Latham (james) Share Discussion Threads

[gnome3] 26/7/2024 07:49

I think the Family holdings are quite a bit less than that c3479z. According to Stockopedia, there are Family holdings of a little over 20% (it lists holdings above around 2%). There seem to be retail holdings of around 70%. Maybe that's why it's difficult for Institutions to build a decent holding; they have to buy in the market.

[c3479z] 26/7/2024 07:32

Family holdings over 50% and the rest held tightly by individuals and Close, not much stock about in advance of the 71p dividend going ex next week.

[gnome3] 26/7/2024 01:32

I can't believe the lack of Institutional Investor interest in this share, given its track record. Close Brothers almost have the field to themselves.

[c3479z] 25/7/2024 17:09

close asset management accumulated over 100000 shares holds over 6% now.

[wad collector] 14/7/2024 22:42

IC review the results and have changed their Nov23 hold to BUY at 1205p.

[c3479z] 09/7/2024 12:13

sp angel, the only coverage suggests virtually no change in cash balance at the end of the next financial year, compared with this year's accounts, even after payment of the special dividend with steady financial returns elsewhere and a possibility of improvement on the forecasts should business pick up in the second half.

[davebowler] 06/7/2024 16:36

Mentioned here...hTTps://investorschampion.com/channel/podcasts/episode-25-of-the-investors-champion-podcast

[c3479z] 27/6/2024 09:42

may be you were right gnome- could have made a well-considered acquisition or issued redeemable B shares for a capital return
agree very well-invested company in plant, and lots of freehold property, terms and well run company with a loyal workforce and simple business model.

[gnome3] 27/6/2024 08:28

Well, you got your special dividend c3479z. That's a total final dividend of 5.8%, ex-divi on 1st August. They still managed to increase cash flow by 20%, so we're sitting on 30% of the market cap in cash. I detected a slightly more positive vibe for the outlook statement too, and that's from a company that's made a habit of under-promising. Very solid and well-managed company just doing what they do best.

[cwa1] 27/6/2024 08:06

Taxable unless held in an ISA, of course

[c3479z] 27/6/2024 07:27

good results
revenue below forecast 366 to 395
profit, eps, cash balances, dividend well above forecast. so, margins and cash flow better than expected,
outlook fair to good,
total final divi of 71p including special of 45p unfortunately all taxable in UK for UK holder.

[gnome3] 22/6/2024 03:57

Personally, I'd like to see them use some of their cash pile for a few well-considered acquisitions. That feels like the route to go to make a long-term compounder out of this company.

[c3479z] 21/6/2024 23:16

Results due next week,? any chance of a return of capital/special divi, preferably tax efficient return of capital via a mechanism similar to that being used by NSI. Fair observation by gnome in post below.

[c3479z] 23/4/2024 14:01

s p angel reiterates today eps of around 96p and t/o of 374m year end cash of 71m, but no increase next year, likely divi for this year of around 28p, 28p wonder if there would be any chance of a special divi? mentions that they're having to hold more stock due to longer supply chains because of trouble in Red Sea and some smaller competitors are feeling the pinch and dumping lower priced product at marked down price...also uncertified timber coming in from Europe, wonder if some of that originates from Russia? Overall, moderately positive and as anticipated.

Would add that LTHM is well-positioned- exceptionally well-invested company, holds mainly freeholds of depots some last valued ?before 2000 I believe and very strong trade relationships and balance sheet.

[davebowler] 23/4/2024 13:53

SP Angel research -
Forecasts maintained:
We are leaving our forecasts unchanged (FY24E PBT: £25.7m). We are forecasting a 6pp rise in the Group tax rate to 25% in FY24E but the impact of this on earnings is mostly offset by our projected rise in interest income to £2m. Our PBT forecast yields EPS of 96p in FY24E. Investment summary: Our PBT forecast represents a material decline from that delivered in FY23A of £44.5m but this merely represents a reversion to normal market conditions post COVID-19, a period in which the company was, in our view, over-earning from abnormal market conditions. The share price is now only 20% down from its 2022 peak of 1400p which arguably indicates that the market recognised at the time that trading conditions were unsustainable. The earnings base of the business, however, is materially higher than the pre-covid years of 2019-2021A (average PBT £16.5m over those three years). With a FY24E earnings multiple 12x, a modest discount to the overall market, c£71m of net cash and a sustainable dividend yield of 2.5%, we continue to rate the stock as Buy. Price Chart (p) Source: hl.co.uk Special Sits Research Simon Strong [e-mail] [phone] Equity Sales Richard Parlons [phone] Abigail Wayne [phone] Rob Rees [phone] Grant Barker [phone] Stock Data Ticker (AIM) LTHM LN Fiscal Year End 31 March Share Price Price Target 1160p 1600p Market Cap £232.5m EV Dividend Yield £166.5m 2.5% Yr High/Yr Low 1300p/955p inf

[kneecaps2] 28/3/2024 16:29

Alter you are a newboy! I first invested in this super company nearly 29 years ago and they have performed exceptionally well and I am sure this will continue well into the future.

[alter ego] 28/3/2024 15:43

I've held LTHM getting on for 14 years and believe they are very conservative about forecasts but equally focussed on managing the business for the long term. It's a family business of course so plenty of skin in the game and a wealth of experience too.

[davebowler] 28/3/2024 15:12

The mkt cap of £227m is only a bit higher than the last balance sheet NTAV of £202m. So at some point LTHM shareholders should receive a bonus from special divis, buybacks, etc.

It’s difficult to think of any other small cap with a balance sheet this ridiculously strong, so LTHM shares are absolutely copper-bottomed, for investors who want to sleep at night.

I have to stay at GREEN, due to this immense financial strength, and reasonable valuation (providing future profits don't slip)

[c3479z] 28/3/2024 13:31

agree gopher,
ought to be reasonable value on p/e of around 11 or less with almost a third of the cap backed by cash and now no pension deficit.

[gopher] 28/3/2024 12:02

Reasonable trading statement given sector is bit depressed at the moment, they were never going to beat last year bumper results.

[c3479z] 19/3/2024 20:13

at the Blackrock Throgmorton AGM, Dan Whiteside suggested that builders must be near or at their nadir, so has been investing in selected industrials and housebuilders, rmi merchants eg Rotork, Grafton, Bellway, Redrow, Howden, Gleeson, Crest Nicholson= may be the last not so clever....
could also apply to the likes of Latham with one-third of mkt cap in cash?

[1c3479z] 14/2/2024 21:59

bigger turnover in the shares yesterday,
so some loose stock around now,

[1c3479z] 07/2/2024 22:29

big turnover in the shares today, by LTHM standards.

[davebowler] 07/12/2023 16:54

SP Angel brokers-
Other side of the hump.
As market conditions have normalised, so too has LTHM’s earnings base. Operating margins have reduced now to a sustainable level and one from which the Group’s strategy of widening and increasing throughput can have a beneficial impact. Current markets conditions In H2E have stabilised and the Group’s increasing market share in lower value products is helping to offset any cyclical risk. We are Buyers. Key Highlights: ▪ Normalised returns. Group revenues reduced 11% YoY to £190.9m in H1A reflecting a high proportion of lower value products in the sales mix and more a competitive pricing environment. Volumes of business were largely unchanged YoY. ▪ Input prices falling. The price of both timber and panel products have seen prices fall in the first half of FY24E but the rate of decline is now slowing. Gross margins declined 260bp YoY to 16.8% reflecting the change in business mix and pricing environment. ▪ Overheads unchanged. Notably, overheads were down YoY despite the current inflationary environment. Combined sales, distribution costs and admin expenses declined 1.3% YoY to £17.6m. Interim operating profit fell 36% YoY to £14.5m, reflecting the reduced revenue profile and softer gross margins, leaving operating margins in H1A at 7.6% (versus 11% in the prior period). Finance income rose materially to £2.1m reflecting a higher deposit rate environment. Diluted EPS of 61.4p fell 35% in line with the decline in operating earnings. The interim dividend has been increased to 7.75p (+7% YoY). ▪ Strong balance sheet. Free cash flow in H1A amounted to £9.1m (FCF margin: 4.8%) leaving net cash closed at £66m (+5% YoY) as at September, equivalent to 330p per share. The Group pension scheme is now in surplus (£11.2m, +55% YoY) and the company will now cease its annual deficit funding of £3m pa. Forecasts maintained: We are leaving our forecasts unchanged (FY24E PBT: £25.7m). This figure is net of a small reduction in forecast gross margin to 17.0% (from 17.5%) but an upgrade in net interest income to £2.0m which allows for some working capital absorption in H2E. Post tax profits in H1A of £12.4m cover 65% of our full year forecast which we feel is conservative given the traditional low seasonality of the business (2023 H1A revenues 55% of total). Trading outlook: Current trading in H2E reflects market conditions similar to those seen in H1A i.e. both input and output prices, together with volumes, largely unchanged. Project deferrals rather than cancellations are a feature of UK market conditions but LTHM has been increasing its market share in lower value products to help offset this risk. The market remains competitive with European manufacturers exporting more to the UK which is seen to be having more robust trading conditions. Competitive environment: The UK market has seen some consolidation activity with PE acquiring comparable businesses to LTHM which has introduced some pricing volatility. LTHM however remains a very material player with c15% market share in the UK is well positioned with its strong balance sheet to benefit from any niche consolidation opportunities which may arise. Investment summary: The boom period seen in fiscal 2022/3 has now eased into what may be regarded as more normalised market conditions. The earnings base of the business in FY24E and beyond is best placed in the context of that generated in the years prior to COVID-19. The years 2018-2021A generated average net income of £13.1m and so our forecast of £19.3m in FY24E therefore represents a meaningful long-term improvement over the returns generated historically. Equally we can reasonably expect a gross margin profile to return to historical averages of around 17.5%. Management has a worthy organic growth strategy of widening the product base flowing through its distribution centres and increasing throughput. With net cash equivalent to around a third of the current share price, the stock trading on a FY24E earnings multiple of 11x with a highly sustainable dividend yield of 2.6% (with 3x cover), and the earnings multiple trading at a c25% discount to the AIM index (preextraordinary items), we are Buyers.

[mesb48] 30/11/2023 07:53

Pension payments ending, 7% div increase, lots to like. Feels to me like the ‘in line’ forecast comment is at risk of being beaten more than missed, but I guess they don’t like to come across as optimists.