Likewise Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 08/1/2025 12:06

Updates from LIKE and VCP today.

Both appear to be chugging along, except VCP carries less credibility in hitting forecasts as they have form in missing targets and not generating free cash flow. Credible commentators can't work out if there is any value in the equity and label it HIGH RISK. It continues to be a cracking good trading share though.

But that 10 year yield is spiking in a horrible way. I am sure the market is honing in on that. That must not continue or it will be profit warning central in this sector (and then companies with big debt will get annihilated) and there will be an even bigger sell off in the UK on top of the gloom already out there.

All imo
DYOR

[philly cheesesteak] 27/12/2024 13:13

Singer currently blocking all online trading here - there are only 1500 shares for sale at 17.5p with NT for anything more. Could get a nice santa run if anyone wants to get in for the early Jan trading update which should be very positive (as per my personal analysis above)

[philly cheesesteak] 18/12/2024 12:01

Been looking into this one after it was flagged by Lawrence Hulse on VOX Markets a couple of weeks ago;



Based on the update on 6th December it looks primed to beat full year revenue expectations, as it did last year(total sales to end November up 7.5% vs full year forecasts for 5.3%).

Some simple maths says that even if December sales are flat year on year, which appears unlikely given October + November were 11% ahead, then full year would come in at 6.9% ahead (7.5*11 = 82.5, 82.5 / 12 = 6.875). This would put full year sales at £149m vs £146.5m forecast.

Should sales retain the 11% growth trend then full year revenue would be 7.8% ahead and top £150m.

Other positives I like

1. Significant freehold property on the balance sheet - over £10m
2. Recent buying from US based Still Lake Value Partners - they will have done substantial DD
3. Strong share price seasonality - shares jumped from 16p to 20p in Jan 23 and topped out at 27p in March 23. Shares then ran from 17p in Nov 23 to 24p in Jan 24.
4. Increased revenue results in operational gearing

Based on the high probability of a revenue beat, I think we should get back over 20p if they do go ahead and beat.

No investment advice / DYOR of course.

[sphere25] 09/12/2024 11:22

No problem reval. Hardly anyone on these boards nowadays - feels like a completely different time. In the past you'd have got alot of replies already.

Ties in with what gswredland is saying too. Alot of the time nowadays it just feels very gloomy on most of AIM. I am sure many beyond AIM aren't feeling overly joyful either. There was a headline at the weekend by a shareholder in LTG (just agreed a takeover offer) describing UK markets as being diseased.

Not heard that one before!

They don't want to be named, but they're using very grim words to describe the state of play here, with companies almost having to agree to takeover offers to escape the gloomy UK public markets.

Clearly those takeover offers mean there is value here too. That video above from Schroders shows how cheap we are, but as for LIKE, I just sit and watch now.

It is just a waiting game to see how trading evolves and whether big buyers do step in to back the story here. You do naturally wonder why funds would get stuck into illiquid AIM shares, but we have to persevere too. They say value does eventually out.

It should be obvious with something with such low daily activity when someone does buy big here. Usually sticks out like a sore thumb.

So let's wait and see.

All imo
DYOR

[reval] 06/12/2024 17:38

I tell you what Sphere, here all, see all and say now’t, but what you say, says it it all quite frankly ! — thanks for your input.

[sphere25] 06/12/2024 16:32

One day Rodders, one day...

This time next year...

[gswredland] 06/12/2024 16:30

Trouble is funds won't buy into AIM stocks generally

[sphere25] 06/12/2024 15:00

We all know all trades are an exchange between buyers and sellers reval, but the news, chart and the way the trades hit the book can provide more insight. This one is just like alot of AIM shares.

They are just beaten up from previous higher valuations, and not doing alot overall, with a heavy overhang of large sellers (continued fund outflows so some forced redemptions, some stale bulls, maybe still some IHT selling post the Budget and others maybe just fed up with AIM) not allowing any sustained momentum higher.

You get little trading spikes higher and then the big sellers come in and nullify any bullish optimism. Those big blocks that hit at 15p on the 25th October are clearly a tell as to the gravity of the overhang of sellers. On the day, we see big prints and it is easy to sit and wonder what the hell is going on??!!?

Essentially, it just looks like someone stepped in to buy in size from the large available supply of shares, but not big enough to clear the sellers to cause the type of demand imbalance that can result in a re-rating. Clearly we found out afterwards it was a US fund (there is more commentary recently about US funds increasing exposure away from the barmy party over there to our moratorium, okay there are some good things happening here too like takeovers) buying here, but the sellers still rule the roost.

I'm here because I was sat watching those blocks of 250k, 750k etc hit yesterday and wondering if any whoppers could hit to clear sellers to allow at least a ping higher. There was no follow through, only a positive (or expected) update today. So now I'm sat watching to see if anyone steps in big to clear sellers again.

This post is long already, but there is an interesting video here:



Scroll to 25:30 and it actually shows data about floor covering's doing rather well.

There is alot of useful information in that video. Turns out Schroders bought Curry's because of that move in Computers and Telecoms.

Back to LIKE. Listening to Laurence Hulse at Onward.

Reasons they are buying here:

- Backing Tony Brewer (From the likewise website "47 years’ experience within flooring, gaining extensive industry knowledge and supplier relationships")
- Take market share with VCP and HEAD struggling
- Believing that Tony Brewer can get to £200m in sales @ 6% margin to get to EBIT at £12m
- Eight times multiple to get close to £100m market cap so a doubling of the share price from today

I don't know how that all plays out and how close they get to those big targets. If I see some whoppers hit at some point in the future, I will have a go. It really needs more funds to get behind the story and buy in to try and clear those big sellers.

Better stop there, but yeah, there is enough food for thought regardless of whether folk are short term, long term or even just fed up with AIM.

Something for everyone!

All imo
DYOR

[julianlau] 06/12/2024 09:31

Total sales revenue rose by 11% during these two months, increasing the year-to-date gain to 7.5%. Likewise Floors delivered particularly strong results, with sales up 18.8% in October and November and 15.3% year-to-date.


[...]

[my retirement fund] 25/10/2024 22:26

It gives excellent visibility of the worth of the real company. 10% of the company just changed hands at 15 pence per share. That's a valuation of 36M. Clearly you can see the small offerings market makers are willing to make to small private investors is horrifically overpriced! Still, given the stock barely trades and is quite illiquid, one shouldn't be too surprised

[reval] 25/10/2024 20:05

26m shares supposedly sold at 15p, yet 100 shares bought at 16.25p —- daft, doesn’t stack up and I never know whether a sale is a sale, “ likewise “ whether a buy is a buy either !!

[tole] 25/10/2024 18:32

That's quite some volume that's gone through today.

[gswredland] 25/9/2024 07:29

Thank you William.
I have just re read the statement from May. Looking positive and I doubt whether things have radically changed.
Looking from the sidelines. Sold a while ago

[william127] 24/9/2024 19:35

Stockopedia has forward PE at 12.6

[gswredland] 24/9/2024 14:19

What is the PE here I wonder?

[my retirement fund] 18/6/2024 09:19

The chairman dumping at 16p looked a wise move as the shareprice continues to crater. Wonder if the AGM will bring news of a new placing?

[reval] 18/6/2024 05:15

AGM tomorrow the 19th June, long suffering shareholder here with everything crossed and hoping for some positive news, “ likewise “ all the rest of the shareholders!

[my retirement fund] 28/5/2024 22:49

Another 500K sold at 15.75p and a further 500K sold at 15p after hours. Clearly another seller out there !

[william127] 28/5/2024 12:59

Heavily indebted? Not my definition of Heavily indebted.

[pictureframe] 28/5/2024 11:59

An AIM company, heavily indebted (check out the interest cover!) and the chairman dumping stock?

What could possibly go wrong?

[my retirement fund] 28/5/2024 11:53

I would imagine he's done well to find a buyer for that lot at 15.9p. He has still got another 3 million left to sell.

[my retirement fund] 28/5/2024 09:10

He's probably getting out before the next humungus equity dilution

[reval] 28/5/2024 08:21

—- oe even Web !!

[reval] 28/5/2024 06:53

Why has Chairman sold 2 million shares, £320k’s worth?? — talk about tangled Webb !!