Kier Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 01/12/2018 19:51

"The group’s shares fell by a third by the end of trading on Friday, ending the day at 507p, as investors digested the deal. But Mursell said this was a “mathematical adjustment” for the rights issue and once normal trading of the underwritten new shares had commenced next month he expected the group’s overall stock to be trading at around 615p a share."

Yeah, we talked about 619p yesterday. But who cares really where it is in a month or two? Until the Brexit circus is sorted I wouldn't read too much into SPs. Just see it as an opportunity to buy/add.

[palwing32] 01/12/2018 18:52

There are a few SP's showing strange figures on ADVFN since the close of market on Friday. Flybe and TCG too. Most probably an ADVFN glitch.

[chopp1] 01/12/2018 18:48

Nomdeplume

There were a lot of post close trades buying the shares. I can only see from 17.10 to 17.55 but around 100000+ buys(numbers of shares)and no sells in that time. Probably the shorters buying back the shares to return to the lenders before the RI.

[capercaillie] 01/12/2018 18:31

Since the collapse of Carillion, Kier’s order book has grown considerably. However with construction margins at circa 2% no wonder the banks see this as more eye watering than mouth watering.

[nomdeplume] 01/12/2018 17:41

A quick question: Has anyone else noticed the recent trades?

[gettingrichslow] 01/12/2018 16:35

400p soon. Lemmings only.

[f15jcm] 01/12/2018 12:50

That is my biggest concern. A symptom of a boardroom full of accountants I suspect.

[minerve] 01/12/2018 12:42

chopp1

"If we believe that they are trading in line with expectations, it can only be working capital management."

I think it is exactly that.

[chopp1] 01/12/2018 12:40

Has anyone yet heard an explanation of the rise in net debt from 185m at end of June to over 600 at 31 October? If we believe that they are trading in line with expectations, it can only be working capital management.

[minerve] 01/12/2018 12:15

Raising the money makes sense. Strange time of day to release an RNS, but I suspect a leak, and so their hand was forced. FT not really helping matters by the continual infactuation with the morally dubious shorting fraternity.

I'm comfortable building up a position here. The position will only be a few % of my portfolio. But with a forward PE of 3 (pre-rights) and a strong forward order book it is worth the risk. Not for the faint-hearted though.

I can understand why many would stay clear but you don't beat the market by being one of the herd. Great contrarian play.

Let the game BEGIN! LOL

[jonwig] 01/12/2018 11:43

chopp - no. "The Rights Issue is fully underwritten by Numis Securities Limited, Peel Hunt LLP, Citigroup Global Markets Limited, HSBC Bank plc and Banco Santander, S.A., all of which are acting as Joint Bookrunners."

[chopp1] 01/12/2018 11:38

Could this RI get pulled if the price drops further in Monday? Getting dangerously close to the offer price.

[porsche1945] 01/12/2018 11:24

24th August Woodford upped his stake from 5 to 10 per cent of Kier, that with short positiions never totalling less than 10 per cent and as high as 18. Unbelivable, he is on a mission to blow out his poor investors, if I was still in any of his cxxp funds I would be out first thing mon morn. HL share some responsibility for giving him and his dross funds so much oxygen, good earner for them I guess, mr H a billionairs, unlike his investors.

[jonwig] 01/12/2018 11:22

f15jcm - the fear of no deal is spooking a number of sectors: retail property, housebuilding, and gov't sponsored construction services. It's quite easy to argue that projects will be curtailed, postponed, or cancelled (HS2?). And they've said PFI is finished in its original guise. And then there's Jezza.

I'm trying to be objective, neutral and just observing what the market seems to think.

[gettingrichslow] 01/12/2018 10:56

Lemmings only. A fine short.

[porsche1945] 01/12/2018 09:59

unheard of releasing news of a rights issue in the afternoon, something obviously went wrong earlier in the day, actually looks a desperate act under analysis, better to swerve the rights blackmail and take a loss.

[f15jcm] 01/12/2018 09:55

Is Brexit really the issue here or just poor management? Kier are winning loads of business at an improving margin so I'm not sure the economic climate can be blamed. The debt level at the end of October would have been considered excessive had the nation returned a remain vote. And no, I'm not a Brexiteer.

[porsche1945] 01/12/2018 09:40

Another depressing fund raise, one after another they arrive and the recession hasnt even started yet....uk shares almost uninvestable thanks to this brexit basket case insanity. The Woodford purchase was defo a sell sign, his back britain ego trip a disaster for his poor investors.

[capercaillie] 01/12/2018 08:00

I should have heeded the warnings when Neil Woodford increased his stake.

[buywell3] 01/12/2018 03:02

With a Global Downturn now in prospect and OIL having its worst month in a decade

as a warning clue of the market seeing falling OIL demand into a weak Global 2019

This share IMO could slide towards 400p as the chart seems to indicate

Can't see any positives chartwise ... debt seems to also remain an issue whilst dividends still get paid if you believe that 2019 will see a global downturn

The property bubble has started to deflate in many countries now

[careful] 30/11/2018 20:41

They should be made by company law to quote the average daily debt, or even the maximum outstanding debt during the year.
then we would know.

[arja] 30/11/2018 20:34

careful,
If you are right , this company seems similar to aussie companies years ago who
were solvent and a few months later went bust - creative accounting I guess ! ( smile ). I got hit when I had shares in one of them !

[careful] 30/11/2018 20:29

how can we private investors trust these accounts.
reading todays statement.

At 30th June net debt was £185.7m (ok, manageable)
today they admitted that the average daily debt average was £465m.(£375+90)
..at Oct 31 2018 net debt was £624m.

I guess the Y/E figure can be made to look better by delaying payments or other deceptions.
The debt was uncomfortably high almost all of the time, yet this was kept from us by the company and the auditors.

Reminds us of the CLLN shambles.
Now they ask for £264m
Net assets (ignoring intangibles) would be less than zero without this cash.

[f15jcm] 30/11/2018 20:24

The balance sheet criteria for tenders was probably a big factor. The financial strength of companies bidding for public contracts has come under increased scrutiny lately. Interserve are in a real mess and fell 9% today. This short term pain will almost be worth it if the shorters move on. That and a well received Brexit outcome could still deliver significant upside. The RI is actually good for the business if not the immediate interests of shareholders.

[minerve] 30/11/2018 20:17

bsdjj

You know it could be the case that the directors were hoping to try and ride through with small increments with the safety of a capital raise as last resort and then the shorters pile in and to some extent force their hand.