Luceco Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 30/7/2018 07:19

Interesting that only down to 33p. Sort of indicates that this was priced in anyway. I’m not brave enough to try and find the bottom and so will watch the chart and any golden cross.

[edmondj] 30/7/2018 07:12

Interesting to watch; one commiserates with holders as on fundamentals it's tricky to know whether to cut losses; whether some institutions are capitulating like they are prone to, near a lower turning point. Time will tell.

[topvest] 30/7/2018 07:10

Well the fact that they didn’t pay a final dividend was the strong signal that things were much worse than they were letting on. Hopefully, EPE are still supportive, but they are going to have to agree something with their bankers one would have thought. An equity fundraise would decimate shareholder value, and probably unlikely unless the bank says no. Think they will survive personally and still watching.

[seans66] 30/7/2018 07:03

Glad I sold out a couple of weeks ago. Sold out at a Significant loss, but things will gets worse before they get better.

[pugugly] 30/7/2018 06:51

1st half diabolical - H1 UK retail sales are consequently nearly 20% lower than last year. Group expects to report close to break-even adjusted operating profit in H1 2018. (imo potentially a small loss)

Quick and dirty take which may be wrong e&oe
Net debt increased from £36.7M to £41M
Profit 2018 was £10M
Profit 1st half 2018 was £6.5M
So profit 2nd half 2018 was by calculation £3.5m
So if breakeven 1st half 2019 and "Group expects to deliver year-on-year adjusted operating profit growth in the second half of 2018" we might with a following tail wind and no more nasties expect to see annual profits in the region of £3.5m-£4M or have I made a mistake as this seems to be well below current market estimates.

Anyone able to advise where I have gone wrong?

If i am right goodness knows what it does to the debt covenants -

[phowdo] 30/7/2018 06:32

If H2 goes pear-shaped, and I suspect it will, they can always play the "Blame it on Brexit" card.

Will the CEO be buying back any of the £5M he dumped before the first profit warning?

[topvest] 30/7/2018 06:25

A really bad H1. Need a good H2 to keep covenants in order I suspect. Still too risky for me at this point, but could be a good buy once H2 improvement secured. Tempted to buy on a golden cross and not before. Going down further today I suspect.

[w1ndjammer] 30/7/2018 06:21

might be worth buying


The Group outlined in April its response to these conditions. This has now been put in place and will deliver increasing benefit in H2. Pricing has been successfully amended to better reflect input costs. Manufacturing costs and general overheads have been reduced. In June, the Group announced the closure of its loss-making US business early in Q3. The Group has hedged at considerably more favourable foreign currency rates in H2 than H1. The Group's Q3 retail order book is over 30% higher than Q2, reflecting an end to destocking in its UK retail business.

As a result, the Group expects to deliver year-on-year adjusted operating profit growth in H2 2018

[ny boy] 29/7/2018 09:26

Credibility bonus points goes to...


john0927 Dec '17 - 15:47 - 158 of 810
0 1 0
I still think £1.15 is too high for this right now

[pugugly] 29/7/2018 09:19

Could we be seeing another warning along the lines of "OK we hedged copper but the spot price has fallen some 30/40 cents per lb since we executed the hedge"?


Also remember Maplin went into admistration in March - Might have been reason for trading update of March 6th but bad debt - if any - possibly not yet quantified by 6th March - OK evenif bad debt quantified possibly difficult to replace turnover.

Thoughts/knowledge?

[pugugly] 29/7/2018 07:38

podgyted - Thanks
Looks like Danske sold down to 3.99% on 22nd April so if still selling next notifcation point should be when they cross 3%


M&G (Prudential) Sold down to 4.74% on 14th May so next notification when below 4%

"In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, Panel of Takeover
and Mergers board (PTM) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days. The company may impose sanctions if disclosure not completed."


So could still be significant volume of disposals (if they are still selling down) before next disclosure.

Interesting that apparently Columbia Threadneedle do not appear to have sold a declareable quantity - They must be sitting on a significant book loss as are all holders.

[topvest] 28/7/2018 06:12

I'm still watching here and would like to add, but I am going to be very disciplined and watch the chart.

Share price is 37p
50 DMA is 53p
200 DMA is 110p.

Doesn't look good from a chart perspective.

Need to wait another 6 months and see what happens, I think. I'm not going to buy until the 50 DMA crosses the 200 DMA.

[podgyted] 27/7/2018 20:33

Page 70 of the annual report gives situation at 31/12/17 and towards the end of April 2018.

[pugugly] 27/7/2018 18:06

Can anyone advise if main market companies are required to list their major shareholders on their website in the same way that AIM companies are so required?
A quick check seems to suggest they are not.

Reason - I have been trying to check who is selling down without having to check all the rns's.

Also thanks to Topvest 1 Jul '18 - 09:46 - 757 of 805 - gut feel suggests to me that F&C Smaller Companies Investment Trust may not be the only institution bailing out to salvage what they can.

On the LED front what seems to have been missed (apart from the fact that every lighting company and their dog are in the market) is that once bought LED's have a VERY VERY VERY long life so the replacement sales could still be a few years away.

[podgyted] 24/7/2018 17:47

Berenburg reduced its TP to 45p on the 19th. Don't know what was said to justify this.

LUCE did a TU on 25 July last year - will they do one this year?

[topvest] 24/7/2018 17:29

I’m watching, but not currently tempted. Too much risk that things have deteriorated further. Need an update first.

[che7win] 24/7/2018 15:41

It's a very poor chart right now, relentless falls.

[torres10] 24/7/2018 15:15

John09Are you finally going to buy here?

[john09] 24/7/2018 12:21

I hadn’t even noticed this had dribbled under my 40p target

[badg] 24/7/2018 11:29

No posts here for some time....Down down we go. Cannot believe we are in the 30's and so quickly after that support at 50 was broken.Any views anyone? Any information from anywhere?

[mcyi9gl2] 13/7/2018 15:05

Will they hit the 2018 guidance they recently provided (i.e sales growth with improving margins)? According to the Market (share price), the answer is a resounding No.If management still believe they can hit it, they should reconfirm it and the share price will improve 50%. If they don't think they can achieve it, they have an obligation to tell us.My point is there is a disconnect between the share price and the most recent guidance provided by management. I suspect, as do others, that there is more bad news out there versus recent guidance. If that turns out to be the case, the question is why haven't we been told sooner rather than later.

[meijiman] 13/7/2018 13:07

This company seems to a be a rotten apple for all sorts of reasons

[phowdo] 13/7/2018 12:51

The trend is clearly down.

[cxs1] 13/7/2018 12:38

Yeh, defo keep watching this one... recall the kinda moves made by the boss to accidentally enrich himself on the cusp of a PW - is that behaviour quantified in an analysis somewhere?

[topvest] 13/7/2018 09:28

Interesting. I'm going to keep watching. More likely than not that some more bad news first.