Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[wskill] 15/3/2024 14:09

Yes we should all sell up and join the greatest ponzi scheme the world has ever known Crypto will never do it myself just a passing thought where the cash is going.

Shares seem to oscillate from overbought to oversold look at the huge value given to this share in the recent past to where we are now the LT fund management has no value at all looking at the discount.

[spectoacc] 15/3/2024 13:34

Answers on the back of a £20 note.

I'll say one thing about RCP, in common with many - it's still falling/discount still rising despite buying back its own shares.

Makes me wonder where many of them would be without the continuous buy-backs.

We have to fall when S&P does - surely. Will we even feel like buying when that happens? I was a seller in March 2003, the absolute bottom of the bust from 2000, as it turned out :)

Money is still leaving the markets - quite a few pushing lows that they may yet dcb from (eg RCP), but if they go through...

[cc2014] 15/3/2024 13:18

Also OT but I've been pondering this question for some time without any progress.

There are any number of IT's running at large discounts. Some might be there for a reason but I'm sure we are all looking like one such as RIT mentioned by EI and wondering whether these are the bargains of a lifetime as a result of ZIRP then high interest rates or not.

The question I cannot get my head round is what happens if the S&P falls 10% (which I think it will). Will the NAV fall but the share price stay broadly the same so the discount closes or will the discount stay the same and the share price fall even further.

Because if pushed I'm thinking the share price will just fall and the discount won't close. Which makes investing very difficult.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong on that and all that's required to close the discount is for interest rates to fall.

Answers on a postcard please...

[essentialinvestor] 15/3/2024 10:49

Spec, RIT nearing a 30% discount, possibly worth a look..?

ADIG now over 30%.

Apologies a little off topic, although many UK IT are seeing discounts blow out, so perhaps has some relevance to aby LTI discussion.

[spectoacc] 11/3/2024 14:57

Some irritating poster on here was often making the point about quarter-billionaire Mr Train ;) (Eg #469).

Bottom line for L-T Ltd is, if performance keeps slipping (or keeps going nowhere relative to the market), the drip of AUM loss will continue. Can get away with a year, or 3, but when the 5 year record looks poor too? LTI's benchmark isn't the weak FTSE, it's MSCI World Index TR, which is an awful lot of US and Magnificent 7.

AUM gain easy during TINA, but considerably more difficult for all during cost-of-living crises.

LTI still has a price mind.

[essentialinvestor] 11/3/2024 13:18

Several newspapers highlighted NT's earnings in the context of recent underperformance - arguably not a good look.

[steve3sandal] 11/3/2024 13:13

Unfortunately AUM is down from £16.1B at 31 Dec to £15.4B 29 Feb. Approx £500K off the directors valuation of each LTL share. Until and unless AUM does stabilise never mind grow the improved SPs of the quoted shares won’t make much difference to the NAV. I think they need to talk about LTL AUM, business risk and how intending to manage this in the 31 Mar YE not just about how they arrive at Directors valuation of LTL. I won’t hold my breath.

[spectoacc] 09/3/2024 20:47

Seller does seem to be done for now, which is a pity as I'd like some more at c.20% (depending on how calculating L-T Ltd) discount. Ah well.

Out of interest, anyone in MUT? Been a bit of a dog lately (pun intended) but interesting to see a top 10 of:

RELX
ULVR
AZN
DGE
BP
SGE
Totalenergies
LSEG
Some abrdn Sterling fund
EXPN


Quite a few Train stocks there, & that's about 40-45% in that Top 10.

[porsche1945] 08/3/2024 09:18

The days when I owned this around 15 quid long gone, LT has been on a downward trajectory for years, the funds just are not very good and anything listed in the U.K. is hated anyway, why bother, buy for the yield?….but lose half your capital. Pointless, just because it’s been cut in half doesn’t mean it can’t go lower. Terminal I’m afraid.

[giltedge1] 06/3/2024 17:10

Looks like large seller now cleared, bit of a bounce at last!. LSEG, EXP & SAGE at highs. Good news as LSEG largest holding in group funds. Nintendo & Mondelez also doing well.

[chinahere] 06/3/2024 12:52

Thanks Flyer61 - great idea - that's something I haven't done for ages but I can see it is powerful for an illiquid stock.

[flyer61] 06/3/2024 11:03

chinahere

put a limit order on....see how you go.

If you value LTL as similar to CLIG then this remains very cheap.

[chinahere] 06/3/2024 10:52

Just as I am about to buy it jumps 5% :-(

[chinahere] 05/3/2024 17:12

Yes I agree about that - advisors would find it difficult selling something their client finds out is listed as a 'dog fund'. LT lost their 'Wealth 150' rating on Hargreaves too so there will be fewer people buying. Still it looks cheap.

If the discount can widen a bit to 40% please then LT Ltd. is in for free!

[cynicalsteve] 05/3/2024 16:54

At the weekend I read that Lindsell Train UK Equity Fund is now on Bestinvest's 'Spot the Dog' list. Financial advisors are simple creatures with an instinctive fear of lawyers so it's unlikely they would now recommend the fund to clients, they may even sell. This would mean a reduction in AUM for LT of course.
So maybe LTI is cheap for a reason. Or maybe the bad news is all in the price. Tempted to buy a few (but only a few).

[chinahere] 04/3/2024 18:20

Have stumbled across this and like the look of it.

I already hold the Lindsell Train Global Fund and am thinking it may make sense for me to swap it for this. I am hoping the intrinsic Lindsell Train Limited holding makes this a sane purchase but I know the 25% discount is a nice margin of safety.

Does anyone know what the unlisted Lindsell Train Limited is marked at? I read from someone that it was only on a P/E of 7. Is that right?

[flyer61] 04/3/2024 17:09

Cripes even I sold Estee Lauder when Fundsmith did....

[giltedge1] 04/3/2024 16:23

Bought the US fund a year ago up circa 10% + div okay, but still below index. Fund Made an error on buying estee lauder use to be top holding hopefully gone now. Rest of portfolio happy to have exposure. Let's hope FUM up or level on January.

[wskill] 04/3/2024 12:27

Thanks guys was looking on AJ Bells site and could not find the American fund .Bought a few today as 25% discount looks a little high .

[glavey] 04/3/2024 11:45

Look on the LT web-site.

[flyer61] 04/3/2024 11:42

FAIR ISAAC CORP 7.60%
S&P GLOBAL INC 5.71%
EQUIFAX 5.63%
INTUIT 5.22%
ALPHABET INC 5.17%
AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY 4.77%
ADOBE 4.64%
WALT DISNEY COMPANY(THE) 4.53%
ORACLE CORPORATION 4.47%
VISA

All stuff I'm happy to own.....

[wskill] 04/3/2024 10:44

Looking at the North American holding in the Trust what is it invested in cannot see it listed in funds /etfs or trusts

[flyer61] 02/3/2024 14:32

Seemed to fall off a cliff in the last hour of trade. Apart from one trade of 46 (and that is actually small) they were all single digit trades. Someone is selling at almost any price...Do they know something we don't??

I am reminded of Manchester and London when it was at a discount to NAV of 25% a year or so ago. I was minded to buy as 30% of the fund was Microsoft and I like buying MSFT at a discount. Didn't pull the trigger but have here as I feel the set up is the same. A collection of good Companies that are highly liquid at a substantial discount...more study of LTL required....maybe our board will say something but I am not holding my breath.

[giltedge1] 02/3/2024 08:26

Has been some good performers last 12 months RELX, SAGE, EXP, NINTENDO but underperformers negated these 20%+ gainers. Need LSEG back to £100, DGE to £35 & ULVR back to £45, to get Funds performance back on track, not impossible. Expect shakeup on announcement date in June. Unfortunately a big seller still around.

[jamielein] 01/3/2024 10:15

LTI may have the authority to buy back shares but they're not going to do it, if history is anything to go by.

They have 200,000 shares in existence and this has never changed.

There's obviously been a large seller here and they've been forced to sell at a sizeable discount due to lack of liquidity. Maybe they're worried about the long term future of Lindsell Train Limited, or maybe they're selling for completely unrelated reasons.

My hope is that LTI continue to pay out a similar dividend. I'm not here for the income, but I would like them to maintain their track record because I feel that the market will take that into account in the future.

When there's some more optimism, and if they can steadily increase their AUM over the next few years, then I would hope that LTI would return to a premium.

Just as a disclaimer, I have a large holding here. My view is that LTL is significantly undervalued. That's why I hold LTI. I don't feel strongly either way about the other portfolio holdings. I also have no idea whether I'm right or not.