Since the last update it appears about 1 billion worth of additional work has been confirmed with the new Glasgow prison being the biggest. So hopefully the outlook is very positive. Maybe them reporting a net cash position of over 100 million will be the catalyst that the company has now completely turned around? |
Like most people on this site I can’t understand the basis of the share buyback if the results are good then surely the price will go up and therefore they will have to pay more where is the logic I think the board should explain when the results are announced. Of course the opposite could happen and the results are disappointing and the shares fall and they pay less either way this is not good management. Galliford figures were excellent following on from Morgan Sindall so next Tuesday should be interesting with both Kier and Costain reporting as I said previously they have to be positive about the second half with comments like this year we will see profits significantly ahead otherwise these shares won’t be moving very much. |
Galliford now sitting at a PE of 12 whilst Kier winning contracts hand over fist that are gold plated government contracts is on a PE of 6. I expect fire works on results day here.My point re the buybacks is just this company is generating well over £100 million of free cash flow now. There appears to be circa £60 million of stock in free float. My point is serious shareholder value can be created if they buy the stock more aggressively. Ultimately price would need to double before institutions start selling imo. |
A big rise for GFRD this morning, opening almost 7% up on last night's closing price and still going strong; almost 10% up in the first 20 minutes and just about to show on the top ten risers leaderboard. |
Also the new focus on defence is already producing contracts for Kier (they have at least three big ones already and now this one):
Kier scoops £118m army barracks deal
The contract, which runs until April 2030, was awarded by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) last week as a framework call-off.
It will see Kier deliver living accommodation, technical facilities and other infrastructure, and will include a combination of new-build and refurbishment of existing assets. |
Excellent report from Galliford this morning. All numbers above expectations. Bodes well for Kier for next week. |
Trouble is a lot of private investors here are still underwater , they may have brought more in recent years and lowered their average, obviously some have doubled their money here , but they will be the minority , they chance of big dividends , is not part of the remit, I'm sure , and most private investors here , it wouldn't fund a weekend away. |
As you say with 83%, owned already by institutions , are they planning on hoovering up the other 17% , pushing out the small players , less interested parties in the mix , easier to sell the business ?? |
Yes this share has big institutional ownership and hence low free float. But that surely is even more reason to go in bigger with the buyback as the price would have to go up due to limited shares to sell. Or perhaps the management are fine being sacked when the inevitable US private equity take over happens if they can not generate any share holder value. |
Besides the worldwide economic disaster, it is quite normal to see Kier's share price (SP) drop for weeks followed by a slow recovery. Unfortunately, I am not convinced that the share price will rise above 160p. It's better to buy the dip and sell at 150p.
The buyback is ridiculous, and as I said from the beginning, I would have appreciated a higher dividend. However, with 83% of the company owned by financial institutions, the buyback makes them happier. |
It definitely is affecting the share price , but so many shares owned by institutional investors, almost have to be prized out into the market |
You would imagine with the amount of money they will be generating, over 100 million a year in excess cash flow now that month end debt is gone that they will have the capacity to add to the buy back substantially. But that would only make sense if they increased they daily amount bought back. Just crazy to have a buyback set at this volume. Should have declared a special dividend or something rather than this nonsense. |
Maybe keeping spend low , until next Tuesday , if then required to support the share price , could be a reason , all will become clear , or maybe saving, to pile in , if an offer appears , another option |
Well today is likely to be the worst day between now and Tuesday, given that the US has applied heavy tariffs to a few countries and stopped aid to Ukraine. The pound is actually up, since we appear to be dodging the bullets so to speak. Presumably this also means cheaper materials coming from Canada to the UK, so for the moment at least, not really negative for the UK. Kier is domestically focused only, so again, no real impact. The relatively small drop today is a feature of the entire market. I'd like to see Peel Hunt increase the buyback rate today to take advantage of it, but I doubt it'll happen. I don't understand what's going on with the buyback strategy for now, but I daresay it'll become clearer over time.
Just need to get through the next four business days now. |
Have a look at Keller Group results. That's the kind of move I am expecting here next Tuesday. |
No reason why not. |
Can Kier be involved in the construction of the SMR infrastructure? |
Be very interesting , on knowing more on the structure of the JV , bet it's weighted in Investec favour |
more on the peoplebuilding project by kier property and its joint venture with investec.
Kier Property has formed a new joint venture with Investec Bank to develop £400m of urban logistics schemes across England.
The new venture has secured its first site with the off-market acquisition of a 4.4-acre former office site in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, which will be redeveloped into a seven-unit Trade and Logistics City scheme, providing 87,000 sq ft of modern industrial space. |
Going to be interesting to see. I think the cash position will be north of 100 million so that would mean at least 25p of the share price is covered by cash. I think there will be a big bump in the dividend too. I can honestly see this doing a British Airways style move and doubling pretty quickly. It's the same type of turn around from huge debt, paying it down into a growing market. |
How about profit before tax £35-40m eps of 6-7p adjusted 11p much improved cash position but I think it’s less about these figures and more about what they say going forward as the second half will be (hopefully) a lot better than the first, they have to be very positive and sound really upbeat. We have Galliford figures on Wednesday so they will give an indication about the sector to get her with Morgan Sindall it should be all positive. I’m looking for full year eps of 15p+ adjusted could be 25p+ with a price of 170+ |
Anyone got any predictions as to what the earnings figure will be in a week or so? Not only should earnings be higher than this time last year, but there will also be a huge bump in the dividend as it moves from being four times covered by earnings to three times. |
here's the original buyback announcement on LSE:
no email but some phone numbers for investor relations. |
it's a strange approach. i've been watching it for weeks expecting it to vary with the market but they seem to just buy the same small amount. is peel hunt waiting for the price to go below 140p again? i'd like to know their strategy, because if there isn't a price shock, it's going to take years to buy £20m at about £100k a week.
if the shares go up on the 11th they will have missed an opportunity. even today at 148, i'd expect them to buy at least double the recent daily amount. i haven't asked ir. everyone here should drop them a line to find out what's going on. maybe peel hunt have got their wires crossed. |
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