Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[patientcapital] 28/1/2020 10:11

It is now becoming abundantly clear that the EU wishes for an early failure in talks almost as much as some in the UK do:"Brussels is demanding that European Union judges have the power to rule on any post-Brexit agreement with the United Kingdom.An internal Brussels diplomatic document, seen by The Times, reveals that the EU will insist that the European Court of Justice be able to enforce the terms of a trade, fishing and security deal.The move, which comes days before Britain leaves the European Union at 11pm on Friday, has been condemned by Brexiteers, who called on Boris Johnson to "walk away" from the talks rather than accede to the demands.Downing Street sources also rejected the proposal, saying that the European court was "by very definition not a neutral arbiter"." - The Times

[careful] 28/1/2020 09:49

fishing rights vs financial services.

Last time we traded the tiny fishing industry in exchange for the huge financial services industry.
Now the talk is of hanging on to the fish and sacrificing the cash.

Already Brexit uncertainty has caused us to lose the status of being the Worlds most important financial centre, a position held for centuries.

We shall all be using food banks at this rate..so don't throw away surplus food after your Brexit party, you may need it.

[utrickytrees] 28/1/2020 09:36

Mins a swiss chard lòoooooooool!

[grahamite2] 28/1/2020 09:32

A great punchline to that article:

Indeed, in the spirit of promoting Brexit harmony, I entreat any despairing Remoaners to hand all of their unwanted Brexit 50 pence pieces over to me.

In return, I will give them 20 pence back and tell them what they are allowed to spend it on. That way they can happily go on pretending that they are still living in the EU and Brexit has never happened.

[maxk] 28/1/2020 09:29

Robbed from the JTC thread. h/t to Jason Burn.

[maxk] 28/1/2020 09:04

Good one graham! Should drive Min even more insane than you thought possible :-)

[grahamite2] 28/1/2020 09:02

3 days 13 hours 57 minutes!

[gbh2] 28/1/2020 08:29

Shows what we PIs are up against & why we're generally behind the curve !

[wendsworth] 28/1/2020 08:23

mitchy : Have raised my buy limit to 56.5 .As ever we'll see !

[cheshire pete] 28/1/2020 08:05

Stop loss limits held so far this morning amidst talk of the 'black swan' event...makes a change from the black horse lol.

[freddie01] 28/1/2020 07:40

You know, I'd have more respect for Brexiters if, having got their Brexit, they would show some compassion for those that do not want to leave the EU, or for those that do risk losing their way of life or being able to make a living.

Posted by the gimp who wishes death and disease on Brexiteers.He really is unhinged.

[jordaggy] 28/1/2020 03:40

Carney Has Traders in Suspense With Knife-Edge Last Meeting
By David Goodman
28 January 2020, 00:01 GMT
Markets put rate-cut chance at almomst 60% before decision
Governor silent since unleashing rate bets in Jan. 9 speech

Mark Carney’s final decision at the Bank of England is on a knife edge, and the governor hasn’t done anything to ease the tension.

While the Canadian, who hands over the reins to Andrew Bailey in March, has mostly held investors’ hands before crucial policy meetings, this time he’s allowing them to figure it out for themselves by sifting through a slew of conflicting data.

That’s left expectations going into the meeting delicately poised, with traders seeing an almost 60% chance a move, the most divided they’ve been this close to a decision under Carney’s reign. In a further sign of uncertainty, economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted five different results for the vote splits among the Monetary Policy Committee’s nine policy makers, although the majority expects a 6-3 vote to hold.

relates to Carney Has Traders in Suspense With Knife-Edge Last Meeting
The cliffhanger is a fitting end for the governor, who has faced criticism in the past for what investors have seen as communication missteps. He hasn’t been able to shake the “unreliable boyfriend” moniker since a lawmaker called him that in 2014.

Despite his reputation, Carney’s BOE has sent very strong signals ahead of previous live meetings, either dropping concerted hints a move was imminent or, as was the case in spring 2018, pushing back against climbing bets on a change in policy. Traders were fooled once, in the summer of 2016, when Carney signaled a cut was coming in the month after the June Brexit referendum. The move eventually came in August.

These Nine BOE Policy Makers May Decide to Cut Interest Rates
BOE Timeline: Tracking the Swinging Bets on January Rate Cut
Signs of Election Bounce Undermine Case for Immediate BOE Cut
This time around the signals have been more mixed. There were a number of dovish comments and speeches at the start of 2020, grouped together partly in a reflection of the limited time officials had to speak between meetings. Most policy makers indicated their vote would be linked with incoming data. Carney, meanwhile, has stayed quiet on policy since his Jan. 9 speech that kicked off the bets on easing, declining to quell expectations in the intervening period.

With Bailey about to step in, Carney might want to take the pressure off his successor if cuts are needed soon by acting now. That would echo his former European Central Bank counterpart, Mario Draghi, who unveiled more stimulus before he left in November.

January Journey
Traders' expectations for a BOE cut this month have ebbed and flowed


Source: Bloomberg

The problem for investors is judging which economic reports are more important. Generally, the official reports this month, which cover November and December, have been disappointing, while the more up-to-date surveys of sentiment have been upbeat and provided signs of economic bounce following Boris Johnson’s election win last month. BOE officials will also likely draw heavily on their network of agents, which won’t be publicly released until the decision is announced.

What our Economists Say:
“The small amount of data we’ve had for the period since December’s general election suggests growth could pick up pace this year. We think the news will be enough to keep rates steady in January but it’s far from certain. The majority of the MPC may still see merit in loosening policy to underpin an expected rebound in growth.”

-- Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Economics

The upshot is that traders still see a cut as more likely than not, even after a report Friday showed U.K. economic activity roared back to the highest level since 2018 in January. One argument for a move, used by rate voter Michael Saunders, is that even if a cut proves to be the wrong step, it can easily be reversed.

“We expect next week’s outcome to be finely balanced,” Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja wrote in a note last week. “That said, we continue to think the MPC will opt for a risk management approach to monetary policy. What does this mean in practice? Simply put, it means cut early and be prepared to cut more if the economy doesn’t shake off its sluggishness.”

[jordaggy] 28/1/2020 02:18

Lloyds have paid mind boggling amounts back to the UK government and ppi and fines ect...surely with all that in the past, there must be some value going forward? when the HBOS, brexit and final ppi liabilities are also behind us, all I see is potential. Mr. Market is pricing in too many brexit fears imo.