Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 11/4/2016 15:23

almost $1000/oz.
a big pop in platinum and palladium today.

[edjge2] 11/4/2016 15:10

Ah, the 10% habit returns!
Is that the yanks on gold time of day?

[careful] 11/4/2016 12:21

platinum up to $981/oz
things look good at $1000/oz +

[redbaron10] 08/4/2016 20:46

Thank you,you make my point a lot more eloquently than i ever possibly could.Nobody in their right mind should invest here without due diligence.Without knowing the history behind this miner,investors should tread very carefully.I think you're right that quite a few investors jumped in head first and are now regretting it.This isn't a share for widows or orphans.You know the risks and you have to tactically increase and lower your holdings depending on your level of risk-taking.May 16 is key.As investors we have favourable tail-winds in the Platinum price increasing from the desperate,uneconomic level of $820 to an average around $950oz for the quarter.Also the Fed is reluctant at the moment to raise rates and make the dollar stronger, which will help the SA economy and the battered rand.Ben has to come out on the Q1 results and be positive about the progress made in the turn-around plan.No ifs,no buts,they have to start delivering.Goldman,Deutsche and other brokers need to see progress being made to change their stance and rating towards LMI,otherwise this is a doomed enterprise.Patience certainly is key for investors,but there has to be a limit to our patience because the RI money wont last forever!

[cudmore] 08/4/2016 19:38

Redbaron10

Well said. Good to see someone with a bit of sense on these BB's. As 'careful' said the next report/results will see these take off IMHO. A hell of a lot of buyers got in at £1.50+ here so are technically sitting on a loss but I believe patience is the key. The day traders were here for their fun over the past couple of months and I'm sure many got stung when it dropped back but I guarantee they will be back pushing this up past the recent high of £1.90+ Again.

[redbaron10] 08/4/2016 18:42

Well if we all had the same opinions about everything it would make for a boring world.It is only my opinion,i don't pretend to be Warren Buffett,so if you think i'm talking moonshine please don't hesitate to criticise.I'm big enough and ugly enough to be told when i'm wrong on my facts.If we agree to differ on the Fed,fine,the ethics and morality of their course of action is not my concern.I'm here to make money as a hobby, full stop.The more input,advice and experience to give me a competitive advantage, i receive from fellow investors,the better.If i choose to accept the advice with reasoned argument backing it up then great.I went on the IAG share chat with this company and explained why i sold my IAG holdings on Monday.'Phyllis' had a pop at me selling.ok that was her opinion,but this weeks events saved me losing a lot of money.This game is about avoiding losses on your investments as well as making sensible investment decisions.Today i had a small position in AAL and did ok.I like to share information on these forums,hoping it will be reciprocated,because knowledge is power in the stock market.Good information helps everyone avoid the pitfalls and sharks that lurk out there!

[careful] 08/4/2016 18:02

We need a production report then year end results.
A few weeks.
Until then we are flying blind.
No information since rights issue.

after some clarity this could be re rated, subject to decent PMG prices.

[lazyhisnibs] 08/4/2016 16:05

Shafts to be put on care and maintenance.

Please would someone remind me of the following:

1) How many in total are to be all but closed, is it six or eight?

2) Have two been closed so far and that done by the end of the 1st quarter 2016?

3) Is the latest schedule to close all six (or whatever) by the end of this year?

4) Has that schedule slipped at least once already or was that always the plan even well back in to last year?

I promised myself I would leave Lonmin well alone until it was clear management would make good on that part of their plan. Hence my continued interest. Of course I risk having to pay more than the current share price if I do get involved for a second time but massively less than I soft stopped out at.

redbaron10,

Thanks for your polite reply. Another time on the Fed as I see things quite differently in at least two ways. And, I can't recall reading that journalist you mention but I don't follow the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC much these days.

[cudmore] 08/4/2016 15:49

Creeping back northwards here!!!

[redbaron10] 08/4/2016 13:36

Thanks for the response.Is your best mate Rick Santelli on CNBC business? He would agree with you 100%.The financial and market manipulation through QE that has occurred in the US and here had the desired effect of flooding the markets with vital liquidity when the credit markets seized up.I think Ben Bernanke did an heroic job in saving the banking system and indebted borrowers from themselves.Savers were sacrificed on the altar of QE and are still paying to this day.Of course Yellen and the Fed want to normalise rates,being at zero for 8 to 9 years is certainly not normal.The move was meant to be temporary,but everyone now assumes we can carry on as we are.The problem is world deflation and low growth.All central banks want to achieve competitiveness by devaluing their currencies.This is the road to ruin.A lot of the world's debts are dollar denominated so as they weaken their currencies their dollar debt interest gets harder to service.Like you i don't hold out much hope going forward,but the lesson from the financial crisis was be invested in gold and precious metals.I am just fascinated by the ebbs and flows in the market,the influencing factors at any one time affecting the share price.How currency flows in and out of EMs has such dramatic consequences.Volatility of the oil price.Look how the yen and euro are rising in value when their central banks have done everything to devalue.Even economists are at a loss to explain it.Anyway,rambling now.Good luck with your investments!

[lazyhisnibs] 08/4/2016 12:25

redbarron10,

I accept your apology. To my mind shorting is for professionals or accomplished trading PIs glued to their monitors all day and I’m neither of those. I admit I have been tempted these past couple of years though and might succumb again one day. (I did do seven short CFD’s about a decade ago which ended well but also stressed me out and were time consuming the way I went about it. Those were in the construction sector which back then I knew something about. Those seven, to date, are my entire and obviously limited experience of real derivative trades.)

Re 35p (give or take 15%). I think it would take a combination of macro and micro shocks to get the share price down through the hordes of potential buyers who wish they had bought back or simply bought for the first time at circa forty or fifty pence let alone at 35, 36, 37p (ish). I don’t see why the psychological level of a pound will hold for long when tested though.

A high dollar / low commodity price (particularly oil) world is a two way street as it were. How an individual sees it will usually be through a prism of self-interest. From my perspective I have a lot tied up in a tidler-cap natural gas explorer which is languishing in private company hell but despite that I would prefer the oil price and other commodities to stay (prima facie) low for at least another three years to give the real economies in producer nations space to grow. They in turn can, to some extent, help to drive the economies of other nations. Has it not been that way for a couple of centuries? What you and I want though is irrelevant as we are so tiny compared to the colossal scale of the market place.

I perceive the antics of Yellen’s FOMC to have been confusing from the get go but also highly manipulative. From your perspective the Fed’s nigh on decade long market meddling habit is probably wonderful but it’s gone too far for too long and the excesses will eventually catch up with certain asset types. Here I’m not thinking in terms of recessionary lower lows in say housing but it could be horrendous for equities many (if not most) of which are addicted to Fed speed.

Out of interest Lonmin gets a mention in the ‘STOCK WATCH’ shows for yesterday and the day before. The files posted to businessdaytv.co.za today are for yesterday’s show and Lonmin is discussed at the end of part 1.

Go forth and prosper but without intolerance of others ways or views especially as you cannot know where they're coming from.

------------------ Article -------------

(A serial pessimist perhaps but his views and those of the people he quotes are as valid as ours.)




EXTRACTS from the above follow:

Wall Street equities are more stretched by a host of measures than they were at the peak of sub-prime bubble just before the Lehman crisis. All it will take to bring the S&P 500 index back to earth is a catalyst, and that is exactly what is coming into view on the macro-economic horizon.

Didier Saint-Georges, from fund manager Carmignac, says the “massive and indiscriminate equity market rally” since February’s panic-lows is a false dawn driven by short-covering, telling us little about the world’s deformed economic, financial, and political landscape.

Corporate earnings peaked at $1.845 trillion (£1.3 trillion) in the second quarter of 2015, and recessions typically start five to seven quarters after the peak. "We will not be dancing on the volcano like so many others," said Saint-Georges.

The owners of capital have had it their way for much of the post-Lehman era, exorbitant beneficiaries of central bank largesse. Now they may have to give a little back to society. Yet this welcome “rotation” spells financial trouble.

Strategists Mislav Matejka and Emmanuel Cau, from JP Morgan, have told clients to prepare for the end of the seven-year bull run, advising them to trim equities gradually and build up a safety buffer in cash. “This is not the stage of the US cycle when one should be buying stocks with a six to 12-month horizon. We recommend using any strength as a selling opportunity,” they said.

Contrary to general belief, global core inflation is near a 15-year high, though disguised by the oil price crash. The energy “drag” will start to fade from the price data by July. Headline inflation may smash through the Fed’s 2pc target by the end of the year.

Fed chief Janet Yellen is in a horrible predicament. She can keep running the economy 'hot' - and by her own admission real rates are 1.25pc below their 'neutral' or Wicksellian level - in a bid to build up momentum.

The Fed may succeed in stretching this cycle until 2017. But sooner or later it will have to grasp the nettle, and then we will discover how much monetary pain can be taken by a dollarized global economy with post-QE pathologies and total debt ratios some 36pc of GDP higher than in 2008.

My guess is not much. So enjoy tactical rallies if you dare. But seven years into a profitless bull market is not a time for greed.

[cudmore] 08/4/2016 08:24

Looking good for the day. May see some serious buying here today!

[redbaron10] 07/4/2016 21:18

Apologies.A rock-driller died in an accident in a Lonmin mine dated 7/4.I meant no disrespect in my previous comment as to why the share price might have declined.I would like to pass on my sincerest sympathies to the friends and family at this difficult time.

[redbaron10] 07/4/2016 20:47

Strange trading day.3 gold miners,centamin,randgold,acacia, fill 3 of the top 7 share gainers in ftse350 and yet lonmin and anglo traded down.The market does not recognise pt as a safe haven play like gold yet, and it is only being regarded as a normal commodity like copper for its industrial use.Both gold and Platinum are rising in price as precious metals should with global growth concerns and Dr copper is off big time as you would expect.Nontheless the lonmin share price has behaved as if it was a copper miner! If AAL and lonmin don't pop tomorrow as a delayed reaction to todays platinum price rise and clear risk -off sentiment enveloping world markets then i will be even more baffled as to what is going on.Possibly we need the nervousness and volatility to return to the Chinese markets for there to be a big jolt to platinum miner share prices.The prevalent thinking in the western world is that gold is the only safe haven play.Platinum is considered more of a safe haven in China and the Far East.It's a cultural belief to value platinum and its jewellery a lot more highly than we do.China after all is responsible for most of platinum's demand.Let's see what happens overnight in the Asian markets.Might get a clearer picture of where LMI goes from here.

[umitw] 07/4/2016 14:21

Au is up Ag is up, plat is up. LMI is down...?

[redbaron10] 07/4/2016 13:42

Bit confused lazyhisnibs reading your thread again.It reads like you are a shorter of LMI share price.Maybe i'm wrong and i apologise if so,but sounds like you want the LMI to retrace to 35p again on the back of a strong dollar.I'm in this share to invest,and hope for LMI to succeed.

[redbaron10] 07/4/2016 13:18

Dollar strengthening is the last thing we need.The strong USD is killing EMs and commodity based currencies.The likes of SA need a break from the strong USD so the longer Yellen and the Fed holds off rate hikes the better.If the dollar index softens,we will get the commodity price increases and general world inflation the developed economies are crying out for.This deflationary environment is deadly.Just look at Japan over the last 15 years to see what the world central banks are trying to avoid.If we get a corresponding increase in demand for all commodities, signifying some world growth, then perfect.

[lazyhisnibs] 06/4/2016 21:53

"The share price probably has a theoretical/psychological floor price of £1"

Hmmm, during the RI excitement I guessed a range (when consolidated in to new money) of between 75p and 125p would establish itself while the management team proved it could get the operational restructuring done to schedule. Instead it fell as low as 35p or thereabouts. It also overshot on the upside rally.

Some analysts in SA see most commodity proxy share prices moderating a fair way (but probably not all the way) to whence they started a few months back. That'll take sometime and the USD strengthening on the market discounting for a June increase by the Fed will help to get the move going.

[umitw] 06/4/2016 19:57

Experts come out to play when the share price is down! LOL

[redbaron10] 06/4/2016 18:28

Thanks Ben for your optimism!

[yrcw] 06/4/2016 13:59

This is bad business. Sell all before next rights issue coming up

[redbaron10] 05/4/2016 19:01

Rand tanking against the dollar.If Zuma's name is mentioned in the Panamanian revelations,and after the court ruling against him last week,this is going to get rather intense.As if there isn't enough volatility here,if Zuma goes,then SA economic credibility could get a real boost here.

[umitw] 05/4/2016 13:58

Double bottom, hopefully up from here!

[careful] 05/4/2016 13:37

platinum up $20 today.

[redbaron10] 05/4/2016 13:31

Well if Ben wants to keep his job,i can't believe he's going to come out on May 16 and say all the rights issue capital has been squandered.Hopefully he will emphasise that the business plan and restructuring promised is on,if not ahead of schedule,and robust cost-cutting is being achieved.I know employee safety is and must be a priority,but if major prominence is given to poor production numbers due to say an abnormal number of safety stoppages,in the Q1 report,then as investors, we are in trouble.Confidence and goodwill is in very short supply with Lonmin, and Ben and his management team have to perform now or else.