeeze on margins will only get worse....I am happy to hear otherwise an appreciate that volumes must be going up...but is it enough to compensate for the reduction in margins?

[jimbox1] 17/12/2017 10:43

I had a lucky escape here, as I was thinking of buying some shares.
Given that the majority of revenue is in the UK, I would have thought that the currency exposure would be between GBP and CNY and not between USD and CNY. That is unless they invoice their UK customers in USD. Does anyone know?

Even after the IPO, the company has high debt, and the tangible net asset backing was only 16p (according to the ADVFN analysis page). I suspect the share price may dip further.

[twixy] 16/12/2017 18:21

Not sure I’d describe the profit warning as ‘major or severe’. As the CEO led the MBO in 2005 I would be very surprised if it transpired that he sold the 2M share knowing about the stock o.g.

I don’t think any long term harm has been done to the business, which is growing rapidly in multiple market sectors so bought at 128P just before the close yesterday.

[diku] 15/12/2017 22:22

Yes credibility & trustworthy is questionable...CEO sells share just few weeks before shares crash...

[nw99] 15/12/2017 17:39

Yes not good

[mammyoko] 15/12/2017 16:44

Should be noted that Hornby only sold 1.2m shares at IPO. Brand only sold 3.8m. So not a story of directors cashing in at the top. Hornby is £30m worse off at the end of the day. Doubt that he either anticipated or will be pleased with that. Brand is down £8m on the day. EPIC sold down from 57% to 24%. They're down the best part of £40m on the day.

Don't believe this will stay here. It may go lower. But fair value, assuming they hit revised eps forecasts from Numis, is closer to 175.

Happy to hold and will fill my boots at 100p if it ever gets there

[john09] 15/12/2017 15:44

Buy at a quid.

[mammyoko] 15/12/2017 15:40

This is a business that's growing its top line by > 20% per annum. No reason to disbelieve Hornby's confirmation that that will continue. Plenty of room to recover from a one-off stock write-down if that is indeed what we are looking at.

Of course, this may be the tip of an iceberg. But this is quite a simple business with a limited number of moving parts so it shouldn't be too difficult to restore growth if copper and the RMB remain stable

[riverman77] 15/12/2017 15:38

To be honest I think a PE some way below 15 is warranted as this company is a lot more cyclical than is being priced by the market. The annual report suggested that the big revenue growth was driven by providing products for UK housebuilders. Cyclical companies such as these tend to be on PE around 12. So I think 100p seems about reasonable based on 8.5 eps.

[tsmith2] 15/12/2017 15:22

I have fair value 190p. so 45% upside. do think seller cleared.could be a v good last hr

[mammyoko] 15/12/2017 15:13

But will eventually settle down at around p/e of 15 x forecast eps of around 10.5 so some upside to around 175 from here (and maybe even more from the bottom).

Barring any further bad news