London Scottish Bank Share Discussion Threads

[ihavenoclue] 04/6/2008 13:56

Why announce it end of June when they have another 4 months ???? They would be stupid to kill the share price in the way you are describing !!!

[grlz] 04/6/2008 13:14

I hold also after trading back in and expect a run-up as we approach the end of the month, when imho they will probably announce the fundraising.

DYOR

[cyclingnut] 04/6/2008 12:35

grlz,

ENOUGH.............you are depressing me as I bought in at 11.25p!!

lol

[grlz] 04/6/2008 12:10

cyc - just a guesstimate but LSB has around £4m cash excluding the new £70m (85m) banking facilities - I expect further cash to be released to fund RW as the unsec/secured lending books are run off but RW is a capital business and LSB lacks capital - Management have stated they intend to resolve this going forward, I just can't see a fund raising being possible with an share price at this level - the math is all imho but look at how PAG's rights issue was 90% discounted.
DYOR

[grlz] 04/6/2008 11:41

cyc - overhang risk as institutions possibly adjust their holdings before the rights/placing will hold back the share price - the main drag is we all know a fundraising is coming but at what level and how diluting?? - at this MK pi's could be blown away if the company taps as expected to recapitalise RW going forwards.

Interims are due the 30th June

imho LSB will consolidate the issue then offer - imho it's the only way forwards at this share price plus it would benefit the company as smaller holders from the old £1 levels would be scrubbed away on the rounding - my guess (and thats all this is) 25 old shares for each new 1 (250p sp) with the rights offered @80p - my thinking is LSB are going to have to deeply discount this if their looking to tap £20m to recapitalise RW going forwards which is my expectation - my math guesstimate is 142m shares consolidated to 5.7m @250p 25m new shares@80p New issue 30.7m shares MK £34m - not great as that would leave todays share price @3.6p post rights

all imho

[davius] 04/6/2008 09:04

My understanding is that the close period is 6 weeks before results. Interims due 30th June.

The statement from the AGM in April was as follows:

Factoring
The Factoring Division has increased its profits to 0.9m (5 months to March 2007 0.7m) with continued growth in its volumes of business and income as well as profits. The previously announced exit from factoring is progressing well and, having managed a competitive sales process, the Group has entered into exclusive negotiations for a short period with the preferred potential purchaser.

We now know that the preferred purchaser was Hitachi Capital. This seems like a good price for a division which they wanted to dispose of and wasn't making much contribution to the bottom line (£0.9m for the 5 months to March).

They indicated that they were planning to close the Loan Broking division in May, though we've had no confirmation of this yet.

Also ongoing is the plan to integrate LSF and Morses at a cost of £10m, which should help reduce the losses from the Unsecured Consumer Credit division. This appears to be the main drag on the figures at present, perhaps they are considering selling this too...

I have purchased 30000 shares for my ISA at 10.48p as I feel the LSIF sale is a good deal and should mean dillution from a rights issue is minimized.

[ihavenoclue] 04/6/2008 08:57

Saying "patience is a virtue ... patience is a virtue" .... ~turns the monitor off~

[ihavenoclue] 03/6/2008 22:37

grlz .. "when it was ramped up to 18" ... someone recently mentioned it was ramped on that day as a possible takeover but i remember at the time it was over disposal news. Now disposal news has happened, and what seems on very good terms - unless i am missing something, and the news has been recieved like a damp squid.

Also is LSB in a closed period ? I thought it was until 30th June, when LSB release their results, but others have said they are not. A few director buys may give the squid some life !!

Regards
IHNC

[ihavenoclue] 03/6/2008 22:23

My only worry here is a rights issue with the share price at this level .. ughhh

[grlz] 03/6/2008 14:32

MeanM - CG has imho become emotional about this stock, two clear transaction points have passed to trade this successfully and both given the content of her posts she has missed. The first when it ramped to 18 - the second yesterday when the phrase "selling the news" became apt. Holding grimly on for better days may yield fruits but tradewise there is no newsflow here until the next update/results

She acts like an LT investor, but posts like a day trader.. confusing?

[meanm] 03/6/2008 09:33

Double Citygirl?

Positivity?

I don't know if I am coming or going with you.

[ihavenoclue] 03/6/2008 09:08

10am and down she goes ... would be nice when the seller takes their foot off LSB's throat.

[city girl] 03/6/2008 08:57

Hi Honey. I target my large trades very carefully and yes I did buy in at 5p but this stock should be capable of at least double the current price, maybe more, but it needs the board to get their act together. So far it's been a case of too little, too slow.

[ihavenoclue] 03/6/2008 08:21

You bought in to make a profit ? You said you bought in at 5p .. IF you did is 120% profit not enough ?

I still feel this is being held back by a seller ... time will tell.

[city girl] 03/6/2008 08:10

Hi guys. You mean realistic as usual.
It might have been talked up up to 17.5p in the days just before the AGM on prospects of a takeover but that was just hot air and it crashed back to 9p the moment the AGM announcement was released showing the cupboard was bare.
I bought in to make a profit and that should still be possible but it needs something to kick start the recovery. I don't think this news is enough to trigger the ride upwards and so far it looks as though I'm right.

[ihavenoclue] 03/6/2008 07:36

Neutral ???? ... it shot up to 18p on just the hope of a disposal in April !! I think sentiment on banks currently and AXA still selling are holding it back IMHO

Regards
IHNC

[meanm] 03/6/2008 07:35

Positive as usual C.G.!

Sell now, for all our sakes.

[city girl] 03/6/2008 07:19

I think this 19.5 million to be paid in respect of intra-group (inter-group?) loans is maybe nothing more than a bit of window dressing though it's not very clear. Maybe that's intentional. If anyone can flesh out this woolly statement please do.
The extra capital coming in from the disposal appears to be just the 9 million but won't this be eroded by half year losses (of what, 8 million?).
Maybe this news is more neutral than it appeared at first reading which might explain why the market has largely ignored it.

[penrynner] 03/6/2008 05:19

Other non listed debt collection agencies similar to Robinson Way are valued at £50~£70 million.

[grlz] 03/6/2008 01:41

problem is all the news is out now so there is nothing to trade until an update or the results are due - AXA is an unknown negative, although imho it's selling is nothing like that of BT/Hermes so it won't go below 8p imho and may stay above 10p.

Again just a guess but the potential placing/rights issue isn't just going to cover any shortfall in the capital requirement, LSB have stated that they also intend to recapitalise the business going forwards. That could mean they may want to tap an xtra £7-14m of cash from investors if you use this new banking facility as a starting base, they could be looking looking to cover 10-20% with their own capital.... A hefty dilution by any measure

The prospects LT are great as RW is now on a firm ground - BUT i'm not jumping up and down as LSB still has a significant loan book and could yet generate further heavy impairment charges

DYOR

[quraishim] 02/6/2008 22:52

ihvc....this should have risen.........but pi's think this is run of the mill bank involved with BTL mortgages......so nobody was too excited because all the banks were bashed due to Bradford and Bingley.....We need Analyst's upgrade and more positive news from press for this to move forward.

[ihavenoclue] 02/6/2008 22:41

I agree with M4P ... AXA is still selling .. but they are selling elsewhere too. Now things are a bit more stable i would hope to see some institutional BUYING ... but maybe i am hoping for too much at the moment LOL

[m4p] 02/6/2008 22:01

while around 19.5 million pounds will be paid in respect of certain intra-group loans between London Scottish Bank and LSIF.

How much of this 19.5 million will they be able to add onto the balance sheet to go with the 9 million? to reduce the debt under the regulatory agreement and reduce the burden on shareholders?

I think the reason for the dissapointing share price is that we still have a large seller (AXA)? (see this mornings large sell)

So we need to wait for the overhang to clear