Is anyone in touch with investor relations? I just find it ridiculous that with the company on a forward PE of like 6 they are not using the buy back money more aggressively to cancel the shares when they are this cheap. Also I am pretty confident that results going forward are going to be very good. After rereading everything they seem to be suggesting a lot of legacy costs are going to drop out going forward. At least 30 million between legacy fire cladding, kier property disposal costs and interest refinancing ect. I can honestly see this doubling very quickly when the penny drops how much cash this will generate going forwards and it all hits the bottom line now that month end debt is pretty much gone. |
Few want to Train new staff, they'd rather bring in cheap labour from abroad. |
#25583,
We can't get "UK workers" off their @rses to do anything in this country, let alone go off to Ukraine, although maybe the East Europeans who seem to provide most of our active workforce in the building trade might be tempted. |
I agree Rich. London is about as foreign as Kier gets. A US bid for the business could easily happen though; the UK stockmarket is famously undervalued and the bids have been coming. Kier isn't exactly invisible either -- the UK government's biggest single contractor.
I'd hate to see this go to overseas owners and so would the govt - counter bids from UK firms would be encouraged I reckon, possibly even 'reverse takeovers' from smaller businesses to avoid the monopolies commission, if that's still a thing. I wouldn't be surprised to see bids from Galliford or Costain. The net cash announcement could well trigger it. As clyde pointed out the other day, a fwd p/e of 5 or 6 is about half the sector average, and even that's pessimistic. Less than a fortnight to go for the interims. Meanwhile the stockmarket is having another moment about Trump tariffs elsewhere. |
Kier do not do work overseas so I doubt they will get involved in any rebuild in Ukraine |
See Starmer a pro European , going to take the credit for a trade deal with the US , funny how things are forgotten , as a deal would not be possible if still ' Part of Europe' , and Brexit hadn't happened, this could mean an approach for Kier from an American company , and the use of the company to rebuild Ukraine, the possibility of a deal in Ukraine , will open up massive contracts and work , for UK workers , like when the Berlin wall fell , watch this space , Starmer had to do something , because Reform are becoming a threat |
Had a dabble here today, time I tried something new. |
bathboy, have you ever been right about anything on kier? 500 negative posts on kier and all of them wrong. that's an amazing record. how do you do it? |
looking fwd to it. interims on the 11th march. cld be fireworks here, especially given the current low expectations. |
You make my point. Morgan Sindall is valued at 1.7 billion vs Kier at 600 million. We need to wait to see Kiers results but the figures will be close to Morgan Sindall. Morgan Sindall has a higher cash position but Kier will accumulate over 100 million cash this year and that is why Kiers share price will double pretty quickly to take it to 1.2 billion market cap. |
400mn JV is gross development value , what is Kiers stake if any , or just tied in contractor , ?? And the 700mn prison job , 'all going to kier' are they not going to pay anyone ?? , probably on both jobs at very low margins , see turnover now higher at Morgan Sindall than Kier , and a cash rich company , and their share price is muted, up on the last year , but down lately , and after decent results still fell back , construction still an unloved stock |
Joint venture regarding the below property is targeting £400 million. That along with £700 million going all to Kier for the new Glasgow prison suggests the upside is just being ignored presently.https://www.logisticsmanager.com/investec-and-kier-property-invest-400m-with-hemel-hempstead-acquisition/ |
Yes but Morgan Sindall has doubled in the last year whilst Kier has consolidated. Taking into how quickly cash will now build on Kiers balance sheet I think the forward PE here is about 5 or 6 so there is plenty of scope to move higher. The current buy back of 20,000 pounds worth of shares a day is about to get ramped up significantly I think also so that should move it much higher too. |
Clearly Overbury is a star business for Morgan Sindalk but the consistency of earnings and dps puts K under pressure to match MS. |
Btw, MGNS reported record results today and has raised its dividend. I make the p/e at around 10 on today's price. The market reaction has been 'subdued' I would say. Kier is actually up more today than MGNS. |
 It's just you clyde. And me. And maybe a very few others. The market is not excited about Kier atm, partly because the p/e still looks similar to MGNS and partly because the business is still associated with housing, even though this is a miniscule part of Kier's business nowadays. There's also a lot of negativity around UK govt finances; this is slowly being dispelled as the facts come out -- unemployment is not rising, wages are still increasing, and business is still in rude health, not least because the govt has effectively thrown a ton of stimulus into the economy by forcing businesses to raise wages for the lowest paid, and given public sector employees a significant pay rise.
You raised an excellent point in one of your earlier posts about financing costs, and how much of it was due to debt that had now been repaid, and that something like £25m (I forget the exact number and can't be bothered to look right now) would be going straight onto the bottom line in the next set of results.
There is so much positive news waiting in the wings now, including the development of Kier's huge Tempsford estate (a longer-term project, I presume) plus the actual earnings on a record year for Kier. Interim numbers are out in less than a fortnight, and I'm hopeful that Kier will announce an increased dividend too. We should get a lot of action here, either in the run-up to that report, or on the release of the numbers, and maybe even both. I agree with your forecast; £3 looks like a reasonable target, perhaps as soon as the full year numbers -- Kier's year ends in June. |
Also is it just me seeing a big valuation discrepancy now between Kier 600 million market cap and Morgan Sindall 1.7 billion. Both have similar order books but Kiers is government backed and inflation protected. Seems like there is a big gap to the upside to be closed? |
Nice finds below. I have a feeling that after the share price consolidating at this level for a year it is ready to make a big move higher when results are released. For reference month end net debt four years ago was 436 million add on interest expenses and they have dug themselves out of a 600 million hole in four years which is the same as the company is worth at present. Now that debt is pretty much gone, this share is going to start throwing off cash. I can see this doubling pretty quickly. As mentioned the property investment arm also looks like it can generate significant value. Hopefully the share price does start moving or it we will see a US private equity firm step in and take it away. |
more on the salford uni job;
Kier has signed a £41m deal to build a specialist teaching building for health care courses on behalf of the University of Salford.
work is expected to complete by late 2026. |
Have just seen a report that Kier Property has bought The Peoplebuilding in Hemel Hempstead to redevelop as one of its trade and logistics developments -- this is Kier's property division commercial brand that develops smaller commercial/industrial sites for resale. The building is described in most places as 100,000 sq ft (ie big).
The link below is for a brochure on the building when it was being marketed by Savilles for rent. No idea on the cost, but it looks like an impressive asset for Kier Property and this division has typically made much better margins than the rest of the business.
Our favourite construction firm is just getting on with business. |
The UT just settled £286,000 worth of trades fractionally ABOVE the market closing price today, which bodes well for continued buying. Everything is pointing towards a break-out.
In other every-cloud-has-a-silver-lining news, the US sell-out of Ukraine may turn out to be better than expected for the UK on multiple levels -- the UK's military heft, though much diminished by all accounts, is making it an essential partner in Europe and this will, I imagine, ultimately translate into a better trading relationship with the EU. I look fwd to seeing better trade terms for UK businesses. Also, as one of the world's largest 'defence' manufacturers, increasing self-reliance by the EU will create jobs and value here. Bae has also set up manufacturing facilities in Ukraine apparently (not part of the EU, obviously).
It's an unsettling time, needless to say, but let's see what our govt can make of it. A strengthening UK economy is good news for the govt's largest construction contractor. |
Acheson are a tiny firm (88 people) and like many, doesn't have the access to capital that Kier has, as you've pointed out yourself. I think Kier employs about 13,000 btw, and covers practically EVERY aspect of public construction (roads, submarine docks, army bases, schools, nuclear, NHS, flood-defences, town-centres, water infrastructure...). No comparison really. I would say, less competition now, but Acheson won't be noticed -- hundreds of construction firms fail annually, mostly very small businesses, and they are a bit bigger than the hundreds of proprietor-operated businesses that fold and then spring up again with a new name, but still small. |
Acheson construction, in administration, they worked in defence, public sector regulated works , including schools etc , exactly the same areas Kier are working in , they couldn't make a go of it , |
Also, right now we are at a shareprice price break-out for the month and within a penny of breaking out from the three-month high in early December.
As blueclyde has pointed out, we've consolidated around this area for a year now.
Good economic numbers coming through -- the economy has grown fractionally, despite all the media doom-mongering, unemployment has not changed, wages have continued to grow, and I anticipate that the next bit of good news as far as the govt is concerned, will be that the govt has raked in record-breaking tax revenue this January, which will support its build, build, build ambitions. The shareprice break-out is long overdue, and I think that now worries on govt finances are abating, we should see the shares hit Berenberg's price target of 210p fairly soon.
'Defence' shares are up btw, and Kier is building on at least three military sites right now. My guess is that this will be another area of expansion for Kier. Also small nuclear-power sites, renewable power projects and eventually, residential housing -- Kier has several joint-ventures for apartment buildings and many town-regen projects. I think we may be at the beginning of a construction boom. |
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
Hot Features
Premium
