Kier Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 11/4/2019 10:04

Ltcm1

Absolutely correct. As noted in the last few days, the cost of pitching can be very high, the chances of winning are enhanced by quoting low, penalty clauses are a problem, plus slow payment by clients negatively affect cash flow.

This business environment isn't going to go away quickly.

Also, as you say, the share price performance has been pretty dire.

[gettingrichslow] 11/4/2019 09:51

Ltcm1, I think you're spot on. The strategy has all the hallmarks of being a slightly desperate one. They're not being selective enough in which contracts they're going for. In this market you have to be really selective and not over-reach. This strikes me as pretty obvious so I'm surprised it isn't obvious to others?

[ltcm1] 11/4/2019 09:45

Why don't we get back to talking about Kier? Let's start from the basics. This is a share that has been in serious decline for two years now plus hasn't performed atall well since 2014. I believe the starting point for our discussion should be this - are we looking at a company that never really made much profit in the first place? Is the business model flawed?

To me the stratagy of making yourself massive and going for every building contract that moves is a losing one, surely this is a company that needs to shrink by about two thirds and focus on their most profitable activity.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 23:01

updowntrader

I noticed you are fairly new on this site. If you want some help on how to manage risk by selecting the right trade size then let me know. I don't trade much nowadays. I used to momentum trade.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 22:58

He just can't let it go can he? He is on holiday! Christ, talk about seriously deranged mind. I couldn't resist checking what he has written, trying hard to discredit me because he is envious of my investing skills. If people want to check my BATS go and look at the thread. I believe I made a comment around the time I bought, but I don't see why I need to make a running commentary. So far we have heard nothing from getting about Kier. Make your own mind up whether he provides better commentary than I. No loss to me quite frankly. LOL

My first tranche in Kier was much higher than 460. My average is now below the rights issue price and getting lower. Will add if this makes further moves downwards pending no changes to the status quo of course.

Kier are second largest construction company in the UK by turnover....

[gettingrichslow] 10/4/2019 22:23

For the record, Minerve actually declared he was buying Kier with his Burford sale. He sold BUR at around 1820 and bought Kier at around 460 so he is well down relative to if he'd stayed in Burford. But if he is an expert in anything, he is an expert in re-writing history, hence the sudden BATS pronouncement - it doesn't fool anyone (except UpDownTrader perhaps!!)

[updowntrader] 10/4/2019 22:06

Minerve. Don't let them drag you down. Block out the haters. You opinion is listened to by many. Everyone on here should try to be more constructive instead of battling with each other, especially when the truth is nobody actually knows what is going to happen with Kier.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 18:10

Make sure you find yourself with a chair when the Burford music stops. Rather you than me.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 18:05

Yes, and I sold Burford, bought BATs and made 20% (+ divs) in 4/5 months, plus similar profits on domestic stocks since December, whilst you lot were watching the Burford paint dry.

LOL

[trident5] 10/4/2019 17:30

GRS - Minerve is a man who sells Burford to buy Kier, solely for the benefit of amusing us.

[gettingrichslow] 10/4/2019 17:20

Minerve, should we put our pants on before our trousers or trousers first, then pants?

[trident5] 10/4/2019 17:12

Should you sell all at once?

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 16:48

If you buy a share which you think is incorrectly priced against what the value of the company you think should be, it is unreasonable to expect the share to bounce back the day after you bought it. Depending on the circumstances it could be years. Therefore never buy your holding all at once. Spread it out and set a maximum price you are prepared to pay which gives you significant margin between what others and you perceive as fair value.

[danny baker] 10/4/2019 15:51

I've eased up on my averaging down. My average is now under 360p and I'll gently add below 330p because I feel these shares could bounce hard and fast at some point. I am comforted by Woodford adding to his position especially knowing how short of cash he is. However on the other side you have quite aggressive shorting by people who think this is the next Interserve. I don't think the Kier accounts are anywhere near the dodginess of Carillion, Interserve, Capita etc but even if like Minerve you believe you are right, it can be uncomfortable riding out downward share price volatility.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 13:11

All in a good day's work. LOL

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 13:10

Shares don't 'owe' you anything.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 13:07

How much I am down on paper at this point is of no importance to me and neither should it be to you. ;)

[trident5] 10/4/2019 13:00

Minerve - you must be about 25% down here, at least.

[ltcm1] 10/4/2019 12:44

Yes but the difference is you have declared yourself to be long in Kier whereas I don't have any position.

Gray mentioned a 3% margin as being standard for the industry. I suspect it is a standard for Kier but I know it is not the case for their competitors.

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 12:28

Whereas you would be providing it if he was a shorter?

LOL

[ltcm1] 10/4/2019 12:24

From here it looks like Gray is seeking confirmation bias and you are providing it.

[sharetradergray] 10/4/2019 12:22

GRAY not Gary

[minerve 2] 10/4/2019 12:19

The risk is better understood if one doesn't exhibit ignorance.

[ltcm1] 10/4/2019 12:15

Gary - you said yesterday "By 2022 when my work plan has reached fruition, I am 100% sure Kier share price will be much higher than today".

You can't be 100% about ANY stock going forward, let alone one as volatile as this.

Also you should ignore all broker forecasts they are a total waste of space and not worth the paper they are written on.

Woodford holding such a big percentage of the company is not a good sign in my opinion.

I don't know what Kier will do in the future but the range will be 0 - 1200 say.

Good luck but Kier is a high risk share in either direction.