Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[redbaron10] 01/5/2016 00:57

p.s. wouldn't cash in Glencore just yet.Dr copper is part of the commodity rally and Glasenburg's ego has had a real knock.He will want vindication.Besides ex BP boss Tony Hayward is onboard,has plenty of oil knowledge,and he bought in very early in the recovery.

[redbaron10] 30/4/2016 22:28

Wise words russell 250,but with your handle you shouldn't be dabbling over here at all.I would think you had your hands full with small cap stocks in the States! Investing over here for some better value eh? Anyway all buyers welcome,sellers you're barred at the moment.Like your style,70k of stock bit out of my comfort zone,but i think it is a value punt.Can't see much downside risk before 16/5,but plenty of upside.What is going to change in 6 weeks for Yellen and the Fed to be raising rates? As you relayed, Q1 US GDP was pants,so now pressure on that front to do anything.Fed well off 2% headline inflation target,although core inflation higher and a green signal to raise is slowly looming there.Unemployment at 5% target so this ticks the box to raise,but like over here,what is the quality and skill level of the jobs created? Low paid and low skilled with importantly a horrendous productivity rate.This is the vital metric that is clobbering any growth in western economies and central banks have no answer to this.Wage inflation is also not a big concern.I think the US presidential race is causing major headaches for the Fed.Historically the Fed has been neutral and mostly inactive in its decision making in election years.Why break the habit of a lifetime when any action they take could play right into Trump's lap? Look at the wobble caused on World markets early this year after the US rate rise in December 2015.The stronger dollar created from the catalyst of the .25% rate rise created havoc amongst the struggling EM currencies.Yellen will not be thanked by her Democratic appointees if she repeats the dose of another rate rise! Anyway,the FOMC meeting is a week before our potential Brexit vote,so even more reason why Yellen will want to avoid criticism.There appears to be no need to rush to raise US rates so why not wait until after the presidential election in November?Happy hunting and good luck.£2.50 seems a realistic,achievable target and a good time to cash in some profits hopefully!

[russell250] 30/4/2016 17:40

I hope your correct re next week run up redbaron - I believe pmi in China will be strong, not so sure re rate rise wait until dec - comments were more hawkish - but if no rise in june / july probably then post election - gdp usa dreadfull last week.
I bought 70k of lonmin over Thursday and Friday - I have done very well on miners since feb - however mainly through glencore -
lonmin I always seem to get nervous - but with platinum short term still rising / hold over 1000 - and cost reductions I will try and hold nerve this time - think £2.50 price target before cash out

[redbaron10] 30/4/2016 15:19

Checked business calendar for next week,start of a new trading month.Chinese manufacturing PMI due this weekend.US PMI data due beginning of May(monday) and Randgold results due Tuesday morning.If all the stars align,or in gambling terms we get a treble,ie good Chinese result over 50 (50.4 forecast),US PMI data weaker than expected(pushing Fed rate rise even more further into the future,hence weak dollar) and Randgold results are good (even though it's gold,it has some relevance to Lonmin as a precious metal commodity), Tuesday could see a big run up in the share price again.Fingers crossed.

[redbaron10] 29/4/2016 22:32

I meant to add GLEN had 25% ownership of LMI.My post reads like they owned it all! Platinum $1080oz,with no prospect of the dollar strengthening anytime soon.No FOMC meeting in May,June meeting a week before our EU referendum vote so the Fed's not going to chuck a spanner into that volatile situation,and then GOP and Democrats have their presidential conventions over the summer so the Fed isn't going to appear to make a political or a perceived political decision around then.This hopefully means there's nothing to prevent the platinum price rising further from here.Luv it.

[redbaron10] 29/4/2016 22:02

Remember May 2015,just one year ago,Glencore literally gave away this company to its existing shareholders ,in the form of shares, to do with as they wished.Most couldn't sell quick enough.Glencore had tried selling this business-nobody wanted to know even though pgm prices were pretty much what they are today.Ok the debt level has been reduced with November's RI money, but Yellen and the Fed have indirectly done Ben and Lonmin a massive favour by holding off on rate increases this year.Pgm prices and gold are predominantly rising because of the weaker dollar. This situation could rapidly reverse if Yellen and the Fed become more hawkish and start raising rates.As i've said before,i don't think the Fed can raise rates until probably December this year.This platinum price rise provides a breathing space for Lonmin to get the new business plan and restructuring bedded in and convince serious investors and institutions that there is a viable business here.Some posts are convinced that platinum and diesels have a future, i'm afraid i am not convinced.I think the VW fallout has years to run and people have lost faith with diesel.If you have a second-hand diesel now,haven't you already lost money? May 16 and Q2 results are crucial.Any excuses or delays in the implimentation of the restructuring plan,or a failure to cut costs as promised ,will have me pressing my'sell' button.I'm fed up of this business over promising and under-delivering.Even today two widows of miners killed at Marikana in 2012 were asking the shareholders at the BASF agm in Germany for millions in compensation for their community.I feel desperately sorry for them but legacy issues like this don't inspire me with much confidence.Lonmin and the SA authorities should have dealt with this.

[careful] 29/4/2016 21:28

sentiment is important.

compare RRS (gold) with LMI (plat etc)

RRS turnover $1200m.est
LMI turnover $1000m. est

RRS CAP £6.63bn
LMI cap £0.53bn

Assets RRS $3.4bn
Assets LMI $2.0bn

the cost of gold is higher that platinum right now, but these numbers are way out of line.
RRS is not worth 12 times LMI.

[careful] 29/4/2016 21:18

lonmin has 5 bagged from its recent lows and multi bagged down from its recent highs. A wild ride.It was not long ago I sold out at £6 under the old share structure.
the cap was many times higher than todays.

A cap of just £530m having just raised £280m in a rights issue seems very modest when the platinum price and palladium prices have improved.

When the results come out in a few weeks we shall know more. forward guidance will be important.

What do you guess the annual profit will be going forward?
Todays share price should reflect the consensus of forward earnings.

[lazyhisnibs] 29/4/2016 18:06

What re-rating do you have in mind?

Lonmin's already five bagged from the low. On the other hand if Google's and other chart software has adjusted efficiently for the corporate actions then looking at the last six months view there is a lot of white space above.

Maybe the question should be about Pt or PGMs.

PS: The Rand continues to recover from its December lows, mostly due to the USD weakening.

[brahmsnliszt] 29/4/2016 17:59

Getting more and more bullish pt longer term which in my view will help the pgm miners of course.Kept a sb on here for a few weeks now, and looking for a breakout above £2

[careful] 29/4/2016 16:27

quite subdued compared to gold shares today.
platinum at $1081,palladium up also, would normally result in a breakout.

maybe we are all waiting for May results for some real data.
if PMG prices hold at this level or higher, a re- rating will be inevitable.

[bigbigdave] 29/4/2016 13:07

Breaking out beyond March highs today.

[redbaron10] 29/4/2016 10:33

Commodity shares not catching a bid today despite the dollar continuing to weaken.Chinese manufacturing PMI data due out over the long weekend,so that could give a turbo boost.

[careful] 29/4/2016 09:51

platinum now $1063/oz, palladium up also.
should be strongly cash flow positive and profitable at these levels.

[lazyhisnibs] 28/4/2016 21:42

Metals prices. A TA take - not mine!!!

Weekly charts so not short term.

Base metals: aluminium, nickel, & copper

Precious metals: pt, silver & gold

Oil price

"Groups"

Base formations and the like.

Optimistic view. Roffey was right about gold before it spiked and the gold proxies re-rated. On the other hand he was wrong for a long time prior to that.

www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/roffeyreview/2016/04/25/the-roffey-review

[redbaron10] 28/4/2016 20:07

yeah,sorry,misread your post.Bit of wishful thinking on my part! Bit difficult being 'careful' in a casino from my experience!

[careful] 28/4/2016 19:49

I said the net assets per share were £4.90.
not the share price.
In the long run the assets are worth what wealth they can generate.

What if the platinum price rose further because of supply/demand and not just currency variations.

What would Amplats pay to get control of Lonmin?
Asset price is just one guide as to the value of this company.

the share price..we are operating in a casino remember.

[redbaron10] 28/4/2016 19:24

Btw like your £4.90 share price, careful.When are we going to get there?Tomorrow?

[redbaron10] 28/4/2016 18:53

Thanks for the feedback.No haven't been clothes shopping,i've been too busy making easy dosh with Lonmin shares! This party can't last forever here,so i need more investment projects.I like shares at 52 week lows,there's more chance of an upside.Before anyone says it,yes i know the shares are at a 52 week low for a reason! Thanks for the comment of the styles being all wrong,and yes i appreciate we are between seasons with clothes.However,i would like to know what people are spending their money on these days if clothes and restaurants are out of favour.Look at the 'Restaurant Group' and Mitchell& Butler share prices! I suspect the introduction of the living wage has had an affect here. But take N.Brown shares.They've fallen out of bed,pricewise,and yet there's a 5% divi payable in July! Doesn't Freddie Flintoff with Jacamo inspire anybody these days!I just get the impression that people spend fortunes on their Apple iphones and do all their shopping online with Amazon or ebay,and that's where their money goes.Am i wrong to assume this? I have done some research and i am narrowing my target down to Supergroup as a good value play.The style is popular at least.

[careful] 28/4/2016 18:25

platinum at $1051/oz right now palladium up strongly. $636/oz
amazing PMG recovery. Platinum below $800/oz a few months ago.

cap of £532m requires a pre tax of just £50m to justify.
assets of about £4.90 per share.

[bouleversee] 28/4/2016 17:57

redbaron -

Have you considered the weather? Would you be rushing to buy summer clothes at the moment? Also, unless things have changed since I last went shopping for clothes, styles are hideous these days and quality poor. I have bought literally nothing for over a year apart from a pair of shoes I had to send back.

[edjge2] 28/4/2016 15:08

cudmore something underlying FTSE 100 that this tracks?
Plat may make 1050 at this rate. Just can't figure this share. This am perhaps momentum investors from yesterday seeing rising plat price and inevitable profit taking. Looks undervalued to me.

[cudmore] 28/4/2016 14:51

Ticking up now. £1.90 will be the next breakout point IMHO

[edjge2] 28/4/2016 13:14

Did a rise from 175 low yestertag, but odd. Maybe FTSE 100 following again, a bad habit not affecting main miners today, valuable or invaluable

[harry_david] 28/4/2016 13:03

I agree careful, not sure why they are not charging ahead today, Anglo certainly are?