Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 31/7/2019 11:34

How soon we forget.
Remember those gut lurching crashes of 2003 2008.
Some days that whole market fell 8%, a sea of red.

All of the stock selection in the world did not help.
By the time it as all over 40% was off he market.

Without intervention by the central banks in 2008/9 the whole system would have collapsed.
Some say it is only central bank intervention, low interest rates and debt that has kept the markets afloat.

but we feel quite smart when the tide takes us up again.

[shy tott] 31/7/2019 11:23

I didn't say you were. btw, your post wasn't there when i wrote mine. I implied you were deluded thinking that it helps with investments if you try to analyse then use weird and wonderful financial products. Long term, the chances are you'll end up poor, whereas if you buy and hold very long term without knowing much at all beyond common sense and an introductory bit of financial knowledge, you'll end up rich.

The pragmatic problem is that you have to start young, which is probably too late for most here. But not their kids.

what are your views on charting? I bet they are those of the crowd. which is how your financial performance will be, as the crowd does. i.e. some gains, some losses, working till 65.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2019 11:19

To be fair impairments are still near historically low levels,
however the market is looking for the slightest sign of trouble ahead.

I highlighted the latest Red Flag alert data yesterday showing neatly half
a million UK companies now in serious financial distress. Lloyds is the UK's
largest commercial lender, they also have significant exposure to UK commercial property, from memory - Take a look at Intu today.

[alphorn] 31/7/2019 11:14

ST - still on the wind up?!

Not a short term trader as you well know.

[careful] 31/7/2019 11:14

shorting as an hedge baffles me.
Why bet that a horse will win, then place another bet that it will lose as an hedge?

[shy tott] 31/7/2019 11:12

Careful, the only evidence you need to know - thereby needing no advice - is that most rich people have a long term or very long term portfolio which is hardly ever touched. Traders overall lose money, it's just that advfn bb has only the uber successful ones.

So, buy solid companies and hold. Don't buy and sell everytime some nobody sneezes. The chances are very much, the highest, in your favour that in 30 years time you'll be self sufficient financially. All you really need to know is slater's beginners guide to investment and nothing more. otherwise you'll get like alp and who thinks you need to know the latest option write price for the zinbabwe acker against the ukrainian punt.

[alphorn] 31/7/2019 11:09

Careful - in a nutshell you have to consider shorting in these markets if you want to move forward or, at least, protect your investments.
You insure your property against fire etc but do not expect it to burn down every year.
(Covered 'bear' versus 'naked bear' position).

[careful] 31/7/2019 11:06

Minerve
It is one thing to confess that I have sinned and performed worse than Woodford, but giving embarrassing details is a bridge too far.

I appreciate there is a macro influence of Brexit, Sterling and other factors, and micro influences such as investing in obsolete poorly managed companies.

[alphorn] 31/7/2019 11:02

max - something like this one. Saw another about expats.
50% discount is not enough btw.

[careful] 31/7/2019 11:01

I also do not understand this trading with countries other that the EU. argument.

I know from detailed personal experience that we trade with Asia, China, Japan, Middle East, USA and Russia already.

About 50% with the EU. 50% elsewhere.

We trade on WTO terms or better EU. negotiated trade deals.

I do know it will be difficult to better the deals that the EU. get, that is why we negotiate with them.

the trouble lies with the mutually agreed club rules of the EU.
they are too restricting.
Swings and roundabouts.

[grahamite2] 31/7/2019 10:58

How odd to find someone who keeps saying how awful the old people are going on about Johnny Morris, who hasn't been on TV for 40 years!

[mikemichael2] 31/7/2019 10:57

careful, just hand your stack over to Min, it will 10 bag in 12 months.

[maxk] 31/7/2019 10:57

Alphorn31 Jul '19 - 10:22 - 266304 of 266315


Alp, I havent seen the article you refer to, perhaps you would care to post it up?

[kenbachelor] 31/7/2019 10:56

Broadwood - We thought we'd lost you.

Is there any chance of telling me what should be under 'Q3 interim management statement' in the header, as I've got a big gap down to 'Anyone is welcome here, so long as they respect other users'.

[minerve 2] 31/7/2019 10:54

careful

What shares are they? :)

[careful] 31/7/2019 10:51

I want some investment advice.
I have the portfolio from hell at the moment, mostly domestic shares.

But right now the pound is weak (because of hard Brexit fears they say) which makes $ earners attractive right now.
Also I read that international funds have withdrawn up to $20bn from UK domestic shares because of Brexit fears and trend following algo's.

What advice would the talented experts give me on this thread.

Should I,
1. Double up, be contrarian, a sensible deal will be done, you are in the right place, the £ will get stronger.
2. Bale out whilst I still have some left. This is only the beginning.

[minerve 2] 31/7/2019 10:49

There, some good share advice. Even though some of you chimps don't appreciate the bananas I give you. Someone needs to take care of you.

I'm your digital Johnny Morris.

[minerve 2] 31/7/2019 10:47

Share buy backs are good if done from sustainable operating profit and cash flow. They reduce the pieces of pie on which to share assets and earnings. All because the share price isn't lifted during the buyback execution doesn't mean it failed. In fact, if you are long-term investors you would want the share price to fall during the buyback period.

Don't believe me? Go and read what Buffet, Munger and Lynch think.

[minerve 2] 31/7/2019 10:35

I'm all for better English. Squires can teach Minerve. Who knows, in return, I might dish out some investment advice. It seems like most of you are in need of it! LOL

[likeawalrus] 31/7/2019 10:26

Here is the section regarding PPI. What I find curious is the last paragraph where it says Lloyds expects provisions of £20m per 1000 claims, I read that the average payout was about £3'500 but here they are suggesting £20k per claim! (includes admin?)

==========================================================================
The Group increased the provision for PPI costs by a further GBP650 million in the half-year to 30 June 2019, of which GBP550 million was in the second quarter, bringing the total amount provided to GBP20,075 million.

The charge in the second quarter is largely driven by the significant increase in PPI information requests (PIRs) which is likely to lead to higher total complaints and associated administration costs. The Group has historically received around 70,000 PIRs per week, of which around 9,000 converted into a complaint. Through the second quarter, the number of PIRs received increased to around 150,000 per week and in recent weeks around 190,000 per week and the Group has assumed that PIRs remain at this elevated level until the industry deadline at the end of August 2019. At the same time, the quality of PIRs has deteriorated and the Group expects this to continue. While PIR and complaint volumes remain uncertain, the impact of these additional volumes is expected to generate around 200,000 extra complaints, increasing the total expected complaint volumes from 5.6 million to 5.8 million.

At 30 June 2019, a provision of GBP1,083 million remained unutilised relating to complaints and associated administration costs. Total cash payments were GBP896 million during the six months to 30 June 2019.

Sensitivities

The Group estimates that it has sold approximately 16 million PPI policies since 2000. These include policies that were not mis-sold and those that have been successfully claimed upon. Since the commencement of the PPI redress programme in 2011 the Group estimates that it has contacted, settled or provided for approximately 54 per cent of the policies sold since 2000.

The total amount provided for PPI represents the Group's best estimate of the likely future cost. A number of risks and uncertainties remain including with respect to future complaint volumes, however the potential impact of these risks has reduced due to the proximity of the industry deadline. The cost could differ from the Group's estimates and the assumptions underpinning them, and could result in a further provision being required. These may also be impacted by any further regulatory changes, the final stage of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) media campaign and Claims Management Company and customer activity, and potential additional remediation arising from the continuous improvement of the Group's operational practices.

Deloitte LLP has been appointed to assist the Official Receiver with the submission of PPI queries to providers to establish whether any mis-sold PPI redress is due to creditors of bankrupts' estates. The Group has not made any provision in relation to this matter, which will remain under review.

For every additional 1,000 reactive complaints per week from July 2019 through to the industry deadline of the end of August 2019, the Group would expect an additional charge of approximately GBP20 million.