Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 02/10/2023 12:29

* 10% share price fall last week on PZC post results - comment on some challenges repatriating
the equivalent of GBP 200 million held in Nigeria, in local currency -
should stress that is my interpretation of the comment in their FY statement.

FAB, given the relatively modest size of PZC, it may be a small part of the overall
FGT portfolio, smaller still now!.

I've put PZC back on a watch list but am not compelled to buy currently,
plus lots of others getting cheaper atm.

[steve3sandal] 29/9/2023 23:56

Never. It’s held in FGT. I haven’t looked at their Ubit Trust holdings. Go on I’ll ask why?

[fabius1] 29/9/2023 23:32

Does LTI still hold PZ Cussons? Thanks.

[giltedge1] 11/9/2023 08:36

Sage & Relx at ATH both 5x last 10 years, not helping lTI though, live in hope.

[giltedge1] 07/9/2023 12:16

DGE has doubled in last 10 years, which is what we should focus on, not short term volatility. Arguably a much better business than 10 years ago. Top selling brands all around the world. Just bought some Captain Morgan mixers, tastes good.

[essentialinvestor] 01/9/2023 10:07

My DGE holding is sagging to say the least, Pernod Ricard off 6% yesterday
on their update.

[steve3sandal] 01/9/2023 07:34

Thanks again for this colour on the discussion. Unprepared remarks are usually the most revealing.

[giltedge1] 31/8/2023 21:37

Regarding Dividend from LT, last year almost £12m this year maybe £10m although LT has £75m cash & may maintain. But FUM needs to return to £20B there abouts to keep receiving £12M from LT each year. So 2024 may be maintained through cash reserves & then pain in 2025 if FUM stays at £17B.
Re Specto LSEG was historic return last ten years from £10 to £83 + Divs. going forward portfolio predicted to move from £98m to £233m thereabouts if past performance repeated!. so hoping for 2.5x next ten years, Of course NT said he had doubts on this number himself, hoped to do better!.

[spectoacc] 31/8/2023 14:02

Thanks @giltedge1, interesting. Still seem like a pair who've had their day (I know many will disagree), who rode the bond proxy years superbly, and been fairly poor since.

Personally, I don't see the current big holdings - all giant co's - going up 6x. LSEG a £45bn co on a p/e of 25; DGE is a £73bn co on a p/e of 20; RELX £49bn, p/e 25; ULVR £102bn, p/e 18.

Those are UK growth ratings - fair enough - but there's no tech-style excess growth likely from those elephants (unless LSEG can become the new Bloomberg; RELX also a decent co in fairness). But DGE, ULVR are just solid, they're not Apple or Nvidia or Microsoft.

ULVR at £600bn? I don't see it.

[flyer61] 31/8/2023 09:45

Thanks giltedge1....when you say the dividend will be lower what's your gut feeling here.

[steve3sandal] 31/8/2023 09:20

Many thanks GE1. The share sales to employees will continue at low level noted. It is niggle in the performance context of historic NT & ML share picking but a big own goal when it looks like you’ve lost the knack for the past 3 years. Trust is not of the size or managed with cash drag for the usual BB, discount control actions so they have to nail stock selection. When it’s so concentrated they will either outperform or they won’t. I think you’re probably right about the current share price and discount being a good entry point though several stock holdings are trading into headwinds so I’m not buying any more just now!

[giltedge1] 31/8/2023 08:56

to continue as posted on phone in error. NT more financially savvy than ML (look as Japan fund performance he runs). Performance wise UK fund beat index last 3 years, Global below.
Currently 17.5B FUM, 65% pooled (retail clients) rest segregated portfolios. Salaries fixed %, so as profit falls cushioned, by declining salaries, although chance of dividend cut, not mentioned but LT dividend will be lower in 2023.
Questions on quarterly divs (dismissed by chairman), I asked about share buybacks & share split (dismissed again no chance.). questions asked on adding companies more tuned in to millennial's, Gregg's was mentioned as one example. Sorry Steve no chance to discuss with Chairman transfer of shares from LT owned by LTIT to staff, said will continue at low level. Came away thinking good price for new joiners, but will take a while to reach previous levels.

[giltedge1] 31/8/2023 08:35

Sorry to report AGM low key affair. Firstly NT & ML both apologised for poor returns last 3 years. ML gave summary of past performance. Junior member Ben gave presentation on great brands in portfolio. Mentioned for example Diageo owns 34% Moet Hennessy (Luxury champagne producer controlled by LVMH) LSE owns majority Tradeweb. Best was NT talk on last 10 years reminded, most shares in portfolio, doubled. Best LSE up 6x, actually higher than that, I checked. If same trend next 10 years our portfolio xLT would grow from 98m to 233m & yield 9% on today's value!. I think NT more savy tha

[steve3sandal1] 29/8/2023 18:37

Excellent Ge. I'm still puzzled why the company's cash on balance sheet which belongs to shareholders doesn't feature in the directors valuation methodology of the LT shares we own.

[giltedge1] 29/8/2023 16:13

More positive today sales at 900, need to get retail investors back on board.
Yes I am going to AGM, going to raise a few points made on this board, transfer to staff no hurdle rate, share split (LT split why not LTI?) & buyback, as low liquidity ideal candidate. unfortunately need 1000 to break even on his trade???.

[steve3sandal] 29/8/2023 13:53

If anyone is going to the AGM in London tomorrow it would be interesting to hear about what went on, Q&A, any noise or insights. Too far for me I’m afraid.

[mozy123] 29/8/2023 13:30

Maybe the market showing them that giving away our shares isn't very good for the trust share price.

[dickiehh] 26/8/2023 17:27

What on earth is going on here? Has this trust ever been at a discount like this?

[flyer61] 25/8/2023 11:27

You can buy at £851. Maybe the funds outflow at LT is much bigger than we think.

[essentialinvestor] 25/8/2023 10:21

How much is Lindsell worth?, the £ value of his purchases need to be viewed
in that context. As mentioned recently the LTI NAV discount should arguably be
at least double any discount at FGT.

[steve3sandal] 25/8/2023 10:06

They’ve certainly shot one foot off giving away % of our LTL asset each year without a performance related hurdle. Not an attractive background to draw retail investors which is probably the main marginal buyer seller here. Individual holdings all under current £growth challenges reading reports, Ex RELX. So ….contrarian. Current NAV maybe £950 Offer £900. Im not doing a Michael Lindsell again just yet. If we see 20% discount at the offer then I’d certainly have a look under the hood again.

[spectoacc] 25/8/2023 08:03

There's certainly a price I'd buy back in at, albeit not sure I know what. Been two small AT sells at 86,600 already this morning.

[flyer61] 15/8/2023 12:49

STA states

Suspect more about the amount of money continuing to leave the market, rather than anything LTI-specific.

and I very much agree with this. A friend who works customer facing at a regional building society that every second person is selling their funds and putting the money on deposit.

LTI at this sort of discount seems to me reasonable buying with the long term in mind.