Kibo Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lurker5] 25/6/2019 19:17

Expected return on Bordersley
Clappies over there getting all excited on news that is merely progress on existing news ! As if signing PPA gets them anywhere knowing the value to Kibo.
On announced figures the numbers are:
Capex £3.6m. A gross return of £700,000 pa gives irr 16.2% - NPV (20yrs @5% disc rate) £4.6m - in line with announced by Kibo earlier. (£16-19m for a 20MW site)
If 65% funded by loans (@5% as paid by PeakGen) loan repayment over 10 yrs = £290,000 pa. Rest of capex funded by 'outsiders' via equity or loan notes. They'll want equivalent of at least 8% return pa = £100,000 pa.
Net cash income shared between Kibo and MED = £310,000 pa for first 10 years.
of which 60% = £186,000 pa to Kibo.
(ie- as I forecast - won't quite pay LC's salary !)
On the remaining 26.3MW in the pipeline (assuming numbers are pro-rata) Kibo would get an additional £978,000 pa (All before tax - though there'll be breaks)
So this first tranche will fill about half Kibo's cash drain before any spend developing other projects.
But not for another year, assuming all goes to plan (others in peaking power say the market is getting tougher)
So still a long way to go to avoid further share dilution just to keep the lights on and no contribution at all to developing Moz and Bots !

[catchingmice] 25/6/2019 16:06

This Sonic Geezer is absolute clueless about everything he's called everything wrong from years back and now thinks he's an expert in charting.King ramper & now King deramperWhat a Clown

[aimchimp] 25/6/2019 14:53

PPA signed with a company who agree to find a buyer for the 5mw they will be producing Q1 2020 but getting ramped as some sort of net worth to KIBO of 5 billion PMSL people will get spiked again by the pump and dumpers rinse and repeat.

[yaki] 25/6/2019 14:36

Ahmedbin69
Member since: 02 Jun 2019

Not even a month.

[yaki] 25/6/2019 14:17

Chimp
Wrong - it is not RESERVE power gen BUT FLEXIBLE power gen plant.

Will generate when the spot prices are high enough to warrant it. Hence the PPA just signed!

Which means that my price of 10p is probably too conservative ....

[catchingmice] 25/6/2019 13:13

I have never known so many clowns on a bulletin board as this KIBO CLAN.JD, SONIC, WOMBLE, SMELL, AERIAL, SLEEPYDAVE, MADMAXMIKE ect.The list is endless what a bunch of half wits coming out with the same baloney after the last 3 - 4yrsThe MICE

[aimchimp] 25/6/2019 12:06

YAKI this is reserve power generator as you know which are not generating all the time and these are targeted to be up and running towards Q1 2020 if there are no delays or hold ups to push it back further so how are they going to keep the lights on and progress the other projects do you think when they can't raise placing cash at this level? Come on where's the money going to come from?

[yaki] 25/6/2019 10:39

Let's do some rough calcs

1 MWh x 24 x 365 = 8.76GWh per year

Assume is used 75% of the time = 6.57 GWh a year.

So how much you pay for GWh, say at 10p KWh, that's 100k

So 5 MW plant can earn (BASED ON ABOVE) - 3.3m in REVENUE

If use same margin assumptions as Peak - 1.2m profit, ie 730k for KIBO's 60%

Enough to cover running cost of the Board etc,

Anyone any views/comments etc

[yaki] 25/6/2019 10:02

Impressive gross margin though at 63% and operating margin of 37%!!

And they run diesel plants which are much more expensive than gas!!!

[yaki] 25/6/2019 09:47

Re:
Peak Gen for instance after operating for 7 years has 10 in no 20MW plants which last year generated £15.8m revenue and after tax profit of £3.7m - a pretty good margin, but the important thing for Kibo is gross return on investment, which in Peak Gen's case was only 10% - which it was able to gear up through borrowing some 50% on its £55m of generating plant, and on which it paid 5-6% interest.

I thought the 15.8m was for 2017?

[lurker5] 24/6/2019 13:25

JD IS a fool Mr Yak. He needs to be outed as such, because unlike many on the boards who, although maybe not qualified in business or share analysis and why should they be, are here to learn and discuss, J D Wag marched on when Mabeseweka was acquired and immediately pronounced on the whole of Kibo, showing the while that he had not the slightest clue about Kibo's business model or the way its finances work, nor practically every other aspect of it that he's opined on. The most recent example ? -
ie his latest re Bordersley "The big plus in that RNS was debt and Equity wasn’t even mentioned. And when I look at the Gross Margins that the likes of Statkraft (in the annual accounts I posted below) are making I’m hardly surprised that funding isn’t an issue. Their Gross Margins nearly made me fall off my seat they are so high.......I can see why LC wants a slice of this cake."

Total Rubbish. The Statkraft report he posted says nothing about margins in its generating business, except they were lower than the rest of its very different other businesses, and so less than an overall 1.7% !

And then he goes on to say "For those interested in such things (I am) looks like we will be using Jenbacher Turbines which are very good quality stuff."

Mr Wag. Jenbacher makes 'reciprocating' gas engines - not turbines. An 'interested' kindergarten toddler would know the difference, yet he claims to be an 'engineer ! I'm afraid he obviously isn't. He's certainly not Chartered, and definitely doesn't have a degree. I guess he's a technician, if that, who somehow got involved with Mabeseweka, and thought that qualified him to pronounce on Kibo in the way of a bar-room braggart.

If he knew anything at all on the subject, he would have have looked at the published financial info for typical peak power plants in the UK that would guide to what Bordersley can expect, and they are the operating subsidiaries of the large UK groups, such as UK Power Reserve, and Peak Gen. They're all available on the Companies House website.

Peak Gen for instance after operating for 7 years has 10 in no 20MW plants which last year generated £15.8m revenue and after tax profit of £3.7m - a pretty good margin, but the important thing for Kibo is gross return on investment, which in Peak Gen's case was only 10% - which it was able to gear up through borrowing some 50% on its £55m of generating plant, and on which it paid 5-6% interest.

You can apply that to Bordersley aand the others LC hopes for, along with the results of UK Power Reserve's operating cos, and arrive at the sort of results I've already posted - namely peanuts in the way of 'income' for Kibo that will keep LC's salary paid and the lights on.

But someone who thinks "The big plus in that (Bordersley) RNS was debt and Equity wasn’t even mentioned" just wouldn't understand. Its why he and his ilk (along with you-know-who others) need to be ousted from these boards.

And just one opinion of my own ! Some of the peak power operators in the UK (who've been there for up to 7 years and likely to have wrapped up the best sites and who are ten times any size Kibo can hope for) are saying the peak power market is facing 'tougher times' and lots of competition! So, as usual, LC is late to the party.

('Parties' ? Remember that ? A £1 party by now acc to the old timers on LSE !)

If LC had proved he could manage, he might be commended for his expansion plans. But he hasn't got the funds. And even if the market is persuaded to give him the necessary, current shareholders would be diluted out of existence. The fact is a 'manager' of an AIM company has an overall duty, if he wants to expand, to do so in a way that will enhance the price of his shares. LC has shown that he hasn't a clue how to do that. Shareholders should have ousted him a long time ago.

[yaki] 24/6/2019 10:27

John C,

why do you need to get personal - "I see the fool JD", "the numpty" etc

Just state your views and facts and let the others to decide for themselves?

lurker5 24 Jun '19 - 10:13 - 1364 of 1364
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I see the fool JD (about whose ignorant posts much will be said another time) is saying Kibo raised another £500,000 from Sanderson so far this year. The numpty doesn't realise it was consideration for buying back Sand's investment in MDC (which owns the coal mine), so isn't cash. So my comments above still stand.Kibo has already run out of cash and drawing down yet more Sand's facility
(By the way, via the above Sand has acquired anther 16% in Kibo only because LC has valued the Mbeya coal mine at an absurdly high $66m. Its easy to see why the auditors haven't agreed, because that assumes a) that coal is supplied to another power station on the same terms and for as big a power station as would have been to MCPP and b) that someone else would buy the mine for its scope to 'supply coal' to other Tanz customers. Both whopping assumptions and at the moment highly unlikely.
So that 'buy' back from Sands has been to the latter's benefit and definitely not to the benefit of Kibo shareholders.
Once again, all this confirms the reason why no Kibo directors have been buying any shares in their own company. JD and his fellow fools, 'take note'

[aimchimp] 24/6/2019 10:26

DEECAY / UKN you can belittle all you like to but it does not change the situation that you cannot raise monies at this price and the monies are running out so what is "banal" about commenting on these as facts? You do not want to hear the truth and like an ostrich bury your head in the sand.

[lurker5] 24/6/2019 10:13

I see the fool JD (about whose ignorant posts much will be said another time) is saying Kibo raised another £500,000 from Sanderson so far this year. The numpty doesn't realise it was consideration for buying back Sand's investment in MDC (which owns the coal mine), so isn't cash. So my comments above still stand.Kibo has already run out of cash and drawing down yet more Sand's facility
(By the way, via the above Sand has acquired anther 16% in Kibo only because LC has valued the Mbeya coal mine at an absurdly high $66m. Its easy to see why the auditors haven't agreed, because that assumes a) that coal is supplied to another power station on the same terms and for as big a power station as would have been to MCPP and b) that someone else would buy the mine for its scope to 'supply coal' to other Tanz customers. Both whopping assumptions and at the moment highly unlikely.
So that 'buy' back from Sands has been to the latter's benefit and definitely not to the benefit of Kibo shareholders.
Once again, all this confirms the reason why no Kibo directors have been buying any shares in their own company. JD and his fellow fools, 'take note'

[uknighted] 24/6/2019 09:58

I assume Aimchimp spent some money at the weekend and needs to pay the piggybank back, hence all the banal posts today!

[aimchimp] 24/6/2019 09:54

Another thing that needs paying

[yaki] 24/6/2019 09:36

another rns - renewables

[mortimer7] 24/6/2019 09:23

On first glance I can't see a "Going Concern" statement in todays results.

I realise todays RNS does not necessarily include the full financial statements from the annual report, so it will be interesting to see what is said when they're available on the website.

[aimchimp] 24/6/2019 09:13

JD trying to gloss over the lack of monies again it seem now why would they be doing this anyone that can read a balance sheet can add up how much monies at end of last year and how much they can draw down from Sandersons and how much they pay a year in admin alone last year as guide to how much is now led in bank!!