Keywords Studios Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 23/11/2018 12:41

:o)) Quite right, I used the 85c figure in error.

But the correct P/E of 15.6 is still pretty good.

[aimingupward2] 23/11/2018 11:57

75p x 13.6 = £10.20. We're not quite down to that yet.

[rivaldo] 23/11/2018 10:18

Edison's analyst forecast that using reasonable assumptions on organic growth, and with further acquisitions from its plentiful financial headroom, KWS could grow its EPS to around 85c exiting next year.

That equates to around 75p EPS, leaving KWS on a forward P/E of 13.6 assuming delivery on acquisitions etc.

The risk/reward equation has certainly shifted at these levels.

[jamesjjj] 22/11/2018 09:33

Ramridge I could not agree more. I am down to one holding as sold one I bought only yesterday SMT (a reflection of current market volatility) on a small profit as nasdaq futures were showing weakness. The other has a tight stop loss. Pretty savage out there.

[bamboo2] 22/11/2018 09:09

Shorts have increased recently.

BennBridge Ltd 0.57% 0.22% 19 Nov 2018
Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited 0.73% 0.13% 2 Nov 2018
Polar Capital LLP 1.17% 0.16% 16 Nov 2018
SFM UK Management LLP 1.01% 0.15% 3 Oct 2018
Total 3.48%

[ramridge] 22/11/2018 08:58

jamesjjj - i think this is a very sensible and risk based attitude.

I have landed on this BB because my system has flagged up KWS as one to look at closely. Well it has dropped over 50% since 1/10, when the market correction started. Pretty savage.
Why? IMO the market is pretty harsh on any stock with a high/ very high PE. Since the 50% drop, PE is now a more palatable 25 which looks OK provided there is continued eps growth.
At the start of the correction, the key question to me was, is this just a correction and the underlying bull run will continue, or... is this the start of a full bear period and we have heading towards a 20%+ further drop?

Today, I still think it is 50/50. There is no evidence either way. The signals are pointing equally in either direction.

I have been in cash for some months now and have no more than 10% of my money in one/ two shares.

I am thinking of taking a small holding with KWS, but prepared to turn on a dime if the ill wind blows south.

Remember capital preservation is rule 1 and rule 2 as the old sage from across the pond keeps reminding us.

[jamesjjj] 21/11/2018 19:36

Bamboo, it is a pretty savage market out there with lots of volatility. At times like this I adopt a pretty cautious approach to limit exposure and therefore risk. I am dipping in on a limited basis where I think an opportunity may exist but prefer to keep a tight rein afterwards. If I did not do that I would have been wiped out with some of the stocks by holding on to them. I have now only two positions which I took out this morning both fortunately in profit LTG and SMT otherwise I am cashed out. I feel KWS has potential but I have made mistakes in the past in liking a company too much and letting confirmation bias get the better part of me. Nowadays I view any company only good if the market believes it is good also and have no favourites.I did think and stated so in a previous thread that the major indices would probably backfill which is what has happened adding pressure onto stocks like KWS. I think we will get some mini rallies in between as the indices try to breakout but do think that it will be vulnerable to reverse until or when we get a Brexit deal

[mp79] 21/11/2018 12:21

Why someone by lots of 1 share?

[phowdo] 21/11/2018 09:52

My target is still 800p considering the falls by sector leaders EA, ATVI, UBI.

[bamboo2] 21/11/2018 09:44

James, I think you are wise to be cautious.
My chart shows potential turns, 22/11/2018 and 29/11/2018
So maybe a tradeable low tomorrow?

[jamesjjj] 21/11/2018 09:39

sold out kws just above break even. Still showing weakness. Will wait to see how it develops first

[jamesjjj] 20/11/2018 22:06

Scooper although we are not out of the woods yet, there were some encouraging signs of support in the midst of poor market sentiment. As a general rule good stocks will tend to go test previous support and try to consolidate which it is showing signs of doing. There is no doubt the fundamentals are good, just needs to start to show an upturn in relative strenght.

[scooper72] 20/11/2018 21:37

Me too. Didn't quite get your price. But 1170p still not too bad.

[jamesjjj] 20/11/2018 18:27

Decided to dip back in and bought some at 1138 on DMA. Hard to say no at that price looking at risk - reward. Encouraging buying towards close. We will see.

[stumbleupon] 20/11/2018 10:55

It will come back up again

[jamesjjj] 20/11/2018 09:22

for what its worth I have been 100% cashed out since yesterday. Sold out my 2 remaining holdings which both have dropped considerably since then. I personally do not average down I sell out. As I said in my previous post KWS is not for the faint hearted at the moment. Fundamentals at a time like this go out of the window and if we get a no confidence vote they will go further out of the window. I am standing back for the time being.

[ali47fish] 16/11/2018 09:25

have we reached the bottom here or deos it remain cloudy? -any insights and how you are positioning your investing-any likely forthcoming news from the company?

[bulltradept] 15/11/2018 09:09

Yes James, I am with you now.

[jamesjjj] 14/11/2018 20:46

Scooper honestly better to make a mistake and learn from it than to never feel you ever made a mistake. We all make mistakes. KWS was fooling most as it traded in a range for some time giving a false sense of security. The way I try to cover it is it breaks support or an MA Im out.It does not guarantee it will not bounce back but it keeps your losses manageable.For what its worth eg I bought simply biz a few weeks ago. was in profit , stop loss at break even. stop loss was triggered. Since then it has dropped further. Made no profit but no loss either.
Kws as said before I believe will come back in time but until there is some sort of volatility contraction it may not be for the faint hearted

[jamesjjj] 14/11/2018 20:30

bulltradept,

"There is nothing wrong in concentrating on a select few stocks provided you are not overexposed on one."
what I meant by that is that say you had 50k invested and 3 stocks in total.2 had 5k each with 40k on the other one. Your exposure would be 80% geared towards one stock. Great if that stock does well, but absolutely disastrous if that stock fails. Nothing to do with time frames but everything to do with exposure and risk.It is an exaggerated example but it illustrates what I am trying to say.

[bulltradept] 14/11/2018 19:47

Jamesjjj,

"There is nothing wrong in concentrating on a select few stocks provided you are not overexposed on one."


Hi, I don't quite follow your initial comment here. Do you mean if you take a large portion of your pot, but only trade it on very short time frames?

If so, then yes I see would agree as long as you trade it within a set of rules etc.

[scooper72] 14/11/2018 16:52

I'll live and learn. Ultimately I've made more than I've lost with KWS. Just with a bit more sense it could have been more profitable. From last nov 17 to August this year the little moves up and supports were much easier to manage. The current volatility is much harder to gauge. Will be interesting to see if bamboo2 was right about 1200 being a support level. Obviously wish I had held my nerve yesterday but that's hindsight.

[jamesjjj] 14/11/2018 14:16

bulltradept you are potentially right in one sense that may be a reason why people lose money. I see the main reason been a risk management or a lack of. There is nothing wrong in concentrating on a select few stocks provided you are not overexposed on one. More importantly have strict rules of exit no matter what. If a stock falls below a certain amount ie3, 4, 5% max 8% below your buy point get out no matter what. If it goes back up so be it. You make money by not losing money. Most of my successful trades I bought in and was in profit the same day. I prefer to take short term losses and fight another day. Had I held on to KWS as it fell my losses would have been colossal so fortunately as I follow strict rules I sold out.

[jamesjjj] 14/11/2018 14:06

when I said overhang i was referring to the fact that as the price dropped a lot of people will have bought on the way down and not sold out.They will now have a mindset of being happy just to break even and may impede the run u. Having said that I also mentioned as the drop was huge a lot of holders will have been shook out and be too scared to buy back in helping it rise up.