Kier Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 02/12/2018 23:32

zicopele

Here is the lesson: If you think the market is always right that implies you believe in the Efficient Market Theory. Time and time again this theory has been proven to be nonsense. The world's greatest investor doesn't believe the market is always right, in fact his mentor even suggested it was a manic depressive.

[minerve] 02/12/2018 23:06

zicopele

"The market is always right."

Oh dear. Lot to learn I see. You aren't experienced. That is obvious.

[zicopele] 02/12/2018 22:42

The market will find the right price for the share. The market is always right.

No point complaining about a mispriced share. If you believe Kier is mispriced, buy more tomorrow.

I would not touch kier at current price myself. It is run by oh so clever accountants...not an engineer in sight.

[gettingrichslow] 02/12/2018 22:28

Of course it raises the cost of capital, but the company has to make the first mistake to get a short attack i.e. not running a disciplined and prudent enough fiscal policy. They pay the price if they don't run a tight enough ship. And that benefits society because it reinforces the need for discipline in EVERY OTHER COMPANY! Simple really. But if you've only been in this game for 20 years you may not have understood that yet. You'll get there eventually...

[minerve] 02/12/2018 21:51

zicopele

Did I blame the short sellers for the debt position?

Answer: No, I didn't.

You must see though that shorting activity has raised Kier's cost of capital. Who benefits and is this good for society?

[zicopele] 02/12/2018 21:36

Kier will keep falling to circa £3.50 to reflect new dividend policy.

It may even go lower if that dividend can't be maintained.

No.point blaming short sellers for current debt position which had left Kier very vulnerable to any economic downturn.

[minerve] 02/12/2018 17:08

gettingrichslow 2 Dec '18 - 16:58 - 1174 of 1174 (Filtered)

[gettingrichslow] 02/12/2018 16:58

Was she smart enough to short Kier? Or did she go to a Poly too?

[minerve] 02/12/2018 15:37

Rattled, I don't think so. I've been preparing a room for my daughter coming back from Italy for Christmas. She is way smarter than you getting, and probably a 3rd of your age.

[gettingrichslow] 02/12/2018 13:26

Rattled? Full on meltdown!! 😂😂

[minerve] 02/12/2018 13:00

Looks like someone doesn't understand that investors can sell without shorting.
Looks like someone doesn't understand why the 'tick up' rule has been used from time-to-time.
Looks like someone doesn't understand that most on ADVFN who think they are shorting actually aren't.
Looks like someone doesn't understand why loan stock is available in the first place and why those lenders who allow the short are actually long investors.
Looks like someone doesn't understand the ability of a company to raise capital at the appropriate price.
Looks like someone doesn't understand the weighted average cost of capital and its implications on a business.
Looks like someone doesn't understand the implications of mass shorting on society and on wealth distribution.

Get a life getting and come back when you know what you are talking about.

[gettingrichslow] 02/12/2018 10:56

Looks like someone doesn't really understand the role shorting plays in markets...

[minerve] 02/12/2018 10:21

EdmondJ

Too add, we don't really know the objectives of the institutions but some will be prepared to see a temporary fall in their holding value for the opportunity to add at significantly lower value. Many will be long-term so priority will be to improve opportunity rather than accelerate the return.

[minerve] 02/12/2018 10:11

EdmondJ

Good post. Yes, the deep discount should not be ignored. Fear in the stock market, the credit markets, the supply chains and an unsettled government will result in some real affects on the business. This 'debt shadow' that Kier refers to has allowed fear to impact real business. The shorters have played on this opportunity and assisted the fall in the share price so much that the rights issue price has to be part function of shorting IMO. This is where Graham logic comes in. In otherwords the unjustified market decline is embedded in the rights issue price. With capital raised the debt shadow should clear which should remove/reduce real impact on the business. I'm sure the shorters will still be clutching at straws. Of course there is still a risk here but this is no Carillion. Infact Carillion's demise is Kier's gain. Kier has stated it is still on target to meet year-end performance. The number of contracts it has significantly dwarfs what Carillion had. The order pipeline is strong and a large percentage of revenue for 2019 is already in place.

I wouldn't place the family silver in Kier but at these forward PEs it presents a good opportunity to the value investor IMO. I plan to take up my full-rights but after that Kier will represent c3% of my portfolio.

[solooiler] 02/12/2018 10:04

Connea there was a different rights issue when they bought Mouchel in 2015. 5 old bought you 7 new, which it looks like you took up in full

Honestly, to work out whether to buy or sell from here i think you should disregard at what price you bought them completely. Just need to ask yourself whether the current valuation is cheap or expensive for Kier. Definitely read the rights issue announcement top to bottom for starters

[connea] 02/12/2018 09:49

Can anyone help me out. I have 500 shares purchased in 2012, on my account I have been showing 1214 for while. From memory I think Kier issued free shares or revalued existing shares. With recent events I'm trying to work out if its worth holding or dumping them. Does anyone have any details when the free shares or revaluation took place and what was the deal. Tried googleing it however all news is about recent events.

[edmondj] 02/12/2018 07:40

Minerve,

Get the Graham logic; yet if Kier priced its rights at 409p it's not altogether an "unjustified market decline"!

A chief concern - if not conundrum - is why the insti's would only play ball at such price, given it would be negotiated. If Kier's issues are not fundamental, instead a temporary shift in creditor/client preferences on published gearing, then why the deep discount? This at least, is an anomaly. The insti's have seen fit to undermine intrinsic value in their own stakes, with greater dilution.

(Not to imply a negative view on the stock at this level.)

[gettingrichslow] 01/12/2018 23:21

Alternatively, google 'lemming'...

[minerve] 01/12/2018 23:16

The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgement. - Graham.

Try and digest this and separate the facts of the rights issue from the nonsense perpetuated by shorters. In doing that you will identify the appropriate risk/reward and then you can decide whether to be contrarian or join the herd. One thing to note, you will never beat the market if you always agree with it.

[elcapital2018] 01/12/2018 22:05

lol.such a hypocrite

[gettingrichslow] 01/12/2018 22:04

Solooiler, very wise move. This won't be seeing 615p again. Perfect short though.

[solooiler] 01/12/2018 20:06

Sold out of this last Friday at 615p. Horrible that they announced this while the market was still open