Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[umitw] 31/3/2016 09:18

AU is up Plat is up, share price ..?

[careful] 30/3/2016 15:51

the long term view for serious investors will be influenced by the cash flow profit and dividend prospects.Also mergers.

we all agree that a sustained platinum price of over $1000/oz will cause the share price to double.
and there is also the prospect of consolidation within the industry.
just guessing, but Anglo and its stated intension to concentrate on platinum, copper and diamonds speaks volumes for Lonmin.
a merger would make sense, but they would not get LMI for less than 300p per share.
LMI are a very interesting prospect going forward.

In the meantime the traders, short etf's platinum, cfd'S etc will give us a volatile ride, as always.

[umitw] 30/3/2016 15:35

SP seems to be steady!

[redbaron10] 30/3/2016 10:21

Ok nice 13% pop today,but where from here? wait for US non-farm payrolls on Friday for more market moving news related to the dollar? This share and its price is totally tied up with Yellen and her relationship with other FMOC members.She might be the chairperson,but some other members have gone rogue and are singing from a different hymn sheet.Yellen is keen clearly on softening dollar strength to avoid the huge capital outflows from China that caused such disruption last August and in January this year.Her fellow members obviously are more concerned about domestic issues,and want to raise/normalise interest rates a lot faster.Who's going to win this battle of wills? possibly there is jockeying for position post the US presidential election with FOMC members eyeing Yellen's position,but as an investor here,could we just have a little certainty and the Fed and its members being quiet for a while!

[careful] 29/3/2016 22:10

a market cap of £319 is very low.
the rights issue raised over £250m and assets are about £1.4bn.

With platinum prices improving the modest profit that must be required to justify an improved share price should be achieved. (About £30m.)

Unlike some i think that platinum demand may increase.
Diesel is still the best engineering solution, and has not gone away.
Millions of more middle class people world wide will be driving cars.
And palladium is responsible for about 25% of profit. It is used for petrol cars.

We sometimes forget the scale of potential demand. 7 billion World population and growing makes the scale of future demand hard to grasp.

[redbaron10] 29/3/2016 21:43

well hope you two are right.D-day for me tomorrow.Despite it being holiday time and lower trading volumes,i will see what pans out in the morning.Am still sitting on a nice profit,but that is evaporating daily.PGM prices are only reacting depending on dollar strength/weakness which makes this a difficult investment case.PGM fundamentals are detached now.There is limited industrial demand for pt due to diesels being out of favour,and Chinese jewellery/investment demand is lower as the immediate economic crisis over there has subsided.Pt and gold's safe haven status is diminishing as currency volatility has abated.If the Chinese dramatically devalue the yuan,then i'm back in here big time.I am just very surprised that with the ECB and BOJ having negative interest rates that gold and precious metal prices have not reacted more.The big argument against gold/pt is that it provides no yield as an investment,and yet with negative interest rates it makes gold/pt a viable,more cost-effective investment.Apart from hyper-inflation,you couldn't ask for a more favourable scenario for physical gold and platinum investing or through their mines.For some reason,maybe due to ETFs,gold and pgm prices are constrained.

[careful] 29/3/2016 21:00

Platinum up over $20/oz tonight after Yellen speech.
should be a good day tomorrow.

[cudmore] 29/3/2016 20:35

All this needs is one positive RNS and they'll rocket back up. Still lots of buyers sitting on 100% + profit over the past couple of months here so still a lot of happy buyers like myself hanging on.

[redbaron10] 29/3/2016 19:54

To be honest LMI shares could end up in a Poundland shop courtesy of Goldman's sell recommendation.Why a miner with a market cap around £300m would attract their attention i don't know.I would have thought they had bigger fish to fry but hey-ho where there's money to be made then Sachs are sure to follow! I get the distinct impression in this current market that unless you are invested in expensive defensives like Imp,BAT,Unilever,Reckitt,then you are fair game.You have to play pass the parcel with stocks, unless you day trade, and hope the music doesn't stop at the wrong time with you in possession of the wrong shares! I can see no benefits in taking unnecessary risks investing in shares that are volatile and at the mercy of the vagaries of the market now.You are only going to get your fingers burnt.Marketeers have no confidence in holding non-dividend paying shares and everyone is risk-averse.How can you stick with this with any confidence when Yellen and the Fed one week is dovish,then her fellow FOMC members come out and make hawkish comments as they did last week and drive the dollar higher.Then Yellen today is dovish again,the dollar weakens and Platinum soars again today.What is PGMs true price and value? not a clue now

[umitw] 29/3/2016 16:27

So is this going below £1..?Seems like 10% down everyday!

[lazyhisnibs] 24/3/2016 12:48

Hectic moves indeed and presumably the machines had something to do not just with the extremes but en route to them. Too rich for my blood especially with China still slowing down.

In the media:

www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/newsleader/2016/03/23/new-bee-codes-for-financial-sector

New BEE codes up for public debate. Rather opaque with some changes to political phraseology thrown in to the muddle. I can't remember if the employers are pursing the court case around "once empowered always empowered".

Also, a bit of a shocker regarding headline inflation.

[careful] 24/3/2016 10:11

the last few months since the rights issue have been amazing.
down to 36p, up to 192p, back down to 120p.
all in a few weeks on light volume.

i will wait for some real information and results from the company over the next few months.
A cap of £358m ($505m), having recently raised just under $400m in a rights issue is still very cheap for a company with low debt and valuable long term assets.

[granite717] 24/3/2016 08:39

The low volumes could be as a result of the holidays. Past Monday in SA. Tomorrow and the coming Monday are also holidays.

[careful] 24/3/2016 08:11

platinum price falling, share price back to the old volatility on very low volume.
a traders market, investors should look away.

[edjge2] 23/3/2016 14:47

visiting 134 odd, if it holds might revisit but gold cliffed off a drop. 10% habit today!

[careful] 22/3/2016 12:58

with the platinum price at $990/oz, palladium over $600/0z and the pound falling, this has never been more investable in recent times.
This business is looking viable again.

[edjge2] 18/3/2016 18:48

umitw seems held up ok today compared pgms
hxxp://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-falls-1-amid-heavy-profit-taking,-capping-volatile-week-of-trading-390804.
aal more comparable to GLEN imo.

Make the chart by clicking any chart above and alter period to 3 months. the rising curve shows today minor bounce likely 148-150. LMI usually volatile, +10-10% daily, a habit change.It usually moves saw tooth, drops rather than levels. I have been scared out. Can only say plat is far behind gold and 40000 previous price here compared to now. If plat has its day expect this one also.

[umitw] 18/3/2016 14:40

Edjge2, can't see the chart. Do you think this is consolidation period?GLEN had similar trading behaviour. But jumped recently!

[edjge2] 18/3/2016 08:23

3 months chart suggests 148-50 may be bounce point for trend maintenance. Looks like pgms taking a rest. Cannot paste chart here from ADVFN. Chart link below



Anyone can? Live chart would be useful.

[umitw] 18/3/2016 08:09

Volume seems to have dried up here!

[creddy] 17/3/2016 20:22

Both my auto and manual trades failed today at 8am. Up 9% by next live quote at 8.06 so turned off the laptop and went for a 5 hour cycle ride round Richmond park instead. Didn't make any pounds but lost a few pounds round the midriff I think.

[cudmore] 17/3/2016 17:18

Nice 101k buy at the close. Could see these reach a new week high tomorrow imho

[edjge2] 17/3/2016 13:21

yanks put the boot under plat and Ag?
Auto trades failed this am but manuals got me in.
Left it too late yesterday to get all my trades in before 4:30. AAL was a sitter and missed.
Not in LMI's nature to tickle or trickle but hell we don't care as long as it climbs. Am drop looks a wee bit overdone as plat must start catching up along with silver.

[redbaron10] 17/3/2016 13:15

Just like when this hit £1,watch reaction when platinum hits $1000oz and sustains it.Minds will become very concentrated and focused.Might even get some broker upgrades for a change.