London Scottish Bank Share Discussion Threads

[quraishim] 12/6/2008 09:35

cyclingnut............lol!!! you wish!!!

[lawson27] 12/6/2008 09:28

davius hi

just how bad is L2 looking, thinking of picking up a few, or should i wait do you think?

[cyclingnut] 12/6/2008 09:25

mommy I feel like I have been gang raped by 10 angry prisoners...

[davius] 12/6/2008 09:21

50K buy over bid at 8.375p when were at 7.5-8.0p, can never understand these trades. Just split it up and get a lower price...

Someone is snapping up any large sell orders, another 50K appeared at 7.75p and was taken immediately.

Nice to see a buyer around, even if the share price is down.

7.25-7.9p

:(

[davius] 12/6/2008 08:58

Ouch, hurting again. 7.84-8p. Brings tears to my eyes. Wouldn't like to have a T-Trade open in this one.

Doh, make that 7.5-8p...

[grlz] 11/6/2008 15:26

Good deal imho CES only paid LSB £26k in divi according to the accounts, so it won't be missed

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 14:48

I think they could announce that they have agreed to a takeover at 21p and the shares would still drop in these markets!!

[grlz] 11/6/2008 14:46

LSB have announced the sale of CES shares back to CES for £550,000 paid in full on completion. The carrying value of this investment, in LSB's balance sheet at 31 October 2007, was £491,000.

Clearing away the clutter and making a profit

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 14:36

any predictions on the rights issue price?

[davius] 11/6/2008 13:23

The RNS Says he increased his holding by half a million, from 3.85m to 4.35m, with 100K of those 'indirect'.

Well good to see someone accumulating.

[grlz] 11/6/2008 13:16

looks like most is direct only 100k in his SIPP imho



DYOR

[davius] 11/6/2008 13:10

That was my point grtz, when a company needs to raise a large sum in comparison to its market cap THEN it really matters.

I see the RNS you refer to, A. Murgagh Pension has a 3.05% stake...

[grlz] 11/6/2008 12:58

DAV - you must have missed how WAGN suffered on that news..

Anyway trading wise - time to get in Anthony Murtagh could be stake building he runs The Money Group in Plymouth having previously ran TMG before selling to GE for £30m

I can't see the guy getting into this one unless he was looking to takeover

DYOR

[davius] 11/6/2008 12:45

> associated restructuring costs makes the current share issue worthless

I don't agree with that. The issue is how much they need to raise. If you look at Wagon then they have a 10 for 1 fundraising at 4p, the required funds are huge in comparison to the market cap.

B&B are raising £400m, just under the current market cap, their shares are not worthless.

We simply don't know how much LSB need to raise, but in selling the Invoicing business for £28.5m it should be less than many feared. The shortfall was quoted at £13.8m, that is only just over the market cap at the current SP, and one hopes this figure has been lowered by the cash part of the £28.5m (which was £9m). A £4.8m fundraising is not huge, for what could be a £50m debt recovery business.

I still think they'll raise more than that, the issue is just how much they need.

I can never understand why people get so worked up over discounted fundraising, the level of the discount is irrelevant if you take up your rights.

[grlz] 11/6/2008 12:31

dav/cyc - can't argue with the business strategy although imho further impairments to the lending book plus associated restructuring costs makes the current share issue worthless, hence the need LSB have stated that once they have completed their shake-up the intention is to re-capitalise the business to move forward - £15m of the banking facility is a bridge to keep the company afloat.

The banks are well protected by the some of parts so they carry no risk should the company be forced into administration (think of TRX) - shareholders are the ones who stand to lose everything if the fund-raising fails to attract enough interest, imho it's going to be heavily discounted to succeed and may combine a consolidation

DYOR all imho

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 10:38

cheers Davius,

I am a little surprised that this is not on more peoples radars. Rather than a rights issue perhaps someone will stump up the cash for a stake in the business? whoops just read the below....


"As previously announced in its AGM statement, LSB is proposing an
equity capital issue as part of the re-capitalisation of the Company and to
remedy the regulatory capital shortfall."

[davius] 11/6/2008 10:23

Well if they were to refinance for a few million and trim everything bar Robinson Way that has to be worth £50m minimum. The credit crunch and house prices falling means debt recovery will continue to grow so it would seem to be the right kind of business for troubled times. The numbers suggest RW could make perhaps £10m a year, less costs. A trimmed down business might have costs of say £3-£4m so £6-7m profit at current trading, maybe more with growth.

A 2.5 multiple of todays cap should be feasible if investors take up the rights. It depends on how much they need to raise of course, if much lower than the £11m odd I suggested previously then a £50m market cap would result in a relatively higher share price.

I've set my sell target at 20p.

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 09:51

HA HA!!

Nice one Davius....must admit I am happy to be out of Jarvis although it will more than likely fly now. Just wish I cut loose at 40p...but when it was rising I got carried away and was expecting 50-60p pretty quickly.

I now have fully funded MDX which I bought at 52p and I will hold that for 80p and will wait as long as that takes.

What upside can you see on this in say 12 months?

Thanks for your responses.

[davius] 11/6/2008 09:15

Anything is possible, but as I already said the banks would hardly provide an £85m credit facility if they were going to the wall. It's impossible to know if something really dodgy is going on but if you approach your bank for a mortgage you can bet on them being pretty careful before lending you any money. One would suspect that the same is now true (and probably more so) for business facilities.

The £28.5m unit sale will have covered their backsides. Panic not, testicularly challenged one...

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 08:27

bloody scarey....is receivership an option?

[ihavenoclue] 11/6/2008 08:18

cycling .. even though it fell then rose yesterday it still dropped overall .. i would not like to guess where the share price ends up before news

[cyclingnut] 11/6/2008 07:40

THE DOWNTREND continues?

[grlz] 11/6/2008 00:16

Dav - newsflow it's not what the market knows its what it expects that moves the share price and it's a dry summer unless they deliver a good package later this month

[davius] 10/6/2008 22:04

We should remember that they hit 5p when it looked like the company may not survive, before the refinancing and recent sale. Although it doesn't preclude that share price being hit again it would be surprising given how much progress has been made since.