Kier Share Discussion Threads

[wallywoo] 05/4/2023 17:01

Interestingly it was just over 2 years ago when you started posting exclusively on the Kier bb, I do find it funny, you thgt the share price was on the way to 948p then!!! Isn't it amazing you still have so much faith, after such a poor 2 years (and 10 years of this being a terrible investment)!!! 2 years is a long time to "buy the dips ". Still lots more dips to go.

iTisOnlyMoney - 19 Jan 2021 - 13:46:45 - 18568 of 24830 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
You've left the 1 off. 148p. On the way to 948p.
iTisOnlyMoney - 19 Jan 2021 - 13:44:58 - 18566 of 24830 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
No. Kier will break away upwards and leave costain behind, on account of Kier's larger size, market coverage and resilience.
iTisOnlyMoney - 01 Jan 2021 - 04:10:46 - 18225 of 24830 Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE
I think you'll find sparty is right about debt.

[wallywoo] 05/4/2023 16:10

What that poster probably fails to realise is that 2 years ago there were 162m shares in issue (up from 92m in 2016).


Today there are 446m shares in issue.


So a 70p share price 2 years ago gave a 162m x 0.7 = £113m valuation (the actual share price was around 88p 2 years ago - £142m mcap)


If Kier had the same mcap as 2 years ago, today the share price would be 142/446 = about 32p !!!


However, today it gives a 446m x 0.7= £312m valuation (mkt cap) WAY too high imo, since the company still can't generate any cash, the cost of debt is 3x 2 years ago and any dividend is a very distant hope.

So I disagree, sell into any strength!!

[itisonlymoney] 05/4/2023 12:42

accurte comment from lse post today.
Even at the 70p level, this level 2 years ago when the order book and profits were not as assured as today, this level would've been considered a mini-disaster. The share price now and going forward has much further to go up IMO.

i agree. buy the dips.

[itisonlymoney] 05/4/2023 12:38

trolls being a bit sad on this thread today. wantingattention and not getting it. maybe get a job? do somethng useful?

[zicopele] 05/4/2023 12:03

Wally..leave the poor lad alone.

He will be posting news of new contract wins soon. Little does he realise that Kier winning work is like Tesco selling bananas.

[wallywoo] 05/4/2023 11:30

Poor Hamham and stdy, lol.


For 4 years now, I have warned you about getting all excited every time the share price rises a couple of pence. You jump up and down, go running to your friends and then it all goes sour again.


When will you ever learn. This is a terrible investment, has been for 10 years now. It's a money pit that has disappointed at every new balance sheet. It's so predictable every balance sheet shows more cash lost. Investors here should cut out the middle man and just flush their cash away down the toilet. Would save a lot of time and heartache.


Don't worry Stdy, I have asked your mum to make your favourite tea tonight. We all know how sad and despondent you get. So sad!!!

[hamhamham1] 05/4/2023 11:12

zicopele5 Apr '23 - 08:13 - 24822 of 24823 (Filtered)

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bathboy25 Apr '23 - 10:18 - 24823 of 24823 (Filtered)

[bathboy2] 05/4/2023 10:18

Appears neither can answer a question, must be in government or opposition somewhere

[zicopele] 05/4/2023 08:13

Time for Steddy to switch off the Hamham alterego permanently.

[hamhamham1] 05/4/2023 06:40

I got all 3 of them on filter, don't give oxygen to the trolls.

[bathboy2] 05/4/2023 05:50

What is interesting, is that you do not address that you have in the past said , reducing headcount was a positive. So what is your opinion, if Kier have in fact increased their headcount , straight answer wil do

[stdyeddy] 05/4/2023 01:18

You poor little trolls just can't help shrieking, can you? I didn't say it was a positive, or a negative. I just said it was 'interesting'. Berks. You're just squeaking because the shareprice is going back up. Expect more of the same.

[zicopele] 04/4/2023 20:12

He makes it up bathboy. He did indeed always cite Kiers reducing headcount a s positive.

What do you expect from a shill?

[bathboy2] 04/4/2023 19:51

I thought you always trumpeted , that kiers headcount had gone down , now you see it as a positive, that it has gone up , it would be interesting to know how many are soldiers on the sites, and how many are backroom office staff

[stdyeddy] 03/4/2023 10:28

Interesting little piece on recruitment:

Looking at the most active hirers across the region, the data reveals that construction firm, Kier Group led the way, posting over 1,300 new jobs in 2022, more than double the total in 2021. This is in keeping with the overall demand for construction professionals noted last year, and a trend that is expected to continue with Kier Group recently awarded projects to deliver multiple net zero and all-electric developments in Scotland and Wales, including a £25m teaching block and £30m mortuary.

[stdyeddy] 03/4/2023 10:13

Obviously the share price rising has got wolly rattled, hence his constant posting on here with multiple poster names. Fairly strong buying this morning. Banking crisis seems to be over. We'll probably be at £1 by end of June, assuming WW3 doesn't break out.

Forecast of 3.5% margin on £3.5bn (I'll be amazed if this hasn't dropped for Kier) is about £120m. Cash conversion forecast by Kesterton is 90% of that. £100m a year for two years will put Kier on net cash of about £200m at year-end and avg monthly debt of around zero. There's nothing much wrong with this company or its current management and the shares are priced as if the business was broke. Should easily be £2 a year from now.

[hamhamham1] 03/4/2023 09:51

Gonna hit 70p today.
Yawn TrollMaster General.

wallywoo3 Apr '23 - 08:43 - 24813 of 24813 (Filtered)

[wallywoo] 03/4/2023 08:43

Hbr up 30% since Hamham called it a worthless investment just 2 weeks ago.


Meanwhile, Kier continues to struggle. Share price has only really been lower than today for a few weeks in Kier's entire history.


To me, this has the feeling of May/June profit warning again (the one in 2019 knocked 70% off the share price)!!

I think Hamham should do something else than trade stocks. He has a shocking track record!!

[not helping] 02/4/2023 17:29

@wallywoo -- just trying to bring some balance to affairs (esp about share price expectations), as the cash movements in H1-23 have been explained (e.g. they had to discharge the KEPS line), and we all appreciate this is a higher risk sector. As I've recorded in another post, there are many potential 'fleas' here. At this time, I'm prepared (just about!)to give management the benefit of the doubt on their forward cashflow prognostications, ignoring the heavily managed year-end numbers.

@bathboy2 -- the appetite for construction sector lending has been constrained for many years now, given the issues with Carillion, Interserve, Balfour's issues pre Quinn as CEO, and others. For the banks, it's a capital intensive sector given potential loss factors in extremis and, structurally, Kier shouldn't be using debt as it is.

[hamhamham1] 02/4/2023 15:20

Ahhh trollywoo, still not got a life???

wallywoo2 Apr '23 - 13:07 - 24808 of 24810 (Filtered)

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bathboy22 Apr '23 - 14:47 - 24809 of 24810 (Filtered)

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wallywoo2 Apr '23 - 15:03 - 24810 of 24810 (Filtered)

[wallywoo] 02/4/2023 15:03

Are you having a laugh, bathboy??


The banking system is in real trouble. Credit Suisse, First National, and Silicon Valley are just the first. These are just the first domino's to fall over. It has only just begun. Don't take my word for it, listen to Gerald Celente and his trends publication.





Before the next period is over, it will make the 2008-9 credit crunch period seem like a minor storm.


This is the time to hold the strongest assets you can find. Buy gold, silver to counter the huge fiat money destruction to come.


Of course, Kier will get blown away to nothing in the fallout.

[bathboy2] 02/4/2023 14:47

I get your , if everything goes well figures , but i think more will be known when current refinancing has taken place , banks/institutions lending rates are on the way down , BOE rates still expecting, 1 more rise , but there is a lot of money available in the system.The unknown is are they eager to lend to construction.

[wallywoo] 02/4/2023 13:07

Although your post sounds knowledgeable, it completely misses the most important aspect.


Average monthly net debt is rising every period since the last equity issue. From £190m to £216m to £242.7m.


They are losing cash. Talk of a dividend is laughable and any supposed bottom line profit here is meaningless (no cash generation always leads to a bust company in the end) . You need to talk about the possible new cash problems.


That is the sole reason for 3 past equity issues (830% more shares issued) and the reason why the shares have fallen from 1800 to 68p over the last 10 years. It is also why every single administration has happened in this sector. There are many many companies that have gone bust before. The next weakest balance sheet in this sector is Costain and they have £123m net cash at year end (and still can't afford a dividend).

[not helping] 02/4/2023 09:28

It's entertaining to read the differing views on K's progress & outlook, but when I look at the fundamentals and the back story:

1- they are carrying normalised debt ~£260m (post b/sheet clean-up), which is structurally incorrect for the business model. Unquestionably, K remains 'in recovery' exposed to adjoining risks of the sector (inc political risks around HS2).

2- if you buy the recovery story (which is very plausible), it's unlikely the cash profile will improve adequately to support payment of a divi until at least calendar Q4-24 -- to go earlier would be highly imprudent IMV, as they will need to establish and be confident of sustainability of trading and ability to reward equity (and starting by paying an Interim DV given the H1 w/cap outflow would be silly IMHO). If I was an NED and given the massive accountability/responsibility to equity per the raises, I'd wait until FYE2025. If they go too early, lenders would crucify them if issues arose and lender appetite to this sector is already very cautious/constrained.

3- if they pay a full-year 10p = @£45m (well covered >2x and sustainable?), I suspect market would rate them at 7/8% - suggesting share price support for ~ £1.25

With a rebuilt b/sheet (no material debt reliance = <£100m) and based on say 6x earnings (~£140M p.a.), an EV (market value) of ~£750M + would be suggested = say supports S/P £1.65ish.

A major wild card here is if they can grow construction revenues, which will suck in cash (but won't change the fundamental weakness of the B/S short term).

If you postulate a £2 S/P, then (IMV) and with interest rates where they are now, you're expecting a DV yield of ~7% = divi payment £60M+ for full-year, which is far too aggressive when they have to use earnings to repair B/S alongside -- this is more of an outlook for 2026?

Another consideration here given the massive losses booked could be whether they have adequate 'distributable reserves' for DV payments -- I need to check on this.

[sr2day] 01/4/2023 14:46

wally is a deramper paid by shortsellers.to be ignored.