Location Sciences Share Discussion Threads

[plunge] 30/12/2021 09:00

Here is another enlightening post from Muck165 on the LSE chat forum.

Always useful to look at time lines…

Hughes/Kamani invest in Avacta early 2020
They shortly then set upM19, and get exclusive B2C rights, and non exclusive B2B rights to the Avacta test.
M19 tried to get their own RSPT test away, but that seems to have failed, largely I think because it’s an antibody not an antigen test.
Then in April it seems Hughes and Kamani lumped more cash into M19 Healthcare (see charges registered at companies house)
In May they, with a concert group of family, Cheshire based investors, and notably Stephenson of M19, invest in LSAI, a business on its knees, ostensibly to drive the existing business. But shortly thereafter they give notice to the 2 remaining legacy Directors (promising to ensure they benefit from the EXISTING business), and begin to sell down assets.
From June/July onwards M19 is like tumbleweed on social media..weird for sales and marketing experts. We now know that in this period their focus has been getting HUA for AffiDx, building Saturn Pass, and potentially also Agile.
They trademarked Meduflow in November, but despite the HUA appear to have done next to nothing to promote it. Perhaps they don’t need to because of deals going on behind the scenes?
Whatever, I’m convinced that there was zero reason for the concert party to buy into LSAI unless it was M19 linked, and the fact LSAI has £20m of prior trading losses to use may well have been a primary driver.

[tima441] 30/12/2021 06:58

The number of shares out prior to the placing was 587m.
If my calcs are right there are potentially 4.6bil shs after the placing and if all warrants & options exercised.

Bearing in mind that the Placing was basically to the Concert Party .... and other Clients of TurnerPope it could be said that near 4bil out of the 4.6bil were all in friendly hands. i.e. 85%

Albeit that many of those would not be "insiders" or part of Concert Party they would be people that TurnerPope see as business clients & in some cases friends.

I might suggest that almost all of the Placing would have gone into very sticky hands - some would even have added in the market (I did!). So the number of shares that are in free float might be just 10% of the enlarged capital? Just £2.5m at 0.5p?

The mechanics mean on any of the expected type news this goes one way.

I rest my case!

[bradwellbasher] 29/12/2021 13:11

Well I bought £1000 of these shares at 0.45p, these are the only shares I've ever bought. I've just comfortably retired after 42 years on a Ford production line.
I'm sticking with these shares to the glorious or bitter end, the plan being the unlikely chance to purchase a vintage E type! Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[richie32] 29/12/2021 12:10

Well I've bought some today. No idea why.

I just saw a long queue and joined it.

[tima441] 29/12/2021 08:59

I managed to grab a few more first thing. Will not chase as I hold a decent position and happy to hold for as long as it takes to play out. At a guess ... sometime in Q1? Perhaps in next 6 weeks even? But just a guess!

[plunge] 28/12/2021 21:44

We may see further upticks in the share price if punters (especially from the Avacta board) see LSAI as a potential play in tying up with Medusa 19.

[plunge] 28/12/2021 08:59

Thanks tima441 - an interesting and possible outcome. Let's see what 2022 brings.

[tima441] 28/12/2021 07:36

What's the future hold? - not advice!

Currently
I think this is key....if my maths right...& lump Directors with Concert Party...
- They currently have around 757m shs out of 2.6bil. Just under 30%.
- If they exercise all warrants & options they will have around 2.7bil out of 4.6bil shs outstanding I.e. almost 60%. 
- 757m cost them approx £1.5m afaik
- Roughly another 2bil will cost them around £4m. (most 0.2p.. some higher. Say another £4m cash into co. But will not exercise yet - as they will not want to bid

What next?
stressing this is just my guess:
- Do a big placing at 1p (or more)... and buy @medusa19_
- Big placing at 1p... then trading at say 1.5p.... everyone happy!!!!!

Potential Placing
- Again stressing just a guess & idle musings:
Issue 10bil shs at 1p = £100m cash
Total shs out 12.6bil 
- Concert Party subscribe for 1.5bil new shs giving them 2.2bil in total (17.5%) but after exercise of options & warrants 4.2bil out of 12.6bil i.e. almost 30% (keeping under bid threshold)

War-chest
- £100m from placing
- £4m from from warrants/options exercise

Buy Medusa19 
- Hughes & Kamani invested £20m in Dec 2020 & have built significant business including recently:
AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test has received a CE mark for use as a consumer self-test in the UK and EU.
- LSAI pay £50m(?) for Medusa19?
- Possibly add Saturn Pass too?

Other actions:
- Rename LSAI as Medusa19
- Integrate Verify with SaturnPass if synergies exist? Or
Divest previous business
- Consolidate shares 10:1 so 1.26bil outstanding  with say £50m cash 
- Possibly take stake(s) in one or more LFT manufacturer? (ABDX? ODX?) or better to remain ind from manufacturers?

Enterprise value?
1.26 bil shs trading at say 15p = £189m mkt cap

Concert Party
420m shs @ 15p = £63m
Vs cost 
270m @ 2p = £5.4m
150m @ 10p = £15m
Total £20.4m

Hughes/Kamani get £30m profit on original Medusa19 outlay. Not unreasonable seed finance uplift? 

I welcome feedback, comments or alternative views!

[tima441] 27/12/2021 14:49

New poll added to Telegram group for #LSAI
Plans for 2022? RTO Medusa19?
Placing at premium to fund RTO?
Join group via link

[tima441] 23/12/2021 13:19

My guess (not advice!!)

I think this is key....if my maths right...& lump Directors with Concert Party...
They currently have around 757m shs out of 2.6bil. Just under 30%.
If they exercise all warrants & options they will have around 2.7bil out of 4.6bil shs outstanding I.e. almost 60%.

757m cost them approx £1.5m afaik
Roughly another 2bil will cost them around £4m. (most 0.2p.. some higher). Say another £4m cash into co. But will not exercise yet - as they will not want to bid

stressing this is just my guess:
Do a big placing at 1p (or more)... and buy @medusa19_
Big placing at 1p... then trading at say 1.5p.... everyone happy!!!!!

[hazl] 22/12/2021 16:37

What's happening here then?

[plunge] 22/12/2021 11:27

Here is news supporting the Medusa 19 hype.



Fingers crossed !!!

[plunge] 22/12/2021 11:10

Speculation on the other side suggesting a reverse takeover of Medusa 19 is in the offing.

As long as the share price continues with an upward move, I will be happy with whatever transpires.

[breakconvention] 22/12/2021 10:59

Somebody knows this is going to fly soon. Large buys all morning.

[breakconvention] 21/12/2021 16:23

More solid buying, could that RNS, drop soon...hope so

[stephenk123] 20/12/2021 20:45

How is this down so much if there are more buys than sells...... Or is there a hidden delay in a big sell!?!..... Almost getting to the £5m cash sitting in the bank

[plunge] 10/12/2021 15:46

From the link below, it looks like GeoProve is offering the exact same solution for validating location data that LSAI has done in the past.



Now the question is, has it reinvented the wheel or has it acquired the technology from LSAI? My guess it's the latter but let us see.

[mashman] 05/12/2021 17:54

It's for sure they are trying to bore us out of our shares and I am getting bored. There are lots of better uses for my cash out there... but then//?

[plunge] 02/12/2021 09:59

I say pay them off and let us move forward.

[pwhite73] 01/12/2021 15:39

The CEO and CFO were given 12 months notice on 21/06/2021. Clearly there are alternative plans for the company. However they are not going to say anything to retail shareholders until enough of them have handed back their shares.

[plunge] 01/12/2021 08:45

There basically appears to be a total disregard by both the new and old guard for us long suffering retail investors.