Luceco Share Discussion Threads

[technowiz] 01/8/2018 14:17

don't beat yourself up twixy this share gets the better of alot of people, me included but not today. you made some profit didn't you? i just sold at a loss 42p+

[twixy] 01/8/2018 13:03

Yes - already looks like I screwed up :-(

[w1ndjammer] 01/8/2018 12:13

looking for more than that, expect 60p

nice volume

WJ.

[twixy] 01/8/2018 11:55

And out for an 18% return - good luck to those still in.

[horndean eagle] 30/7/2018 16:29

They were wrong on the way up when it was 250p. hopefully wrong on the way down. Does amaze me how it got to the levels it did in hindsight. Know someone who met management recently. He said they agreed and admitted they started to believe some of their own hype. They didn't even try and shift a large slug at highs when there was more than enough demand to do so.

[twixy] 30/7/2018 14:33

No doubt time will tell.

[pugugly] 30/7/2018 14:24

Luceco Plc LUCE Numis Hold 34.55 37.00 73.00 40.00 Resumes
House broker reduces target by 33p- That tells how bad it is -
Question - How much should HB's target be reduced to get realistic figure ?

[twixy] 30/7/2018 12:15

It's retail; their expectation is for orders to be fulfilled swiftly when they are dealing with a branded goods company so I'm confident the orders are firm and not a forecast of future demand. Different story for Own Label supply.

[pugugly] 30/7/2018 11:58

Twixy: Order book (imo) very much depends on what is meant - Is it FIRM orders - take or pay - or we think we may need xxyy but not sure and will call of as we need but no guarantee that we will BUY all our indicated quantity.

[twixy] 30/7/2018 11:17

The trade restocking is no surprise, as the big retail chain buyers will not have bought whilst they negotiated the price increases Luce sought to impose, since it presented them with a margin enhancement opportunity. The size of the Q3 order book and confirmation the margins have improved support this, in my view and I bought earlier on this basis.

[mcyi9gl2] 30/7/2018 08:51

Yes largely priced in and explains the fall from 60p over the last few weeks. As ever PI's the last to get the info. Can't believe that they shouldn't have communicated this to the market sooner...

[topvest] 30/7/2018 08:19

Interesting that only down to 33p. Sort of indicates that this was priced in anyway. I’m not brave enough to try and find the bottom and so will watch the chart and any golden cross.

[edmondj] 30/7/2018 08:12

Interesting to watch; one commiserates with holders as on fundamentals it's tricky to know whether to cut losses; whether some institutions are capitulating like they are prone to, near a lower turning point. Time will tell.

[topvest] 30/7/2018 08:10

Well the fact that they didn’t pay a final dividend was the strong signal that things were much worse than they were letting on. Hopefully, EPE are still supportive, but they are going to have to agree something with their bankers one would have thought. An equity fundraise would decimate shareholder value, and probably unlikely unless the bank says no. Think they will survive personally and still watching.

[seans66] 30/7/2018 08:03

Glad I sold out a couple of weeks ago. Sold out at a Significant loss, but things will gets worse before they get better.

[pugugly] 30/7/2018 07:51

1st half diabolical - H1 UK retail sales are consequently nearly 20% lower than last year. Group expects to report close to break-even adjusted operating profit in H1 2018. (imo potentially a small loss)

Quick and dirty take which may be wrong e&oe
Net debt increased from £36.7M to £41M
Profit 2018 was £10M
Profit 1st half 2018 was £6.5M
So profit 2nd half 2018 was by calculation £3.5m
So if breakeven 1st half 2019 and "Group expects to deliver year-on-year adjusted operating profit growth in the second half of 2018" we might with a following tail wind and no more nasties expect to see annual profits in the region of £3.5m-£4M or have I made a mistake as this seems to be well below current market estimates.

Anyone able to advise where I have gone wrong?

If i am right goodness knows what it does to the debt covenants -

[phowdo] 30/7/2018 07:32

If H2 goes pear-shaped, and I suspect it will, they can always play the "Blame it on Brexit" card.

Will the CEO be buying back any of the £5M he dumped before the first profit warning?

[topvest] 30/7/2018 07:25

A really bad H1. Need a good H2 to keep covenants in order I suspect. Still too risky for me at this point, but could be a good buy once H2 improvement secured. Tempted to buy on a golden cross and not before. Going down further today I suspect.

[w1ndjammer] 30/7/2018 07:21

might be worth buying


The Group outlined in April its response to these conditions. This has now been put in place and will deliver increasing benefit in H2. Pricing has been successfully amended to better reflect input costs. Manufacturing costs and general overheads have been reduced. In June, the Group announced the closure of its loss-making US business early in Q3. The Group has hedged at considerably more favourable foreign currency rates in H2 than H1. The Group's Q3 retail order book is over 30% higher than Q2, reflecting an end to destocking in its UK retail business.

As a result, the Group expects to deliver year-on-year adjusted operating profit growth in H2 2018

[ny boy] 29/7/2018 10:26

Credibility bonus points goes to...


john0927 Dec '17 - 15:47 - 158 of 810
0 1 0
I still think £1.15 is too high for this right now

[pugugly] 29/7/2018 10:19

Could we be seeing another warning along the lines of "OK we hedged copper but the spot price has fallen some 30/40 cents per lb since we executed the hedge"?


Also remember Maplin went into admistration in March - Might have been reason for trading update of March 6th but bad debt - if any - possibly not yet quantified by 6th March - OK evenif bad debt quantified possibly difficult to replace turnover.

Thoughts/knowledge?

[pugugly] 29/7/2018 08:38

podgyted - Thanks
Looks like Danske sold down to 3.99% on 22nd April so if still selling next notifcation point should be when they cross 3%


M&G (Prudential) Sold down to 4.74% on 14th May so next notification when below 4%

"In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, Panel of Takeover
and Mergers board (PTM) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days. The company may impose sanctions if disclosure not completed."


So could still be significant volume of disposals (if they are still selling down) before next disclosure.

Interesting that apparently Columbia Threadneedle do not appear to have sold a declareable quantity - They must be sitting on a significant book loss as are all holders.

[topvest] 28/7/2018 07:12

I'm still watching here and would like to add, but I am going to be very disciplined and watch the chart.

Share price is 37p
50 DMA is 53p
200 DMA is 110p.

Doesn't look good from a chart perspective.

Need to wait another 6 months and see what happens, I think. I'm not going to buy until the 50 DMA crosses the 200 DMA.

[podgyted] 27/7/2018 21:33

Page 70 of the annual report gives situation at 31/12/17 and towards the end of April 2018.