Lidco Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 02/11/2020 08:51

Well, timing is everything - less than two weeks since I exited!

Well done, everyone.

[molatovkid] 02/11/2020 08:05

Take that! I bought these only to see them tank immediately.....so to get out in this position is fine by me.

[donald pond] 02/11/2020 07:19

Oh well, 12p a share is a good start to the week

[7767] 25/10/2020 12:36

Does anyone understand the current share selling, continuous elling for 4/5 days but one big buy of 750,000 ?????

[1pencil] 23/10/2020 08:19

Customer overstocking is something to be aware of, lots of panic buying in the first half of the year resulting in oversupply in many industries.

Even with Covid still active it may not be sufficient to soak up excess capacity.

[effortless cool] 22/10/2020 12:47

It was a bit of a struggle with liquidity, but I have finally completed exiting from my holding.

Having analysed the figures and the prospects, I don't believe that this business has any value at all as a stand-alone entity. The brief flurry of optimism from a COVID-driven 2020 H1 profit has been suppressed by the loss that will follow in a mediocre H2. Further, it is now apparent that most of the H1 growth came from non-HUP sales and deferred revenue at end of the period was very disappointing, standing 27% below the position at Jan 2020.

The outlook does not seem sufficiently positive to drive revenue sharply higher, and I forecast further losses in 2021 H1 and 2021 H2.

The business could be profitable as a unit within a bigger player, since that would allow a considerable reduction in operating expenses and the big hope must be that its IP has sufficient value that someone may buy it with a view to committing a big marketing budget to drive market share. Management and broker presentations have emphasised the value created for shareholders through other transactions in the sector. My concern here is that this suggests that the sector is already crowded and, since LID has been around and vulnerable for some time, perhaps indicates that big sector players do not see great value in the LID IP. In any case, I don't consider holding onto to something in the hope that some other business might take it over to be a viable investment strategy.

I have taken a sizeable loss here; I hope that continuing shareholders fare better.

[energeticbacker] 13/10/2020 18:40

Starting to look promising, although it has taken a long time coming since listing in 2001 at 140p per share (mkt cap £99m). Covered in Investor's Champion's latest update

[owenski] 13/10/2020 10:27

Not in here, and a brief look over results, they look quite decent to me and it appears they are now in profit?? Shall have a deeper look later.

[gbenson1] 13/10/2020 08:26

They were a good set of results but disappointed that US sales have fallen, did they take their eye off the ball while moving out of Osman?

[7767] 13/10/2020 08:24

Don't get the selling on good results?????

[molatovkid] 13/10/2020 07:18

Excellent results!

I agree with the double figure share price!

[sabre6] 12/10/2020 11:34

SP soon be in double figures

[effortless cool] 12/10/2020 10:48

Encouraging strength ahead of the interims tomorrow .... decent volumes, too.

[buywell2] 24/9/2020 02:38

POST REMOVED

[buywell2] 24/9/2020 02:09

POST REMOVED

[trentendboy] 21/9/2020 07:32

Doomedtex report poor resultsCash running out More dilution? Not a good time to be raising more money

[buywell2] 19/9/2020 01:49

POST REMOVED

[buywell2] 19/9/2020 01:45

POST REMOVED

[effortless cool] 14/9/2020 18:09

LID covered in this note from Progressive highlighting businesses with high proportions of recurring revenue:

[microscope] 11/9/2020 10:46

I note that all recent buywell3 posts on both threads have been removed.... ;)

[aversion] 09/9/2020 12:09

That's a decent point 7767.

Every share has its price, and I am watching

[7767] 08/9/2020 12:31

It's not so much the monies from the sale of the units it's the long term revenue for the HUP that accompanies the sale of each unit.

[microscope] 03/9/2020 22:38

Ultimately I'm most interested in valuation and scalability of the business.

I can live with 20 million plus valuation, if for example I think that they can make 1 million profit within, say, 12-18 months.

Even though I have reservations on that score, if I can find reasons to believe that they can increase sales and margins to a level that means growth can be genuine and sustainable then it still has investment interest.

The spike in sales from Covid, it seems, isn't being maintained and looks to me unlikely to be repeated.

Also I can't see that sepsis for example is going to be a driver of further significant growth.

Fantastic and worthwhile product, but more an ethical investment than a financially justifiable one would be my conclusion at this stage.

[mrc2u] 03/9/2020 07:48

Founder & ex CEO selling shares can't be that good a sign. Although most of the original founders (the Lintin brothers) got out years ago at wildly higher prices.Why did he sell when H1 so strong? All a one off?MrC

[multibagger] 25/8/2020 20:24

Re profit - we may creep over the line and may be profitable this financial year (here's hoping anyway)and some considerations that help me head to this tentative conclusion.

*We have had unprecedented Q1 and a strong Q2 trading revenue wise

*We have moved location from a Central London manufacturing, warehousing and office base recently - so possibly some savings on rent and associated costs

*Countries across the world are slowly opening up and that will allow our directly employed sales people and sales partners to make face to face visits

*Our own NHS may be buying more LID equipment and its use/value in front line clinical care would have been shared across clinical networks

*Capital restructuring and legal costs re share premium - costed circa £30k in another company that I am invested in- why would LID spend that money to be able to pay dividends, if there is no real profit to pay the dividends from in the near future ?

All in all, the market may warm to our performance in due course and that could attract a takeover bid.

10 Sep 2019: Baxter acquires Cheetah (competitor with 10% US market share, revenues approx $30m pa, about 6x revenues, and loss making) for about $190m upfront and a further $40m contingent on performance.


Using the above as a ball park/guideline, and if we hit £10m annual LID revenues, that could translate to a buyout price of LID at approx 24.5p per share. Remember Cheetah was loss making - so if are profit making when we get taken out, I suppose that could attract a further premium.

Anyway, just my musings, as always best DYOR :)