Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[redbaron10] 02/5/2016 18:27

I replied to your post 'bouleversee' but you will have to read the thread,it hasn't copied here

[bouleversee] 02/5/2016 17:24

redbaron -

"Most investors are quids in here"

Not those like me and my family who have held for many years. Still losing all our original dosh in view of the consolidation.

BTW re your comments on retail a little while ago, apparently the public's borrowings have risen hugely but seems it's all going on credit for car purchase so who should we be buying in that field? Not VW anyway.

[redbaron10] 02/5/2016 16:46

Is anyone brave enough to call a dollar index low here? With no FOMC meeting this month,and US PMI data indicating stagnation,i think the dollar will just drift lower.87-88 is my call in the month.Jim Cramer has repeated his bullish stance on gold on CNBC,highlighting Randgold as a good gold miner play.He didn't mention Lonmin or Platinum in passing.Never mind i'll tweet him.He has big holding in Twitter i believe,so i will try and cheer him up!.His Apple holding in his trust hasn't had a good 2016 either. I'm not shedding any tears mind for an ex-Goldman multi-millionaire.Don't think he's on welfare or food stamps! Plat up again.

[russell250] 02/5/2016 14:37

goldman sachs lost a lot of credibility - remember $200 oil then £20 dollar oil most predictions are either wrong or behind the curve - still move the market!!

[careful] 02/5/2016 13:55

GS are both smart and devious.
Issuing a sell recommendation and putting on a modest short position is the smart thing to do, provided they are taking a huge long position at the same time.
A better entry price is achieved.

They have probably done this in the past.
Often a 'sell' becomes a buy signal and vice versa.

How can gold be shorted when money printing and negative interest rates abound.
Currencies (FIAT), are being trashed.

[redbaron10] 02/5/2016 13:27

Just been reading about Goldman Sachs calling off their 'short',sell position on gold from 15/2/2016. Jeff Currie their commodities 'expert' has now changed his mind! They came out with a fanfare of publicity to make the call,CNBC gave them air-time,now its eat humble pie time.Wonder if Goldman lost any of their, or their clients money? Didn't see any CNBC publicity on Goldman's volte face!

[russell250] 02/5/2016 11:35

plat moving towards 1100 interesting prior t0 16/5 but over 5000 job losses has to keep going up

[redbaron10] 02/5/2016 08:21

No apology required,a robust viewpoint is what this game is all about.Thanks anyway.Q2 results on 16/5 will be very revealing.I'm just relying on the forward guidance from Q1 that pgm production costs are around R10,400 per pgm oz.With the av.4:1 plat:plad split,any pt and pd price increase,with capex savings,means Lonmin is becoming viable.Lost injury time/safety stoppages etc will be important.I'm just enjoying the ride up here.Having experienced the lows of falling share prices,this is a lot more enjoyable.Long may it last!

[elvisrocks] 02/5/2016 07:55

Redbaron, apologies if that previous post came across the wrong way, my peanuts comment was meant in the context of $1bn of Forex not really being significant to SA currency reserves. My wider point is that Lonmin have done an exhaustive business plan on capx and costs but the pt price and xr are uncontrollable and people are posting the significance of the recent pt rise but forgetting the equal offset in the xr so whilst a higher pt price is clearly good news, Lonmin is not yet making money and the share price, for the moment, may have over shot itself.

[redbaron10] 02/5/2016 05:26

I'm not criticising.Elvis is entitled to his opinion.He has personal experience of living in SA,then make an investment case for or against Lonmin.Don't just rubbish something and say it's 'peanuts'. 1bn in a country's total gdp of around 350bn is small i suppose,but that 1bn provides 30k jobs in a country of high unemployment and helps to provide for a whole community.With a country of per capita gdp of $6.6k,well paid mining jobs providing a valuable export for the country,is more than 'peanuts' imho.

[lady01419] 01/5/2016 23:28

Redbaron
Elvis has obviously sold out and is trying to downgrade the share to get in at a lower entry point.

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 22:14

Sorry elvis but what is your point in all this discussion? Are you an investor here? Share price is 188p ,what is your prediction going forward? what does your analysis point too? Is pt price going up or down? Just confused.Are you recommending a 'sell' like Deutsche and Goldman?

[elvisrocks] 01/5/2016 21:46

redbaron, that made me laugh .... Pt provides SA with hard currency. In Lonmin's case $1bn turnover, peanuts.

Whatever that converts to in SA currency reserves and how they get that out of Lonmin's bank account will be peanuts and anything they extract probably goes into Zuma's back pocket. However what Big Ben did say last year were his and other Pt producers attempts to make Pt a reserve currency, like gold and the idea "had legs". He was shoot down on that one too! I lived in SA and left in 2002 when the ZAR/£ XR went from 10-20 in a matter of weeks thanks to George Soros' wheeling and dealing. It fell to low teens for a number of years, now back in the 20s. Uncontrollable indeed!

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 21:27

Around 2011,pt price $1800oz,zar/usd 7-1,lonmin share price £10.Today $1080oz,usd/zar 14.4-1,lmi share price 188p. Make ofthat what you will. How can Ocado justify their share price? IAG make over £1bn in profits last financial year yet share price falls 5% in that time.I've given up trying to understand the vagaries of the market.Most is herding instinct,a few contrarians and those with their own investment theories.Like the big banks over here that weren't allowed to fail,Lonmin was saved last November when the kindest thing would be to put it out of its misery.However pgms are valuable and useful and 80% exist in SA.Mineral resources provide the country with hard currency they desperately need now.I'm prepared to take the chance here that gold and platinum prices will return to the economic crisis levels of 2008.What else am i going to do with savings in the bank? Buy premium bonds or get 1% on deposit? No thanks.The trend is your friend with this share.Most investors are quids in here,the shorters made their money pre the last rights issue.Slate wipe clean(ish) and debt levels+banking covenants agreed.Up the platinum!

[elvisrocks] 01/5/2016 20:34

Chaps, ur avoiding answering my question - there was a 5 Yr Business Plan which covered everything possible on CapX and costs, including taken account of wage increases and inflation. But Pt price and XR always were and always will be un-controllables unless there is hedging, so my point is before we all get too carried away with ourselves and the tumultuous share price rise of the last 3 months, what is better a Plat price of $920 and an USD/ZAR XR in the 16s, or a Plat price of $1080 and an USD/ZAR XR in the 14s?
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I say this as Big Ben I recall at the mining Indaba in Cape Town said something along the lines of "I never thought I would do a jig when the Pt Price was $920 per oz but we are there or thereabouts regarding break even on cash neutral" but that was when the XR was 16.5. He also said "one swallow does not make a summer" meaning they are yet to make money. Remember at end of FY 2015, the PT price was pretty much where are now and costs will not have moved (down) that much by Q1 2016.
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[careful] 01/5/2016 20:05

A cap of todays £530m is still very cheap when compared to other miners.
Kaz(copper) and RRS (gold) for example.

just study the balance sheet and figures for kaz.
how can it be considered to be more valuable then lmi?
crazy.

[careful] 01/5/2016 19:59

some bought in capital expense will be cheaper with a stronger rand.
swings and roundabouts.

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 19:56

With S.African inflation at 6.3% it depends what inflationary pressures affect Lonmin's production costs.The main issue is wage increases agreed previously.Management is cutting costs supposedly,let's see how much progress has been made on 16/5

[elvisrocks] 01/5/2016 19:20

Currently the SA Rand is at a five month high against the USD, I think a few months ago it was around 16-16.5 to the USD. What is better, a Plat price of $920 and an USD/ZAR XR in the 16s, or a Plat price of $1080 and an USD/ZAR XR in the 14s?.

Remember, Lonmin's costs may be in Rands (converted to USD for external reporting) but its revenues are in USD where an average "basket price" will be quoted and the P&L a/c is, in effect, the "basket price" obtained on each transaction as Lonmin do not hedge.

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 18:45

You will not be alone topping up your position on Tuesday.I hope all miners get a tow from Glen.50.1 out of China is a muddling figure,so pt not going to get a boost for its industrial use demand increasing which i was hoping for.However as an investment hedge like gold then pt should trend higher because of dollar weakness.Gold and pt represent the only true real 'currencies' now.I've dallied with Glen without success.I hold a small one(position that is!) in Vedanta as a commodity and India growth play.Patience required.

[russell250] 01/5/2016 17:57

I been weighing up china pmi - weak dollar - strong oil copper - glencore disposals - going increase my position in Glencore Tuesday prior to results

asia may be little softer tonight but commodities resilient at present

[value king] 01/5/2016 13:32

russell250 - spot on with GLEN!

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 12:37

Regulation and ongoing ppi claims are inhibitors to bank profits at the moment.nims dead until we get our own interest rate rises over here.When is normalisation going to start here.Is zero interest rate the new normal? I believe the longer the Fed leaves its next interest rate rise,the more inflation will re-emerge.Commodities, and surprisingly oil,prices continue to strengthen and wage inflation in the US may begin in earnest.If at last we reverse the deflationary spiral then your Barclays call is a good one.However,while the US has growth potential,i fear the Euro zone and the UK have the prospect of a Japanese scenario of lost decades of growth,sadly.Economic reforms are not happening quickly enough,or at all, in the EU.Sclerotic changes mean the eurozone has numerous 'zombie' banks with chronic bad loans on their books still.Barclays US,ok,but the rest of global Barclays.Not sure.Share dirt cheap,granted,but i would prefer a slice of Bob Diamond's Barclays ex-Africa deal.Is Barclays rise to 170p after 150p any more than dead-cat? Don't know.Good luck with it,at least your man put his money where his mouth is as CEO ,and bought.I will watch your Barclays with interest and wish you all the best.

[russell250] 01/5/2016 01:25

I have decent position in Glencore - update Wednesday will go through £2 SOON Herro again been positive re prospects on recent Bloomberg interviews

My holding play through the sell in May season - is Barclays - speed of change under Jes Slaney will increase value - don't forget in November he bought £6m at 233 - I have a disproportionate amount of my wealth in this stock.