Kier Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 09/4/2019 13:26

Minerve I think you have a nerve advising other posters to buy shares, my position here is I am not optimistic but I wouldn't advise anyone so directly. I am merely trying to provide an explanation for the falling share price in a very general sense, I haven't been over the numbers or anything.

Kier seem to me to be operating a 'reverse casino' in that they clearly are management heavy, so heavy they have got themselves into a postion where they have to bid for every building project going. They have such a massive cost base they can't afford not to get these contracts, so they go in very cheap on everything hoping if they get billions of pounds worth of business it will somehow work out for them in the end.

Can you really not see it's the management tail wagging the building dog here???

The thing is they are going to be hugely exposed to any upcoming wage inflation in the industry. I am not saying it will happen but they say a lot of the migrant labour is going and construction is not a popular choice among the young. It could play havoc with those wafer thin margins!

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 12:55

Maybe he should start selling a bit of Burford. LOL

[brexitplus] 09/4/2019 12:54

Porsche

Woodford Equity Income is down to about £4.4 billion now compared to its high in mid 2017 of about £10 billion. And redemptions all the time.

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 12:53

"Why on earth would someone who works in Kier ask Minerva where the share will go?"

Because I at least provide rationale rather than a scary comment or a useless anecdote.

[zicopele] 09/4/2019 12:51

Why on earth would someone who works in Kier ask Minerva where the share will go?

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 12:40

SharetraderGray

Nothing has changed since the last update to warrant the share price fall. Buying at the current share price is good value. Regardless of the circus of Brexit, we have reasonable economic activity and investment in construction, and reasonable government finances. If you believe that the working capital position will unwind, and current business activity in infrastructure is going to remain, then buying at these levels is a good opportunity. I think the circus around Brexit has created a wonderful opportunity for shorters and this will remain until a path forward is clear and the £ starts to recover. The new CEO starts on Monday and I would have thought that the finance director has already got the skeletons out of the cupboard before he arrives - that is if he values his job. There was a stupid reassignment of debt about month back, and amongst other things, seems to signal the FD was 'kitchen sinking' before the new CEO arrives.

Kier are looking to get out of FM, are you aware of that?

[brexitplus] 09/4/2019 12:39

item1

Yes, the costs of putting together the pitch and the associated costs can be very high, often running into the hundreds of thousands.

Please don't be too hard on poor old minerve. He believes that he knows everything about everything. Whereas I know that I am young enough to know that I am constantly learning.

He has been filtered for quite a while now.

[porsche1945] 09/4/2019 12:38

....and the bad news re xrail isnt quanitified, its emerging all the time.

[porsche1945] 09/4/2019 12:37

Minerve " its nothing like capita ". The drivel you spout on these columns, its exactly like Capita in that it is totally reliant on gov and local authority contracts, the mechanics are the same. You constantly try and put lipstick on this pig becos you have been buying into a disintegrating stock instead of shorting it. Usual naive private investor chasing high divs or looking for a bounce, good luck with that. These firms are political footballs, over regulated and next to no profit, I cant think why anyone would invest in a type of company that has a failing business model. I just increased my shorts on this and AML. Woodford has been reducing all his holdings to pay down another tidal wave of redemptions prompted by a new press onslaught of how pxxs poor his funds are.

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 12:24

ltcm19

"Minerve I don't get why you are belittleing Brexitplus for making a serious point, one infact I made too before based on knowing someone who pitches for these contracts."

Because to me it is stating the obvious. If you don't know that this happens YOU really shouldn't be investing at all anywhere. This is kindergarten stuff folks.

[ltcm1] 09/4/2019 12:19

Minerve I don't get why you are belittleing Brexitplus for making a serious point, one infact I made too before based on knowing someone who pitches for these contracts.

The costs to even pitch are incredible. There are endless beauty parades, many of them in central London. Then there are the two day hotel ones where they do speed dating presentations to clients. Plus there is Earls Court and the NEC shows.

The pitching game has become a mini industry. The firms are very reluctant to let their pitchers go because they are terrified they will take their costings to the opposition, the whole process has become overly bloated and unhealthy.

[sharetradergray] 09/4/2019 11:43

Hi Minerve, I work for Kier in the FM side of the business have been part of the Share plan at Kier since they were £14 a share is this now the bottom i have been buying shares at £4.25 and today at £3.20 do you think the price will now bounce interested to get your thoughts?

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 11:29

I'm hoping the new CEO puts pressure on the finance director to up his game at the very least. Perhaps the kitchen sinking has already happened. I hope so. We will know for sure, fairly soon.

[jonwig] 09/4/2019 11:28

The declared short interest in Kier:

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 11:25

Shorting has fallen. This is potentially the bottom. I could be wrong.

Political uncertainty is highest this week and the CEO starts Monday.

[updowntrader] 09/4/2019 11:22

Hey minevre, how many disclosed shorts are you seeing now (%)?

[updowntrader] 09/4/2019 11:18

Just spoken with the Woodford Team and they are holding with the intent to add.

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 11:11

My god, if ADVFN was a planet, and the posters here are the best intelligence it has to offer, I'd be running the show within a few weeks.

LOL

[brexitplus] 09/4/2019 11:06

My brother in law, who pitches for work in this sector with a very large multi-national tells me that they choose which contracts to go for very carefully and even then it is very competitive with wafer thin margins. If they win a contract they cross their fingers and hope nothing goes wrong. Additionally clients try at every opportunity, whether in the contract or not, try to claw back some of their budget.

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 11:05

Woodford increased his holding a few days back.

[minerve 2] 09/4/2019 11:05

It's nothing like Capita. Cross rail problems well known.

Never average down for averaging down's sake. Silly thing to do.

[porsche1945] 09/4/2019 10:59

Woodford now apparently unloading, massive problems with xrail coming out, another expensive tory disaster to go with brexit. This is done for, Capita mk2. Averaging down a very poor investment philosophy, just chasing losses