Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[cobourg1] 31/7/2020 13:26

EssentialInvestor

I totally agree with your analysis. Hard times are coming for many people, and Lloyds
will not be immune from taking some kind of hit, but Lloyds will not fail because it will not be allowed to fail like the rest of the banking system. We saw that in 2008 and we'll see it again, we couldn't be investing in anything safer IMO. Although Lloyds is regarded as a bellwether for the British economy it is also not linked to it on a one-to-one basis. Although the economy will decline Lloyds may not decline in the same ratio.

I think there will be all kinds of government stimulus still to come, with Brexit coming on top of Covid there will have to be. I also imagine that the government may interfere in the running of the banks to the extent of ordering them to give payment holidays etc. That being the case they will have to be given help if they need it.

We are in for a thin time I think, with an inevitable drop-in most people standard of living of some kind. As I said before the real hope for a V-shaped recovery, to get us out of this mess, is an effective vaccine.

I thought Lioyds was very undervalued at 31p on it's PBR and cash generative ability, I just wish I had a load of spare cash to buy some more.

[k38] 31/7/2020 13:09

Sh#t happens. We all know when comes to virus, Boris was very unlucky. But..I expect the fruits of his real leadership and hard work will be shown in a year from now time. And..Labour will be going to another leadership election before they have a chance to govern Britain.

[k38] 31/7/2020 13:00

A bunch of losers...;))

[k38] 31/7/2020 12:59

Do you want to be known as a politician?Do you want to make a name of yourself as politician? Go to BBC and complain against the most popular PM and government of the last 30 years.But there is also a price to pay as Jo Swinson will tell you...Lol...

[maxk] 31/7/2020 12:55

Kier Stoomer was the best of the bunch. Diane Abbott was the real leader of choice.

[supermarky] 31/7/2020 12:53

and today will be sold into. Mark my words

[k38] 31/7/2020 12:50

Poor Keith Starmer.. everyday and every time he open his mouth it shows more and more it was a poor choice from labour to elect him as a leader.

[polar fox] 31/7/2020 12:33

For info, leeds has set up a new BB for NatWest. Epic: NWG

[polar fox] 31/7/2020 12:25

For info, leeds has set up a new BB for NatWest. Epic NWG. It's broadly the same as the existing RBS BB. My new bookmark works fine.

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2020 12:03

Ladeside
"we've still got the consultation periods, then the notice periods"

Furlough starts to wind down from tomorrow...
Some of the larger companies started their consultation 6-7 weeks ago so to coincide with furlough being wound down.

Hence why there have already been thousands of redundancies..

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2020 12:01

EI

"Atm the economy is in suspended animation, at least to a degree."

Exactly... everyone feels fine because of govn support... once that support goes, then the reality will sink in..

[grahamite2] 31/7/2020 12:00

Not specifically China, is it? The Orientals have been doing this for years.

[ladeside] 31/7/2020 11:57

It will be at least a year before the true picture becomes apparent, we've still got the consultation periods, then the notice periods and then the redundancy safety nets, it's once that's all said and done and the snowball effect takes place on consumer spending that the terrible reality of the Economic situation will become clear.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2020 11:36

cobourg, what do you think will happen as the furlough schemes are eventually
wound down?.

Atm the economy is in suspended animation, at least to a degree.
The full picture will only emerge as government support is withdrawn.

Odds of all furlough support being removed by October look slim.

Looks to me as if a huge unemployment hit is coming.

It may not be a case of have Lloyds been too cautious on provisioning
and more a case of whether they need to shore up the balance sheet next year.

[gaffer73] 31/7/2020 11:25

That's the conclusion I came to as I can't for the life of me see how they will write off 3.4b.

[xxxxxy] 31/7/2020 10:56

Sometimes the maths and science don't give the full picture or answer. Sometimes go by gut feeling. Not the best for sure. But strange times throwing up a lot of unknowns. Sometimes got to be a bit brave in life. Otherwise stay in bed in a Dark room. Looking only at sub 20p. For me, that is.

[nemesis6] 31/7/2020 10:52

normally i get asked...need a 90% loan no debts but paying 5-700 quid a month on a car. DERRRRRRRRR

[cobourg1] 31/7/2020 10:51

Huge provisions for notional future debt, but I wonder where all the debt is going to come from. Banks don't usually lose money by repossessing property, especially Lloyds which seems to have a prudent loan to value ratio. A good proportion of the other debt is surely covered by government guarantees. If they are over providing for the future it will all come out in the wash eventually and the share price will recover.

Kill dividends for a year. Stack large amounts in reserve. Report an apparent loss and because you haven't made any profit you can't be asked to pay any tax. Is this what they are doing?

When the dust settles in 6 to 12 months things may not be nearly as bad as they look now. Let's hope so.

A vaccine would be an absolute game changer in restoring some semblance of normality and reports of progress from various vaccine programs around the world look very positive. I have to hold because I'm well under water on a large number of shares and I refuse to sell shares in a good company at a loss, done that too often in the past and it's never been a good strategy, but I'm not losing sleep because I'm a Lloyds holder.

[phillis] 31/7/2020 10:47

no sign of any movement in the PPI balance sheet provision

[semper vigilans] 31/7/2020 10:43

There is also the issue of whether or not taking the mortgage payment holiday will affect credit ratings in the future.
Student loans - I’m sure if I was lending money to an individual I wouldn’t disregard a £50k loan.

[patientcapital] 31/7/2020 10:42

A rare up tick there.

[sikhthetech] 31/7/2020 10:19

I expect there were some who used mortgage payment hols to go on holiday...
I don't blame them.. there were reports that large amounts of credit card debt was paid off, so it makes sense if people took a mort pay hol to pay down credit cards..

The unknown is how many of the 2m who took mortgage payment hols actually needed it and will have problems paying the higher premiums in the future. Evictions are illegal at the moment, so it'll be some time before we have a clearer picture..

Furlough is being wound down from next week and there were 9m staff being furloughed...


It's still early days..