Kibo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yaki] 10/12/2018 14:00

Dear John C

A couple of comments
"...Kibo desperately needs to plug its annual £2-3m cash outflow over the next five years before it sees any income from its projects."

WRONG. As you forget that a return can be realised in two ways - income and CAPITAL. Do you know how much income has Warren Buffet's firm paid over the last 20-30 years - ZERO! Are you saying that his investors had to die of hunger?

"....But basic cash burn is £160,000 per month, plus a minimum of £100,000 pm on development costs."
Can you elaborate where you got the 260k a month figure from? Out of thin air?


OK, I lost interest reading further as is all same baseless and wrong assumptions and conclusions.

Off to do some work and value another multi billion infrastructure project

[catchingmice] 10/12/2018 12:27

cunningfoxPosts: 1,585?Opinion:No OpinionPrice:2.15interesting indeedToday 07:39Let's see how that pans out, LC certainly isn't sitting about twiddling his thumbs waiting for the GoT. Who would have thought it 5 yrs ago, coal miner in Africa, to power supplier ( potentially) in the UK, you couldn't make it up." No you couldn't make it up could you how bad the situation really is "Basil brush talking absolute tosh

[nerdofsteel] 10/12/2018 10:40

I wonder if the next dilutive placing will happen before or just after xmas? Lack of cash must now be a very serious concern for the Company.

[lurker5] 10/12/2018 10:32

Yet more dilution soon. Sepco is looking ahead.

UK Reserve Power news is all very well. Kibo desperately needs to plug its annual £2-3m cash outflow over the next five years before it sees any income from its projects.

But apart from wondering how Med will finance its new plants (Up to £10m for a 20MW plant going by UK Power Reserve figures, which might deliver a £1m annual profit - meaning five will be needed) Kibo has a much bigger near term problem.

The fact is another cash crunch is approaching, and with the delays continuing to build, Sepco's Due Diligence becomes even more necessary.

At the last June balance sheet Kibo had £1.7m cash, and raised another £0.5m in July. After £0.4m trade liabilities, it started out with a net £1.8m.

But basic cash burn is £160,000 per month, plus a minimum of £100,000 pm on development costs. So even if all development has been stopped, cash will have run out by May, but if continuing, cash will be running out next month.

The outflow will continue because it's going to take at least five years from now for even the first of Kibo's coal projects to start generating profits and cash, and their majority shareholders aren't likely to declare a dividend for themselves and Kibo until all is running smoothly a few years later.

That's why Med was going to be crucial to deliver cash flow to plug the gap.
But even that is now going to be delayed by the UK government's moratorium on the reserve power market.

Kibo's basic problem is that eg in the case of MCPP, over 60% of cash generated in the first 13 years will go to repay the 75% bank project loan, leaving only $50m pa cash for all its shareholders. (the maths has been done and posted based on the Jan 2017 IBFS)

And because no project as risky as power generation would ever pay out all the cash it generates, cash available for Kibo (assuming it has 25% - the most share it will get unless it stumps up cash to buy more) will be less than $12.5m.

So the first MCPP dividend Kibo will get might be some $8m, in six years time.

What is it going to do to keep the lights on meanwhile and to meet the development costs for Moz and Bots ?

BFS's for those projects (which, for MCPP was $11m - LC hasn't bothered to tell us what has been spent at Mabesekwa. It only has a PFS , so is going to cost a lot more)

So unless over the next six years Kibo can rake in enough cash to meet that large total of running costs and development costs (not to mention its own contribution to equity) it will go bust. Med doesn't look enough to solve the problem.

Think about it. What is Kibo's current market cap ? - What dilution will be suffered by shareholders meanwhile even if it can raise the cash ?. Its not unrealistic to foresee shares in issue doubled by the time MCPP comes on line. That would mean its eventual dividend to Kibo would be worth only 0.5c per share. Moz and Bots will be smaller, but we have no idea what shares will have to be issued to get them up and running although we can guess, and its not a pretty picture.

THAT is what DD is all about. Sepco is looking ahead. LC has never, since 2012, shown any signs of being able to do so. Any other intelligent 'entity' will do the same.

Why else the panic issue of a grotesquely exaggerated research note?
(I will explain on the other place why it's so crashingly wrong)

In view of all this, anyone wanting a stake in Kibo's projects will want to avoid losing their investment. They will be much safer investing in the projects' unlisted SPV's rather than Kibo itself - which won't help Kibo's cash crisis.

Even if, despite that, they did want a share in Kibo itself, in view of the certainty of being diluted by the fund raisings still to come they would want as big a say and as big a share, as possible, at as low a cost as possible.

Which means more, possibly massive, dilution for the other shareholders.

Its no good denying this as scaremongering. Its all in the Maths !

In the immediate future, if FC on MCPP doesn't happen, then neither will the $3.5m due from Sepco.

And as for getting tough with Sepco. ? Somebody's 'avin a giraffe

I could go on. There are many other things DD will throw up. What reputation does Kibo have with investors so it can it rely on raising funds from them ? What reputation does its brokers have ? What reputation does LC have ? Why did the corporate team at Novum, who've 'supported' Kibo (under different brokers) ever since it listed, finally 'walk' ? Why has no other broker (including Nomad Ambrian who has respected research capabilities) ever wanted to take on Kibo ?

A few newcomers, unblinkered by all the uninformed ramping and LC's smoke-and-mirrors bluster, have spotted the snags - eg as Swifty points out (being trashed as usual by the usual innumerate clappies) LC has been driving Kibo up an investment dead-end, with never enough funds to ensure his projects get over the line. Even then, after all its investment and effort, its not certain how much cash dividends Kibo will get out of them when up and running. Hence his desperate last-minute idea to plug the gap with Med. It might prove too late.

Doing the maths and looking ahead, it's now impossible to see Kibo's shares ever getting back to 10p. I believe 5p is the most to expect even if all goes well, but only in five years time. But meanwhile they coud continue on down, and dilution will get heavier and heavier.

Some Basics - Don't forget Kibo doesn't 'own' its projects. It is merely a 'sponsor', charged with attracting investors, together with a chance to invest itself. So whatever happens to Kibo won't necessarily affect its projects. Kibo could go bust, but its projects could continue. What we don't know is the terms of its 'concessions' as a sponsor', and what happens to them if it does go bust, nor whether, for instance, Shumba would retrieve ownership of Mabesekwa.

[catchingmice] 10/12/2018 09:44

Posts: 3,189Opinion:No OpinionPrice:2.00RE: Rather pleasedToday 09:39Time for LC to deliver something. Buying stuff is easy. Boring update. Needs progress and action.Very true indeed BB I actually think LC has lost the plot and this is the can just being kicked a little further down the road.Very poor RNS which means nothing whatsoever no value just ZILCH

[mikemike16] 01/12/2018 00:15

Perspective

The sales today are under .02% of stock issued.

I suspect the MM hold more than that as a float, now they have more.

[catchingmice] 30/11/2018 16:42

Potter25Posts: 1,565Opinion:No OpinionPrice:2.00RE: I am guessing that is a 500k buy.Today 16:21Does that mean big buy ordering in the backgroundWhy don't you guess the 500k share trade is a SELL which it is you plank.Not rocket science is it looking at the price followed by the tiny tiny BUY.But I guess anyone who invests in EDL is clueless anyway Mr.Potter

[magnet26] 30/11/2018 15:15

These guys greedy for a lower buy in when they can get in at 2 already. Dont miss the boat davidpines another paid poster. 'yous hearing me geezer?'

[magnet26] 30/11/2018 15:14

Big sell and the price hasnt budged

[davidpines] 30/11/2018 15:06

1p is coming here soonBig sell today and more to followWhen sepco dnt buy in or need more time this will collapseHouse of cardss

[catchingmice] 30/11/2018 11:52

LC Strikes again with past RNS statements saying this saying that but doesn't deliver by the dates he puts out.Diabolical of a CEO in my view and it's no wonder the markets turn a blind eye to this leg shaking bandit.' Could he be one of the clappers as I wouldn't bet against it ' ?

[aimchimp] 30/11/2018 11:42

Posting articles from months past and claiming they are new news to try and spur some buying very misleading by the happy clappers.

[catchingmice] 30/11/2018 11:12

Well on Sunday it's the only away game I can walk to that's quicker than driving by car.Just a 1 mile walk and a pub crawl on the way upto the Bridge followed by a Fulham victory 3 - 0' yous hearing me UK or not geezer '

[uknighted] 30/11/2018 10:58

Wimbo selling out is less likely than Fulham being top of the Premiership in May 2019!
Mice yous getting the message!
Ps the tinker man has had his day!

[catchingmice] 30/11/2018 10:48

RE: SepcoToday 10:32Miz ur putting head in sand again, the company stated in an RNs 30/11, therefore any delay deal or no deal has to be RNs first thing after that date, do you understand that. Ur Wimbledon knows it why do you think he has done his usual disappearance actExactly swifty and considering the Womble was always up at the crack of dawn posting African news stories one after another then why has he suddenly gone quiet.Is it because he sold out with sonic once the group was formed ?Still games being played here by a few clappers it's clear as day.' yous getting the message out there from the mice ' ?

[catchingmice] 30/11/2018 09:41

Only 1 Trade and it's a SELL on the day of the Sepco buy in.Is this just porkies again from LC about another timeline that has slipped by once again ?The market really doesn't trust a word he says

[nerdofsteel] 30/11/2018 09:20

target price 1p

[uknighted] 29/11/2018 13:01

Aim I’ve been invested here for 5 years, that is why I post. I also make comments about your cottager friend!

[aimchimp] 29/11/2018 09:45

Who are you to say whether some one posting here is right or wrong you are not the judge and jury of who can and can not post a view on a discussion board it freedom of speech and what of the other ones posting on these boards but you singly make commentary against my postings did I touch a nerve UKN and you were one who was hoodwinked in with the ramping and are now bitter you were led up the garden path so easily by a group of strangers you believed their advices?

[aimchimp] 29/11/2018 09:33

So it's somewhere between 1.7p and 15p now they are saying if SEPCO buy in PMSL they really do not have any clue."Ls0n1cb00mb0yPosts: 6,157Opinion: No OpinionPrice: 2.00RE: Back to Research NoteWed 22:52Well you are right BCL I worked off the back of JD's 94m shares butnyou are correct we should be adding 112m new shares.This means in the First Equity forecast they are using a buy in price of about 1.7p a share over the 15%. I cannot possibly see it being that low personally.I reckon 12.5p to 15p is what we need and should be looking for."

[catchingmice] 29/11/2018 09:29

It's comedy gold at its best over on LSE.What a bunch they are clueless as they come

[uknighted] 29/11/2018 09:12

Yes, but the alleged “hoodwinking and misleading” occurs on the LSE bulletin board!