Kier Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 11/7/2017 17:15

Yes, the relatively small reaction to Carillion's woes says the market thinks Kier is clean. That was helped by Kier's taking exceptional costs on contracts and listing them in its pre-close statement of 28 June.

Fwiw, I think Kier will be ok. Pension deficit is much smaller than Carillion's. Borrowings are less than Carillion's. No new losses from contracts, unlike Carillion.

Notwithstanding all that, I sold out today. Reason? Having been lucky and bought during the recent dip, I was at a small profit - so could exit pain-free. I think that poor sentiment from the Carillion affair may dog Kier and others for a while.

Business confidence is being shaken by the Brexit uncertainty. There may be good opportunities ahead for this cash, if the market weakens further.

Good luck to holders. :-)

[stewart64] 10/7/2017 19:35

Problem contracts seem to go with the territory. Tendering is too competitive and a 3% operating margin leaves no margin for error.

Could have been knocked hard by Carillion profit warning which also operates on a 3% margin. Clearly the Market thinks Kier is different.

[ed 123] 07/7/2017 12:28

Also, UK is to spend £1.3 billion more on road improvements. (Old news - 2016 Autumn Statement)



Kier should pick up some of this, as it has significant road capability.

If Kier can avoid any new exceptionals/problem contracts, the medium term could be good. Broker targets of 1500/1600p attainable?

[grahamburn] 07/7/2017 11:46

Carillion and Kier Dubai jobs secure £490m government backing
6 JULY, 2017 BY JACK SIMPSON

The government has provided more than $635m (£490m) in guarantees to Carillion and Kier to support the delivery of three major infrastructure projects in Dubai.

[philanderer] 29/6/2017 10:03

Numis upgrades ‘transformed’ Kier Group


Numis has upgraded Kier Group (KIE) after a transformative period that should pave the way for organic growth at the property company.

Analyst Howard Seymour upgraded his recommendation from ‘add’ to ‘buy’, with a target price of £15.10 on the stock. The change was made in light of Kier’s full-year update, which provided a positive picture across all divisions.

At the time of writing, the stock was trading up 3%, or 37p, at £12.55.

‘After what has been a transformational period of acquisitions and portfolio simplification which is now in place, we see management comments as signalling that we should look to a period of sustained organic growth across the group as benefits of strong market positions and good net investment in property and residential bear fruit,’ he said.

[speedsgh] 29/6/2017 07:37

Numis upgrades 'transformed' Kier Group - HTTP://m.citywire.co.uk/money/the-expert-view-abf-dixons-carphone-and-boohoo/a1029137Numis has upgraded Kier Group (KIE) after a transformative period that should pave the way for organic growth at the property company.Analyst Howard Seymour upgraded his recommendation from 'add' to 'buy', with a target price of £15.10 on the stock. The change was made in light of Kier's full-year update, which provided a positive picture across all divisions.At the time of writing, the stock was trading up 3%, or 37p, at £12.55.'After what has been a transformational period of acquisitions and portfolio simplification which is now in place, we see management comments as signalling that we should look to a period of sustained organic growth across the group as benefits of strong market positions and good net investment in property and residential bear fruit,' he said.

[philanderer] 28/6/2017 17:26

One more..

28th june Canaccord buy tp 1600p

[cwa1] 28/6/2017 09:13

Seemed solid enough to me. Breathed a sigh of relief when I saw them. Steady as she goes.....

[ed 123] 28/6/2017 09:00

Gone blue. +15p, while FTSE100 is minus 37 points. Slow start but now moving as I'd expected.

I see three broker recommendations today, viz: Liberum and Peel Hunt both retain 'buy'. Numis upgrades to 'buy'.

Happy holder.

[ed 123] 28/6/2017 08:04

Year end trading update has been released today.

It reads well.

They have set out the non-underlying items since 30 June 2015. Next year they show zero non-underlying impact on the P&L and minus £12million cash impact. I like this apparent end to non-underlyings. We will see what the real business does.

Importantly, the dividend looks safe. Yield is about 5.5% at 1220p. The market continues its hunt for reliable income.

8:04am muted market reaction, minus 4p. I'd expected some positive move.

[ed 123] 14/6/2017 14:12

Yes, it looks like there has been agreement with the DUP. Announcement very rightly delayed out of respect for those affected by the London fire.

The Maybot's days as PM are numbered, imo. No warmth, no heart behind the words, lacking common sense. Two ways I can see it going, (1) The Conservatives announce a leadership contest once the House rises (20th July), getting a new one in place over the Summer. or (2) They leave Maybot to have her name forever associated with the final Brexit deal that goes before Parliament - there is certain to be lots of dissatisfaction. After that, the Conservatives have their leadership contest.

Impact on stock market? Internationals much less affected (Good move by yourself, imo). Domestically oriented stocks more affected, ie. higher volatility, but can't say which would do well, atm.

Kier? Yes, it's picking up. If there's no further political twist and the update on 28th June is to expectations, I'd expect Kier to rise further. It can afford its dividend and its end markets are firm enough. The stockmarket continues to seek reliable income.

[stewart64] 14/6/2017 11:44

Looks like I might have been wrong, the Markets seem to be giving the thumbs up to the DUP alliance...the 250 has rallied.Kier prkbably set fair.

However, I have hedged a bit out to internationals anyway today...randgold, shell, imperial brands, zeneca etc. lest Maybot does something else stupid to panic the market.

[ed 123] 12/6/2017 13:57

Hi Stewart64.

Yes, we are in difficult times to weigh up investments.

However, the uncertainty throws up opportunities.

My view, fwiw, dipping down to 1170p, Kier was oversold when compared to broker targets. After this recent rise (now trading at 1206p) it remains well below even the lowest of brokers' shareprice targets (1410p). Also, rsi had dipped under 30, saying 'oversold'. Rising nicely today, with good support on level 2.

In an era of low interest rates, the current yield of about 5.5% pa also gives support.

There's a year end trading update due on 28th June. Hopefully that confirms expectations for this year and holders look forward to next year, in which earnings are forecast to rise by about 11%. If no new nasties, I'd expect further support from that date.

Regarding the election result, I'd say a slight softening of austerity is the most likely outcome of a DUP supported Conservative government. In any event, much of Kier's near term work is already committed, and there is a backlog of infrastructure work due the years of austerity. I can't see there being even deeper cuts from here.

Anyway, different views make a market. Good luck.

[stewart64] 12/6/2017 10:35

Kier has weathered this result better than I expected, probably the worst outcome of all for Kier because at least a Progressive Alliance would have invested in infrastructure.

The country is in a black mood other than those that rely on magic money trees ans sentiment has crashed. I feel the FTSE 250 hasn't fully digested the implications of the result, we could easily be looking at 18,000 on the 250 in the next few weeks.

[ed 123] 08/6/2017 16:44

Change of sentiment here today. Steady rise in the afternoon, producing a nice hammer on the candlestick chart.

I was one of those who jumped the gun today, bought at 1178p ........ but will regret it if the election produces other than a Conservative government.

[ed 123] 05/6/2017 13:58

At a critical point, chartwise (1215p). Either a double bottom and it bounces up or it sinks lower, towards 1050p.

Any thoughts, Eriktherock?

[ed 123] 03/6/2017 14:45

Hi Eriktherock.

It's turning south again. You may get your profit.

Are you looking for a drop to ~1050p?

[ed 123] 30/5/2017 23:12

Truly sorry to hear of your parlous condition.

Having a whip-round. Hope to raise enough for roll of sticking plaster and a pair of high heels. Any preference as to colour?

[eriktherock] 30/5/2017 19:47

Body detached from the Head. Short from here > 1250ish

[stewart64] 20/5/2017 10:06

Indeed the brokers have had this as one of their hottest tips right the way up at £15 and right down to the recent near 20% drop. As a poster said earlier a contrarian approach is sometimes required, a share with good prospects is probably overbought and one with a negative rating may be oversold. Some of my best recent performances have been from poorly rated shares such as Standard Life, Lloyds, Legal and General and Capita.

At the end of the day Kier may now have a run at twenty quid, but analysts got their target wrong a couple of months ago , because a 20% share fall is huge and why load up at £15 when £12.10 would be on offer a few weeks later.

[ed 123] 19/5/2017 17:06

Quandary.

JP Morgan have Kier as their sector favourite, yet WorldQuant have been (and possibly still are?) short selling Kier. I can understand the former's position but I wish I knew just why WorldQuant were short selling. Have they seen something or are they just following momentum? If it were just momentum trading, then I would be more confident about buying - 5.7% dividend yield and possible share price recovery. I hesitate because they may have some other reason and may keep selling.

Today's trading was encouraging for holders, with the afternoon reversal hinting at a possible blue finish. But ... the price weakened over the last 10 minutes, so seller was still evident.

Summer coming and if 'Trumpflation' doesn't live up to expectations the US markets could give back some gains.

Hmmm ... maybe not a good time for me to be brave here?

[glawsiain] 19/5/2017 14:20

I know what you mean Stewart. I'd like to see some sign of it calming down and bottoming out before I'd consider jumping in.

[stewart64] 19/5/2017 13:41

Closing in on 1200 and the 20% collapse..when do you catch a falling knife.

[mastey] 17/5/2017 22:17

Gents Kier is one of the few U.K. Cos that is totally protected re Brexit. It's in prime position to benefit post the Tory landslide. Fill your boots , I will be

[stewart64] 17/5/2017 15:41

My only consolation Glawsiain is that it has fallen another 3-4% since I sold. Appears to be in complete capitulation mode and 1200 is probably a good call where support and recovery will be found.