Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 10/12/2018 09:39

They are trying to poison minds...Brexit means Brexit...

[careful] 10/12/2018 09:37

EU rule that we can cancel Brexit.
Thing gradually looking more promising.
Lots of twists and turns until then.

[poikka] 10/12/2018 09:29

Got to hand it to these foreigners, they tend to get right to the nub of matters. Here's what nurse had to say this very morning - as far as I could make out.

"You know vot, dahlink, this EU theeng, they show you no goodvill ever, you think they no like you. Then they say, please, you stay, you ditch this Brexit theeng, yes? Dahlink, it just shows they vant only your money! Like me, hahaha."

Then it all went pear-shaped as she unbuttoned her crisp white uniform....That's why I'm running a bit late this morning.

[gotnorolex] 10/12/2018 08:40

Bet Blair had a hand in it!

[maxkisathickwunt] 10/12/2018 08:30

So what’s new here then?

[gotnorolex] 10/12/2018 08:21

ECJ breaking news "The UK can revoke article 50 unilaterally"

[cheshire pete] 10/12/2018 08:16

Bring it on and send in Arlene Foster, she'd eat him (Selmayr) for breakfast and spit out the dust.

[essentialinvestor] 10/12/2018 08:16

Times reporting the 48 letters may be reached this week.. ugly.

[xxxxxy] 10/12/2018 08:16

Socialists hatch RADICAL plan to TAKE DOWN European populism and enforce ENORMOUS taxes

A RADICAL new blueprint for Europe, spearheaded by former Jeremy Corbyn aide Thomas Piketty, has called for €800billion (roughly £717billion) of levies to challenge the rise of populism across the continent.
By SAM STEVENSON

[polar fox] 10/12/2018 08:13

Confirmed.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ruled that the UK can cancel Brexit without the permission of the other 27 EU members. BBC

[montyhedge] 10/12/2018 08:05

47p on the cards.

[maxk] 10/12/2018 08:00

EU official known as the 'monster' of Brussels 'wants to take over as chief Brexit negotiator'





By James Rothwell, Brexit Correspondent
9 December 2018 • 6:34pm



A shadowy EU official who once described Brexit as "stupid" and is known in Brussels as "the monster" has reportedly told friends he wants to take charge of trade negotiations with the UK.

Martin Selmayr, a former German lawyer who is infamous in EU circles for his Machiavellian management style, hopes to lead the Brexit talks after March 2019, according to the Sun on Sunday.

"Selmayr wants to send Barnier off into the horizon and leave it open who will head up trade negotiations with the UK," an EU source told the newspaper.

"He’s very keen to take that position for himself."

A European Commission spokesman dismissed the claims, adding that Mr Selmayr already had a "very fulfilling" job




More:

[montyhedge] 10/12/2018 07:53

Corbyn would have a banking tax.

[xxxxxy] 10/12/2018 07:07

Could be a good buying time for Looyds - I have The Confidence. Others may not be like that. Human variation. Take care and good luck. For me LLoy is a buy all the way down to 30

[xxxxxy] 10/12/2018 07:05

Thing with Corbyn - it will only last a CERTAIN time - basically a Sunset Clause.

Withdrawal Agreement TM variety will be forever giving billions to the sclerotic EUSSR. Have to think ahead for children and grandchildren. That is missing with TM - sadly. It is her missing dimension, Very sadly.


Apart from that - Brexit Party acoming

[opodio] 10/12/2018 06:59

How many dodgy retailers is the bank lending to and how many will be bust in new year?

hvae they lent to debenhams

[montyhedge] 10/12/2018 06:58

Don't worry boys Corbyn favourite to be next PM after May.Utilities, banks, telecoms, watch out if he does it.

[xxxxxy] 10/12/2018 06:51

The economics of leaving on March 29, 2019 with no Withdrawal Agreement
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: DECEMBER 10, 2018
The economic gains and problems with 29 March 2019 departure from the EU

Gains:
Fiscal stimulus
Positive second round effects of affordable tax cuts
Advantages from extra public spending
Lower tariffs on non EU trade
Confidence boost from ending Brexit uncertainty
Substitution effect for home production as a result of tariffs on EU sales into UK

Losses:
Friction at borders?
Non co-operation by some continental authorities?
Loss of confidence?

Why several scare stories are untrue

• Planes will fly
• EU companies will still be exporting food and medicines to the UK
• UK port authorities do not need to create new checks and delays
• Where paperwork is incomplete trade will continue – as with the EU’s failure to lodge a compliant schedule with the WTO

Fiscal stimulus

• Spend most of the £39bn cost of the Withdrawal Agreement in the first two years
• This will provide a 1.8% stimulus to GDP, or 0.9% a year

Second round effect of tax cuts

• Take VED back to pre 2017 levels and drop special diesel taxes. This should lead to a 15% gain in car sales and domestic output.
• Take Stamp Duties where currently higher back to pre 2016 levels. This should provide a stimulus to transactions in the housing market.
• Cut Income Tax to 18%, providing a general boost to take home pay and consumption.
• Estimated second round effects 0.2% of GDP

Public service improvement

• Extra recruitment into NHS, education and police
• Additional investment money into transport

Estimated little additional boost above fiscal stimulus counted above

Tariffs

If we adopted the EU tariff schedule for all EU as well as non EU items we would collect an additional £13bn of annual revenue. This should be given back as tax cuts for the consumers.

Better to cut the average EU tariff when imposing it as our tariff on the whole world.

1. Remove all tariffs from intermediate goods needed for UK manufacturing
2. Remove all tariffs that collect little revenue, or are at low rates
3. Cut or remove all food tariffs on food items we cannot grow for ourselves
4. Reduce food tariffs on non EU food that we can grow to a more realistic level when imposing it globally

Confidence effects

Business claims the uncertainty over what our future trading arrangements and tariffs will look like is holding back investment.

Early resolution should bring forward delayed investment. The extent of this has been exaggerated, but let us estimate a modest 0.2% gain to GDP from this source.

Trade friction on imports

• Imports are two thirds of our EU trade
• Trucks arrive at Dover full of goods – about half of these make the return crossing to Calais empty
• There is no need to place new inspections or complex customs arrangements on our borders in our ports, as we control these entrances to the UK.
• In the first instance, the UK can continue importing EU products as today, with an inspection regime at the factory or packing house of the originator, and inspection at the customer facility on arrival
• If the UK does want more port inspection in due course, this can be introduced with sufficient capacity to avoid long extra delays
• Cross channel traffic by ferry or tunnel could have new inspections in transit on board the train or ferry
• Exporters to the UK are not threatening to cancel supply on 30 March
• Most have contractual obligations to continue supplying after 29 March which are legally enforceable. It is difficult to see why this should cause extra costs to the UK.

JIT Delays

• JIT systems regularly deal with delays or long journey times
• Were transit times to go up the supplier would just be told to send it earlier
• There need to be no extra delays at UK ports importing the goods
• JIT is more susceptible to disruption through strikes / bad weather / crashes on main motorways / disruption to ferries or trains. This hits trade from within the EU as well as from outside whether we are members of the EU or not.

Export friction or loss

• The base case is continental customers will want UK exports on 30 March as on 29 March, and many are contracted to carry on buying them
• Tariffs will make mainly UK food and cars dearer, but they will make EU cars and food dearer into the UK
• Over half our EU trade will be tariff free on the EU’s schedule
• The high food tariff and car tariff is likely to reduce imports more than exports given the large imbalance in trade in these two categories
• It will lead to more domestic production for the home market
• On a worse case there could be loss of 0.6% per annum of GDP from less exports, partially compensated by a gain of say 0.3% of GDP from more home substitution for imports

Sterling

• The pound fell against the dollar and the Euro in the eighteen months before the referendum, and was marked down on the result
• Its future from here will be more determined by relative money policy and interest rates than by Brexit news. It has been relatively stable in the last few weeks when the odds of no Withdrawal Agreement have risen.
• The UK still has a competitive advantage from the lower values of the pound since 2015.
• The balance of payments will get a good boost from ending EU contributions which will help the pound.

Summary of Effects

Annual as a percentage of GDP, years 1 and 2 after Brexit on 29 March 2019

Fiscal stimulus +0.9
Secondary benefits of tax cuts +0.2
Confidence effects from ending uncertainty +0.2%
Worst case export loss -0.6%
Import substitution offset +0.3%

Total net gains +1.0% per annum

[xxxxxy] 09/12/2018 23:24

The data which shows the UK could be close to full employment

The British recovery from the 2008 recession has been accompanied by a more than halving of the unemployment rate from 8.5pc in 2011 to 4.1pc in the third quarter of this year. This “jobs miracle” has been turned into political points for both parties in the UK, with Theresa May boasting of the record levels of employment at the 2017 election and Labour bemoaning the rise of flexible work and zero hours contracts.

[xxxxxy] 09/12/2018 23:08

MAY is FAECES

EUSSR is FAECES

And if not careful the whole of the Conservative Party will be tarred with this.

Conservative Party on the slippery path to QUISLING PARTY
No Deal  = Great Deal

[xxxxxy] 09/12/2018 22:57

Crisis. What crisis? Predictions of a mass exodus of personal wealth from the UK as Brexit looms have simply not come to pass

By now, very rich overseas investors would be visibly pulling out and with a very obvious impact on the prime London property market. They are self-evidently not doing so. On the contrary. Every fall in the value of sterling since the referendum on EU membership has made prime London property ever cheaper and ever more attractive. That is why the property developer Nick Candy can remortgage his personal Knightsbridge penthouse to give it a value of £160 million. He perhaps reasons that a certain kind of wealth is not put off by whatever currently dominates the political and media agenda, but takes a longer view driven by different calculations.

Whether London is a financial trading centre or Northern Ireland has a hard, or soft border, matters little to people whose wealth is often dispersed in many countries. They are not here to trade particularly in any case. What they are buying is a rather different asset class: Safety, sophistication and stability.
…

Meanwhile, whilst there are signs of wealth advisers encouraging people to shift their liquid assets offshore, the evidence of take-up is unclear. Prime London property, which is a more visible, and therefore perhaps reliable, benchmark of sentiment, remains highly priced. We might conclude that for non-domiciled residents having wealth in the UK is still to have won the lottery, not to be taking part in one. At least for now.

Full article:

[tradejunkie2] 09/12/2018 22:55

CH4 : The Real Brexit Debate



Please enjoy with a cup of hot chocolate.

[buywell3] 09/12/2018 22:53

50p could get hit now as early as this wednesday

[buywell3] 09/12/2018 22:50

Somebody who thinks he is clever has stated nobody knows what the future holds

Here are two examples that make that statement erroneous ... smartypants also proves he is wrongly named as the FTSE 100 did fall below 7,000 and LLOY hot 62p much to many folks chagrin on this thread


I have since called LLOY to 60p, 55p and now have 50p on its nose



buywell3 - 05 Feb 2018 - 16:54:21 - 216250 of 219746 Black Beauty: A Recovering Quadruped - LLOY

LLOY chart suggests 62p coming within a month

smartypants - 23 Mar 2018 - 21:54:22 - 219754 of 239117 Black Beauty: A Recovering Quadruped - LLOY

buywell3 ... "FTSE 100 to 7,000 within next 4 weeks"?

Another poster really on the ball!
About as up to date as GYY